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Let's start with the stocks that entered today's session at record closing levels. Jim, we're currently seeing the US market outperform the non-US market for the year, although it doesn't sound like you were thrilled with yesterday's close. No, I mean we saw it; Everything seemed to go up at the opening, mostly because of Matt Murphy and the new targets he announced —they were much more optimistic, data center-related, than anyone expected, so Nvidia opened up three, which is completely unsustainable.
You can't let giants like these, companies with a market capitalization of $6 trillion, open with a three-fold increase as if it were some kind of meme stock. So we spent the rest of the day falling, and I think that dragged us down. The only ones who really held on were some of the big hyperscalers, but even they are declining today.
Uh, I really think we're trapped in oil again, and we're trapped in this huge 10- year debt that came out of nowhere. Now it's very similar to the 90s, when we know that the ground needs to be softened with artillery before soldiers land on the shore. It's like old times, so the price you might see now on this issue could actually lead to lower interest rates.
If It seems like everyone is betting on a drop in 20-30- year bonds, right? 10-year-olds today, 10- year-olds today, 30- year-olds tomorrow, maybe , or something like that. You know, all of this will be , as I call it, untimely. Yes. Now it's like, oh my god, because you're going to have to mark them on your calendar like in the 90s and acknowledge that they're in charge .
Oh, sorry, yes. Uh, 30, yeah, okay. So you see a lot of stocks falling. A lot of this is related to 10- year bonds. A lot of this is related to oil, and some of it is just the aftermath of yesterday , well, let's put it this way. Nvidia has perhaps the largest order they've ever had. Well, yeah, we'll get to that in a minute, but I mean, this morning...
wait. That's exactly what I'm saying. But in the calls I made this morning, everyone started with bets. It was bets, bets, bets. That's all. I tried to interest them in something else, and they just: you know, it's betting, it's a difficult market, even though we're at the highs. Yes, it is, because everyone is talking about 30- year bonds yielding six and a quarter, which provides a nice yield curve, and suddenly maybe the banks will start making money.
But six and a quarter is a play for 30-year bonds. For 30-year-olds? For 30-year-olds. BNP Paribas yesterday recommended short positions on 30-year bonds with a target of 5/8. But I don't think you'll like this idea. You wouldn't do that, would you ? Look, we obviously have too much on offer. Proposals...There are two types of proposals.
There is an offer that is easy to place, like the Apollo offer. Of course? People will pay anything, it just doesn't correlate with the economy. Data centers do not correlate with the economy. Do you want to raise money for a data center? Hold on, BBB rating, give it to Musk. Yes, actually you are right.
Investment-grade offering related to mergers and acquisitions. Actually, hyperscaling is part of it, but 72 billion in September is significantly more than it was in August. Right, but if you're, say, a consumer goods company. I wouldn't give you a cent. There is diversity, and capital flows in the stock market reflect that as well.
Regarding this bond offering , they raised 25 billion immediately after going public . By the way, they didn't perform very well on the secondary market. I'm talking about SpaceX now. Obviously, our viewers know that the stock has performed exceptionally well since its IPO. After an initial dip, there have been a few very strong weeks recently, despite the lockdown and everything.
And now we have a $40 billion deal that we're told is led by Apollo, possibly worth up to $10 billion. They have all this insurance money from MetLife that they can put to use. I don't know what price they will put on all this. As far as I understand, the price has not yet been set . I'm trying to get through this morning to find out more.
it. Really? Do you think so? Yes, people need it. They want it. successfully placed. This is a low investment level , as Karl pointed out, right? BBB rating. Rick, look, if you see everything revolving around Nvidia chips, to your point that Musk expressed during the last conference, namely: we are completely dependent on Nvidia.
These are the chips with the best performance. Vera Rubin is who we are. And I guess it definitely strengthens his relationship with Jensen Huang and Nvidia when he says things like that. I also mention this as a metaphor. Well, if there is data, then this is a very important indicator. Because that's what people don't want.
We don't want entertainment bonds. We want data center bonds. They just sold 52, 53 billion of these bonds. it was a great bond. Well, okay. to get nuts. They They handled it. They did it. quickly handled, you know, the goal They did it. They did not miss. And you know, E and E and Christy are good, huh?
Well, we'll see how everyone is doing tomorrow. I'm looking forward to the interview, of course, with David Ellison and E and E. But It's so important to see on the site, they'll be ringing the bell tomorrow. literally until 9:15. Will you give me all this? Will you give me the first 15 minutes of our show tomorrow?
I am loaded. You are always busy. I like being loaded. Yes, I know what I like. Anyway, listen, this is important , so everyone wants SpaceX, and no one says what? People don't want Paramount? We'll get to that in a minute, by the way. Yes, because yesterday a very important piece of material came out from Goldman Sachs, where they actually raised the target price for SpaceX.
They use incredibly likely numbers for SpaceX. They raised the price target from 10 to 220, to 230. David, they ratified 220. That 's right. Well, that's incredible. Well, Jonas bets 300, he's writing again today. How many days in a row is Jonas going to write about SpaceX? We don't know, but Dickens wrote every day, and I thought, you know, I have He knows that I think of him as Dickens.
I told him about it. He did What do you have? Are you listening to something? Yeah, I'm just trying to You know, I'm all ears. My ear is blocked. I'm trying to cover your ear. I'm trying to understand the world, and you're sticking your ear in there. We get news from the street. Thank you. Gary Owens and laughter.
Wait, what? Elon, what? Sorry, I didn't hear. He listens to Albert Brooks. Remember this? That was good. He was sweating a lot. But okay. Um, 45 44 and a half billion in revenue—that's actually just a little bit more than they're issuing bonds here. We talked about this endlessly. It just keeps going .
40 billion here. They have already launched 25 at SpaceX. Of course, I will always look back to Google's IPO as a landmark moment for Alphabet back in the spring. That 80 billion. I know. It was incredible. The bottom line is that none of these companies are generating anywhere near as much free cash flow as they used to.
SpaceX is obviously not in this group, but it is certainly considered a hyperscaler. Given how many chips they buy and what they can offer in terms of computing power. I approach this with the mindset that I'm changing my attitude towards SpaceX . Now it will be a powerful hyperscaler that does many other things.
Well, I mean, the optimists tell me they'll hit 100 billion EBITDA by year '28. Yes, I agree with that. I don't know when they'll launch the first orbital data center. Well, I think it's good that you're doing a little experimenting. And you'll have to raise a lot of money to do it. But I think a lot of the professionals right now on the big bond exchange are saying, "Oh my God, I finally have control ." I am in control of the situation, and that's because of what you said.
Because balance sheets are not...This is not 2023 . One of my biggest fears in 2007 came true because they were creating balance sheets. Now it's like, " Hey, listen, we want to give them money because they're in a unique growth zone." Rightly. But we watched this material yesterday. JP Morgan: Problem loans at highest level since pandemic.
Growth of 90%, leveraged non-performing loans increased by 90% in 12 months. But they are still heavily dependent on these software companies, which we believed had poor situational awareness. And every time I think about that, I think about SailPoint, the Toma Bravo company that had the most problems.
But here's SailPoint — the stock is going up. Tonight I have Viva, which was about to be destroyed by corporate software, and the stock is up 60% last quarter. I still think this stuff is a throwback to a time when we thought enterprise software was going to be destroyed. Oh, well, Intuit is the worst company on the S&P this year.
I have to say that Intuit is a good company, but it accidentally got into the news. Nvidia hit a new all-time high today, then pulled back a bit . The reason is hidden in two other stories that are currently causing a stir. A laptop and a $40 billion loan. Let's figure it out. First, the laptop. At an event in San Francisco, Microsoft and Nvidia unveiled the Surface Laptop Ultra—the first Surface built on Nvidia's new RTX Spark chip.
Pre-orders are now open, the price starts at $2,599, and deliveries are scheduled for October 16. That's why it's important. RTX Spark combines the Nvidia Grace processor and Blackwell GPU on a single platform with a shared memory pool of up to 128GB. AI models run in memory, so a laptop with this amount of shared memory can run large models directly on the device without a connection to the cloud.
Nvidia claims it can achieve up to one petaflop of AI performance, and it's priced like a workstation. The base model only has 24GB of storage, so if you want the capabilities of the larger models, you'll have to pay significantly more than the listed price. The top configuration costs $5,899. Microsoft doesn't offer this to those looking for just a fast laptop for everyday use.
It is aimed at developers, content creators, and those who create AI-based solutions. Remember Apple's zero-cost token offer for local AI two weeks ago? This is the answer from Windows. Microsoft has also made its execution containers, which isolate and manage AI agents on Windows, publicly available.
And Copilot can now choose between on-device and cloud models. Secondly, a brief note on SpaceX. The Financial Times reported that SpaceX is in talks for about $40 billion in Apollo-led financing to purchase Nvidia chips: about $10 billion in . None of the companies confirmed this. Musk has said that Colossus 2 December, and that SpaceX is building its infrastructure exclusively on Nvidia hardware.
Here is a cycle to pay attention to. Nvidia already owns a stake in SpaceX, which was last valued at around $21 billion. So, the money SpaceX borrows turns into chip orders for a company that is already an investor. For comparison: the loan amount is less than 2% of SpaceX's market value, and its BBB credit rating is investment grade, albeit closer to the lower end of the range, which brings us to the stock.
Nvidia shares hit a record high of over $243 today, then retreated to $ 236. Two forces are working against each other. Analysts continue to raise targets for semiconductors, supporting growth, but rising data center financing costs are becoming an increasing risk. Let's do the math for SpaceX. Every percentage point of interest on $40 billion is $400 million per year .
Earlier this week, Deutsche Bank noted that Treasury yields are at their highest level since 2007. When AI development is financed with borrowed money, the value of that money begins to matter as much as the number of chips everyone wants to buy. None of this ruins the story. The pullback from the record is not a crash, and the demand signals have not changed, but for the first time in a long time, the value of money, not the supply of chips , is what is worth paying attention to.
So, here's what we have today. Nvidia is adding serious AI to your desktop via Microsoft. Its biggest customers are borrowing tens of billions to buy new chips, and the stock is stuck between high demand and expensive money. What are you watching? Let us know in the comments.
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