저자: 워런버핏 · 외국인
요약 보기
버핏은 2017년 2월 연준 금리 인상 전망에 대해 금리 인상 속도는 느릴 것이라고 보며, 미국 금리가 유럽보다 크게 높아지면 수출과 통화 측면에서 부정적 결과가 생길 수 있다고 말했다. 경제 상황 진단: 미국 GDP 성장률은 연 2%대 초반을 유지하고 있다. 분기 수치는 계절조정 영향이 커서 전년 대비 수치를 보는 것이 낫다고 설명했다. 금리 정책: 제로 금리는 긴급 상황에서나 쓰는 조치라 이제는 올릴 만한 시점이라고 봤다. 다만 금리를 크게 올리는 것은 신중해야 한다고 강조했다. 투자 판단: 버핏은 연준의 금리 결정을 기준으로 투자하지 않는다고 밝혔다. 프레시전캐스트파츠 인수 등 개별 결정에도 금리 전망은 고려하지 않았다고 말했다. 주식 시장: 금리가 100bp 정도 오르는 것만으로는 주식 평가를 바꾸지 않는다고 했다. 금리가 향후 20년간 100bp 높은 수준으로 고정된다면 주식을 적극 매수하겠다는 입장이다. 대상 자산 관련 예측: 미국채금리는 단기적으로 상승 가능성을 언급했으나 방향을 확정하지 않았다. 주식 시장과 관련해서는 특정 방향의 단기 예측을 하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
as the Fed prepares to meet next week to decide on whether to hike interest rates in the United States CNBC Africa's Becky Quick did ask billionaire Warren Buffett about his views on the potential interest rate announcement let's take a look they've never asked me to be a member of the Fed maybe that's a bit I don't think about it they're correct I've always thought they'd be slow just because of the effect on on currencies around the world if our interest rates keep getting stronger when Europe is trying to keep them low one thing you have to be a little careful about in GDP statistics when we talk about earnings of companies we're always talking this year versus last year we say there are five percent with GDP when we talk quarterly we're talking about sequential if you look at year-over-year figures on GDP there too in a fraction % of they've been that way quarter after quarter after quarter but the quarterly figures you know when you multiply something by four little changes gets get multiplied a lot so the seasonal adjustments both of the current period in the last period they control those quarterly numbers up a lot when you report sequentially I think in a way it's better to look at them year over a year and year over year we've been in the Toulon two and a half percent range now for I don't know six quarters or something like that so I would would be a little careful in getting too excited about quarterly statistics in either direction as long as you're looking at them sequentially so you think the economy is not necessarily as strong as the most recent numbers that we think I think we're still on that path we've been on for six years where it's growing at 22 a little bit better than two percent annually and that's not a bad rate it's but it's not a booming right either and i think that's about where we still are so it may not be a booming wait for the economy but it's probably also not an economy that warrants zero percent interest rates I mean that's a fire sale that's an emergency sort of situation why not move off of 0 they're probably well I don't know I mean but like I say if our rates got substantially higher than Europe's you know I would not think that would necessarily be good for for exports for this country i mean in economics Shinken you can never just do one thing there's always and then what and I think and the the and then what a moving race up substantially while Europe's tried to keep them very low could have some consequences down the line do you think this bed has a different job have things really gotten that much more global and kind of out of feds control then they have to think about everything you know I mean that's their job and they're looking a lot of things that I'm not looking at then they get more better information I'm sure on lots of things so I don't envy their job and they to some extent maybe by their commentary they're sort of pushed themselves into something where they have to do a little bit something here but I would not be terribly aggressive if I were in that position so there are some people who are in the camp of raised at 25 basis points and then back off and don't do anything for a long time which is fine in theory but the market doesn't know exactly what you're doing until they watch on a day-to-day basis I've never made a decision based on what I think the Fed is going to do near term or longer-term I mean it just does not enter when we decided to buy precision castparts there wasn't one word of conversation with my partner Charlie or with our Board of Directors about that action however and the same thing goes with our persons of fellows petroleum 1266 in May when I spoke with you and Bill Gates in Omaha for the Berkshire annual meeting you both said that whether the stock market was fairly valued or not dependent on what happened with interest rates correct so if interest rates go up from here does that change your perspective about the stock market I go 100 basis points they go up 400 or 500 basis points so that changes a lot but at this point even if we were to see 100 like a 1-bit points if not stocks if interest rates if you guarantee me interest rates would be official at 100 basis points higher than this for the next 20 years I'd be buying stocks hand over fist
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