저자: MichaelBurry—발언자소속은자막상'MichaelIga/Burry'로표기,영상제목기준MichaelBurry로판단 · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 관련 주식(엔비디아, 팔란티어)이 2년간 급등해 버블 우려가 있으며, 과거 2005년 주택 CDS 공매도 사례를 언급. 팔란티어는 실질 AI 기업이 아니고 밸류에이션이 과도하다고 주장, 엔비디아는 AI 전용 설계가 아닌 운 좋은 기업으로 평가. AI 투자 열풍이 역사적 고점에 근접해 약 2년 내 정점을 볼 것으로 예상하며, 팔란티어 2년 만기 50달러 풋옵션 보유(약 1천만 달러 규모로 명시). 패시브 자금 비중 증가로 하락 시 동반 폭락 위험 지적, 의료주 분산 투자 제안. 구글 검색 수익모델 위기, 미국 국가부채 문제 언급하나 달러 기축통화 지위로 즉각 위기는 부정.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone, today I want to discuss 3 of the issues with you, first, AI4 stocks have been rising wildly for two years, should they now earn off the market? Second, why by 2018 Michael Iga, the legendary investor of Financial Hyatt, has been shorting NVIDIA and Palante, the two AIs. Third, if AI is really a bubble, how should we ordinary investors protect it?
Today I will analyze the latest interview content with you in depth , see why he clicks pessimism, and what his analysis enlightens us, welcome to RichLeTV, we hope to take you into the world of thinking of top investment experts, so that you can walk more deeply on the road of investment and asset management Christian Bale plays the genius investor, so in 2005, when the world thought the US housing market was safe, he had seen through the sub- case crisis and invented a financial instrument to short bonds .
Why do I say he invented it? Because there was no tool in the market for you to short mortgage bonds, he asked the investment bank in Hua Yi Street to create a product for him called a credit contract adjustment CDS , simply put, like he bought insurance, other people's houses will burst. Years financial sea investors earned full allocation, this is one of the most legendary transactions in Chinese history, well, the transaction began to be made public by the Securities and Exchange Commission, we found out that he was short and these two AI dragons, this news came out, the whole Chinese street was shocked, C kept reporting Twitter hot speculated for 48 hours, but here are very important details, many people said he did not solve 1 billion dollars In fact, he only bought য় some well-intentioned out-of-price put companies, the actual investment amount is only about $10 million.
The number of stocks behind the option contract at the time of the stock price said he was short 1 billion, in fact, the span was 100 times larger, he bought a two-year expiration exercise at 50 dollars of put options, and the stock price of paraly was 200 dollars toys said he was very parenty will fall below 50 dollars in two years, that is, fall more than 75.
So why does Berry see it that way? He made a few key points , first, parent is not actually a real AI company. A year ago, before chatGPT came out , Parent was not an AI company at all, what they were doing was actually data analysis for governments and enterprises, and to hire many civilian customers to install and use When the AI boom came, they packaged some products as AI and changed their names.
Second, valuation Sunpu said. With five billionaire shareholders, large companies even get $4 billion, which means the ratio of billionaires to revenue is 1: 1, and he said he has never seen such an exaggerated company. Third , equity new parent to give a lot of stock options as employees deducted stock to offset the news, if you count these real costs back to this company is actually not making money or making very little.
But that after analysis usually will equity new as non-cash expenditure plus Lego will make the number look a lot Fourth IBM is actually doing the same thing with a similar AI enterprise solutions business size is even larger penier past true speed is almost the same , but a lot of valuation Why? Because no one speculates on AI stocks .
Simply put this thinks Parenty is. It just happened to coincide with the AI boom, and not really any revolutionary products. So yeah. When it comes to NVIDIA says they and Palent are the two luckiest companies in the world, why say, NVIDIA itself is doing computer graphics chip G's early years of cryptocurrency hot just right, GU can be used for NVIDIA to make a fortune, now AI boom training AI typeless and need a large number of GPU, NVIDIA and hit, but emphasize NVIDIA is not specifically designed for AI products.
The most AI investment that BR believes is a bubble, and like Fang Mo of the year. He analyzed that its actually not a bubble, but a data transmission foam, a large number of companies lightweight web games crazy investment in machinery, when isc is the leading company selling games , after the stock market top in March, co that year revenue increased by 55%, the next year still 17 growth, why ?
eh? Because investment will last for a while before it's like building a building, even if you know it will explode must be built to explode Now AI is the same, Amazon, Google, Micros, Oracle these big companies crazy investment in AI devices, buy GPU, data centers, every time a company announced increased AI capital open, stock price rose, Orac announced AI investment stock price up 40%, founder Larry has become the world's first investment , he said that if you announce a dollar AI capital opening, your market capitalization will rise, which is irrational.
Buying a two-year put option means that he expects the AI foam to burst within two years, why? He used an indicator of investment to allow net investmenttoGDP, which is to open up all capital and divide by GDP to see where the investment frenzy goes . He found that every investment frenzy in history, the stock market will peak before the investment peak, the annual bubble is so Ye Revolution is so, now AI investment, has reached a historical high, close to the level of the komo so ber believes that the top will be seen within two years, he suggested that if you have some stocks that have risen a lot, and you think the value is already very expensive, should consider buying the medical stock market , because these stocks are very unpopular right now and have cheap valuations.
Also said a very important thing, now the US stock market has been different years, when retail hedge funds mutual funds are active stocks, some people speculate square network stocks, some people buy traditional stocks, so when the news of other stocks can still rise, but now different countries 50% of funds are passive investment, that is, buy numbers funds , really active management, good analysis of the company's funds are only less than a hundred Will fall together, because we are buying vegetarian sweeps, so that if the US stock falls, this time will be like an avalanche the whole market falls together, he himself for this reason closed the fund, no longer help others money, only his own money.
He said I didn’t want to go through it again with investors, and he thought the next few years might be long-term red, like 200 to 2003. Mr this also said a few other things. Google search is in crisis, he said since the introduction of AI chatbots like checkGPT, he no longer uses Google search. The reason why Google search is so profitable is because most searches don't cost money anymore .
85 of searches are asking, no one will buy ads, but AI is different Every time AI answers, it may take tens of dollars to reach a complex question, if Google to replace hand search with AI costs will fight, profits will fall He said a straight article, in the modern times of bending gold Xiangmo also said that it made many criminal activities more covert, he himself held gold from 2005 until the US debt crisis , he thinks the US government debt problem is very serious, annual interest expenditure to one trillion dollars, but he will not press the US will burst pot, because do not confront the US.
The US has reserve currency status and has the ability to drag it out for a long time. Well, to summarize the point of today, doing is that AI is a bubble, similar to Fang Mo, which predicts that it will explode within two years, because the investment mania has reached all-time highs. Dividend companies are not really making money, equity new investors to be careful, because now passive investors are the main market it fell all together, if you have a lot of stocks, should consider the market to buy medical stocks Well, that's all for today , if you like the content, remember to give a like to subscribe to our channel, hit the little bell, so you will not miss our latest video.
What if you have any views ? Welcome to comment below, I will try my best, reply to everyone, thank you for watching, we will see you next time bye
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