Raamdeo Agrawal Shares His Sense On The Mkt As We Head Into Samvat 2078 | Market Masters | CNBC-TV18

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2021년 11월 삼바트(Samvat) 2078을 앞두고 진행된 CNBC-TV18 Market Masters 특집 대담이다. 두 출연자 모두 지난 1년간 인도 증시의 강세와 리테일 투자자 급증을 긍정적으로 평가했다. 주식 계좌 수 추이: 2007년 약 1,000만 개 → 2012년 2,000만 → 2020년 4,000만 → 2021년 9월 7,000만 돌파. 특히 2021년 9월 한 달 신규 계좌 약 280만 개로 구조적 변화라고 설명했다. 조정 가능성: Raamdeo는 올해 조정이 올 것이며 다음 디왈리(약 1년 뒤)까지 수익률이 10~15%에 그칠 수 있다고 봤다. Manish는 경기 사이클상 시장이 이미 고점이라 보기엔 이르다며 강세장 종료를 부정했다. 경기 사이클: 시장이 기업이익 사이클과 인플레이션·금리보다 먼저 반응하며, 지금은 경기 확장 초기라는 진단이다. 정부·중앙은행의 초저금리·완화 재정이 배경이며, GST 징수액 월 약 3만 크로어 등 세수 호조를 근거로 들었다. 섹터 전망: 특정 테마(신기술·디지털 기업)는 현재 밸류에이션이 과도하나 4~5년 내 이익 실현 여부에 따라 갈릴 수 있다고 봤다. 금융(은행) 섹터는 신용 성장 15~17%와 부실 비용 감소가 맞물리면 수익성 대폭 개선이 가능하다는 긍정적 시각이다. 투자 원칙: 장기 보유, 적정 밸류에이션 종목 선별, 올바른 투자 기간 설정을 강조했다. 단기 모멘텀 추종과 사업 이해 없는 투자에 대해서는 경계했다.

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01. well if at the start of summer 2077 you had simply bought a nifty etf you would have made 40 by now and if you bought the mid cap etf you would have made 70 and of course if you were a smart stock picker you would have made any time between 2x to 10x of your money but are we in for an encore or is it time to be cautious as we start the new sunworth hello and welcome to this summer 2078 market master special i am arnold single and ahead of the new year what are the top investment bets joining me today are two of india's biggest market voices manish johani director of enam holdings and ramdev vagaval chairman and co-founder of mutual assault services gentlemen thanks a lot for for joining me on this uh you know special show ramdev how are you feeling about the market as we start the new somewhat it's been an extraordinary year a lot of money has been made as i was saying the index itself is up 40 and of course a lot of stocks have gone up even four or five times uh a lot of retail money has come into the market so you know as we step into the new somewhat uh of course first of all season's greetings how are you feeling about the market so i know let me first wish you a very happy diwali very happy and uh to all the viewers of cnbc a very very prosperous new year now you know this year has been a very defining year in a way that uh you know one of the apart from the general recovery and whatever has happened to the stock market liquidity interest rates and everything but one of the most distinctive feature may be because i belong to this particular community is the participation by retail so let me give you some numbers you know the uh the number of account holders in 2000 uh in 2007 it was 10 million accounts demand accounts were just about 10 million in 2007.

02. it it took five years to double to 20 million in 2012 and then in 2020 it became 40. so it took another eight years so about nine percent compounded then from 20 uh 20 march i'm saying uh that was 40 million now uh 21 became 55 million in last 12 months and now in august other stuff sorry september of 21 it has crossed 70 million so from 40 to 70 has happened in one and a half years and we are growing at the rate of the highest edition has been september 21 of 2.8 million accounts so what i'm saying is this is a this is a structural shift in the in the market and we must not ignore this when the policy maker should not ignore this it is extremely powerful and it is going to have very long-term replications in the in the markets and more importantly in the economy if it is harnessed well okay if it's harnessed well uh you know you've really hit the nail on the head but that gets me thinking manish season's greetings to you and your family and your team you know let me spin it the other way but this this this is a money which has not seen correction and maneesh has you ramdev i know bull market corrections can be lethal forget about a bear market even the bull market corrections can take out some of the best market participants so at some point uh considering that we haven't had any recent correction in this market a decent collection in this market are we setting ourselves for some kind of disappointment or do you think this bull market is really different and it can just go on without any correction like the u.s market has done yes i know so first of all a very happy diwali to you to my dear friend ramdev and all his colleagues to all my colleagues in the markets investors viewers everyone it's been really a fantastic year and if i look back on last diwali when we've all worried about our health even lives of family members it's a very dramatic change from worrying about health to worrying about how much correction can be there in our wealth right now so first of all just thanks to god for what has happened and the countries come out of this unscathed and looking forward to better times on your question on markets so first of all i just want to put in context that markets go through cycles where typically the stock market will take cognizance of the rate of change first it's then followed by the corporate profit cycle which peaks much later than the markets and finally inflation will you know blow out our interest rates will blow out and that will cause you know the final climax of the economy cycle by which time the market should have already you know corrected given that we've just started the cycle last year i think it's a bit too early to say that the market is peaking out it's run ahead of itself it's a normal economic expansion uh which is happening and like in all new cycles you started with both the central bank as well as the government unleashing whatever they could to revive the economy so you have the lowest possible interest rates and the loosest possible fiscal stance that the country can have so it's natural that the market's excited if you also put in context the reforms which are going on the way the corporate sector balance sheets have got cleaned up with the unprecedented gush of profits and money which has come in so you take the largest business houses the best performing stocks last year were from the tata group reliance of course has done very well jindal vedanta you name the business house animal spirits are back big time also the new entrepreneurial energy which has come out in the it space with the advent of private equity money who themselves are making so much money that they are ready to reinvest back so this whole economic cycle is in a way started the government's balance sheet is looking better because tax collections are running ahead of themselves we just saw gst at unprecedented you know one like thirty thousand crores a month so all the signals are now there that the economic expansion is going to really gather pace and as we have moved from a more unorganized to an organized sector uh benefiting and industries have consolidated the profit cycle that you will see in the listed companies and particularly the larger ones is going to be unbelievable okay so i for one uh while you're always cautious about corrections in the market i don't think it's right to say the bull market will end we'll go to a bear market very quickly and people will get burned and it's the nature of markets as ram deji rightly said that if you know seven crore investors are in all of them cannot by definition beat the market someone will win someone will lose it's the nature of capitalism the good news is they are all youngsters and it's better to make your losses at a young age than for oldies like us to make losses and you live with it because you will live with that volatility you'll come out as smarter and a better investor and if you just stay the course that's all i would say that don't lose faith in equities it's not a three-month six-month game you get in get out stay the course over a period of time you will make money you cannot make what you made last year you will see a correction this year the market may not give you more than 10 15 return till next diwali but don't lose heart just find the right stocks buy what you think you understand buy a valuation which is sensible and have a time horizon which is correct i think that's all one can say at this point okay but let's be clear about it and let's be honest about it that's the risk right a lot of investment over the last three months has been about momentum chasing a lot of people do not understand businesses but uh they are making money so they do not care uh you know whether it was say an iax or an mcax or even irctc the platform companies some of the recent ipos a lot of people have made a lot of money but so do you think some of these you know new age stocks will will still continue to do well or some of the old sectors which are beginning to make come comeback say something like a real estate or something like psu banks or do you think that will make a you know huge comeback or you know this year will belong to them your thoughts yeah so i know what we have seen is that markets have a way of churning and uh see every bull market has a epic center you know there is one theme which which is overbearing in the attack bull market like uh like in two thousand it was all the tech companies in python a it was not tech at all it was all the infra and you know commodity companies in 92 with all the junk companies so uh so there is a way i mean what what with the story of this bulldog we don't know i mean only little later will come to know uh like are these the digital companies like china and america have seen that looks to be very high quality that lots of digital companies will come and they might be lost working right now but in next four five years uh you know they could become seriously large profit making companies and the ones which will make profit of course they will they will go from the current listing exorbitant listing to even much higher levels and uh where uh if by chance things don't work out for them they're not able to make they're not able to turn around their business model then obviously people will be disappointed then people incur losses and the pro the prices will uh at the end of it the prices will go to where it should be so but then by that time you would have lived another 24 36 months of this bull holder and meanwhile you would have seen some kind of a crazy spike so that's what we have seen in last four what you call bull runs this is the fifth one i would say in my life and uh what will drive this particular building is it going to be the uh the credit credit cost and credit cycle on both sides credit expansion and credit cost reduction it could also be unprecedented for the banks private as well as public because they have gone through really serious cleaning up of the balance sheet and a serious decline in the current growth now as the economic picks up can we see uh say 15 17 credit expansion and credit cost reduction of another 15 17 uh every every year and that can expand the profitability to unprecedented level and we can see a major value in the financial so we don't know i mean there can be a lot of stories in a well-performing economy uh you cannot say what will do well i mean you have to be lucky to to get on tour to be riding some companies which are whose earnings are going to be growing very rapidly and they are available to you at reasonable prices now only later on you'll come to know that where the market was completely irrational in terms of valuing them so it is very tough to say what will uh what will happen the irrationality which is visible today in some segments of the market whether they become more irrational or they will correct in some other segment which is not doing so well that will come we have to have a whole process and follow our process of buying and stick to your uh framework and i think that is the way to go about it okay gentlemen uh thanks so sorry bro you know there