저자: RayDalio단독발언추정—제목기준영상출연자RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 특정 자산의 단기 가격 타이밍은 불가능하므로 분산된 all-weather 포트폴리오로 대응해야 하며, 현금도 인플레이션으로 실질 가치가 줄어 안전하지 않다는 주장이다. 핵심 주장 1 - 시장 타이밍 무용론: 시장의 진입·이탈 시점을 맞히려는 시도는 다음 움직임을 미리 맞혀야 하는 어리석은 일이며, 자산 간 상관관계와 변화가 계속 재조정된다. 핵심 주장 2 - 현금은 안전하지 않음: 현금은 변동성이 낮아 안전해 보이지만 인플레이션에 의해 매년 몇 %씩 세금처럼 가치가 잠식되며, 이자율도 그만큼 보상하지 못한다. 핵심 주장 3 - 균형 포트폴리오: 주식이 하락하고 채권이 상승하는 등 자산 간 반대 움직임을 활용해 수익률을 낮추지 않고 위험을 줄이는 것이 핵심이다. 거시 주장 - 기축통화와 부채: 미국은 대규모 재정적자를 화폐화(monetize)하고 있으며, 채권 수요 부족으로 중앙은행의 부채 화폐화가 더 필요해질 것이라고 보고 부의 저장수단이 변하고 있다고 진단한다. 실질금리 하락과 유동성 증가로 채권 가치는 다른 자산 대비 하락하고 있다고 설명한다. 금(gold)도 이 흐름에 포함된다. 중국 관련 - 중국은 1984년 이후 1인당 소득이 26배 증가한 성공 사례로 편견 없이 봐야 하며, 공동부유(Common Prosperity) 흐름이 있지만 재산 몰수가 아닌 생산성 기반이라고 본다. 중국 IPO의 약 40% 이상이 중국 시장이며 자본 유입처로 부상 중이라고 언급한다. 역사적 프레임 - 1971년 금태환 중단과 1933년 루스벨트 조치를 비교하며 평가절하 후 자산이 재평가된 사례를 든다. 제국 교체기에는 재정 긴축 대립으로 내전이 많았다고 분석한다. 세 가지 대전환 - (1) 제로금리와 부채의 화폐화에 따른 통화·신용 공급 문제, (2) 포퓰리즘과 부의 격차(1930~45년 이후 최대), (3) 기존 강대국(미국)에 도전하는 신흥 강대국의 부상. 리스크 - 재정적자 확대, 채권 수요 부족, 부의 격차로 인한 정치적 갈등이 정책과 세제를 바꿀 수 있다. 특정 자산 방향에 대한 구체적 가격 예측은 제시하지 않았다. 출연자 전망 - 장기적으로 미국 부채 구조와 기축통화 지위 약화 가능성을 경고하나, 단기 방향은 언급하지 않음. 영상은 은퇴 단계에서 유용한 아이디어를 공유하는 목적이라고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
I think that just the way you said it is going to be a Fool's journey to say here's the stock market and I'm going to time the movement into the market I'm going to time the movement out of the market okay you know what that means you're going to out guess what the next variant move is and what the next other thing is a lot of things depend on a lot of other things and everything readjusts what has to happen I think is investors most importantly have to realize two things first that cash is not a safe investment is not a safe place because it will be taxed by inflation there will not be an interest rate that will anywhere near compensate and it seems good because it's not volatile that you're paying a tax of a few percent a year on that so hey stay out of that and then B know how to balance a portfolio because the way portfolios work it's almost like for some part something happens um another thing happens in other words what you can see in the markets today is that um let's say when equities go down because growth expectations falter and there's a greater likelihood of easing then you see the bond market go up and when you see other markets gold you're seeing watch the market action on every day and you could see those relationships but be wealth is not destroyed as much as it is transferred and if you know how to balance those Investments we do it at a what we call an all-weather portfolio but if you know how to balance those Investments that's the most important thing be in a safe well-balanced portfolio you can reduce your risk without reducing your return and you can you will not Market time this because even if you were a great Market timer your the things that are happening can change the world so it changes what should be priced into the market let's go back to sort of basics for every individual for every company for every government over a period of time you have to earn more than you spend and you have a balance sheet is an income statement and a balance sheet when one becomes a reserve currency others want to save in that and that gives one the exorbitant privilege of being able to borrow in that and to create debt and money because that's the thing and it also gives us powers like a lot of our sanctions come from the dollars being a reserve currency and so on however through history it has always happened that currencies are devalued or destroyed and in that cycle when it becomes unattractive to own bonds or debt instruments in that currency there's a supply demand problem because a bond is a promise to receive currency so what you are is when you own a bond you're long a lot of currency because that's what they promised to give you and they have the printing press and then there were shifts that happened who is accounting for World Trade right now China counts a larger share of World Trade than the United States for example so what we are doing is we are in a Fiat monetary system in which we are running very large deficits that we are monetizing and that those deficits produce bonds that have to be sold when when I look at the supply and demand for those bonds I know who the buyers are you know there are a limited number of really big buyers and so when look at their portfolios and so on calculate what that is there's not going to be enough demand for those bonds and there's going to be a need for more monetization of that debt and so the answer is yes we're producing a change in the storehold of wealth and you've seen it in the markets because just think of it in a mechanistic sense when there was that stimulation and the buying what the Federal Reserve debt in terms of buying that asset there was not only the decline in real interest rates we had you know about 150 base points declining real rates and nominal rates down there so the discount rate was lowered you also had a lot of liquidity which came in and the world now has an enormous amount of liquidity bidding for financial assets and so if you increase the supply bonds and you increased the amount of money bonds are going to be worth less relative to other things and you're seeing a shift in the store all the will and like the 1933 period that when Roosevelt did the same moves in 1933 you then saw assets rise because their alternative storeholds as well that's what we saw in terms of the liquidity move that we've happened in Market also included in gold and so on and so that's how it looks to me in terms of the comparison we're now in a new era we're in a new era we are pressing the limits of that that money at the end of the day whoever's accepting that Reserve currency has got to believe it hey Ray one of the things you do write about is China some would argue that you have a a generous or or more sympathetic view to China than perhaps uh some of the most Hawks uh if you will about China but you think that there's sort of inevitability to the transfer of wealth of sorts well okay two things China transfer of wealth I just know China very well and I come as a perspective uh with a perspective as an investor I've been going there since 1984.
I have I know leaders and I know how they're thinking and I know the moves that they're making in a detailed way and I'm just trying to share what that perspective is because I think a lot of people make stereotype typical uh moves and I think you have to really understand first thing you have to understand because it has been a remark remarkably successful place since I started going there in 1984 per capita is increased by 26 times and so on so to not understand it or to approach it with a great bias is a great disservice okay in terms of the element of let's say a transfer of wealth or let's call it common Prosperity yes there's a world in this world right now there is a much more there's a move to Common Prosperity not I think that um that that move what does that mean at a technical level that's not take your money away but here I I would say what are called progressives here are much more left than what we would call progressives or or whatever the Chinese policies are doing um but yes worldwide there has to be common Prosperity or let's call it broad prosperity and the question is whether this that's going to come back by productivity or not it doesn't mean that you're going going to have like a communism that's going to take all of that there's going to be a lot of productivity in China and so again diversifying the portfolio right um you know you look at the United States elsewhere yes and there are things that are going on and also uh let's just think about Capital flows China is becoming an effective place to invest money uh something like 40 over 40 percent of the IPOs are going to be Chinese stocks on Chinese markets and so on and capital flows work that way and history has shown us that when there's an Empire an emerging Empire they build a financial markets they build the financial system so Amsterdam was the world's Financial Center during the Empire when there was the Dutch guilder London was the financial center in the British Empire U.S we had New York and so we're seeing that merge all of that changes the supply and the demand that as threatening to the reserve currency status just imagine it's a state okay the state of Connecticut the state of Illinois and so on and you can't print the money that means you either have to raise taxes or cut spending and history is shown in these Empires that that causes great conflicts because taxes raising taxes and or cutting spending has been all through these Empires and I've studied I don't know how many over a long period of time the number one reason that you have Civil Wars so yes it's easy to say we have to earn more than we spend and so on but in this environment in this highly fragmented environment how are we going to get there what I decided to do I was doing the research for myself in Bridgewater because I what I learned through my life is that all the a surprise is the big surprises and mistakes I made whenever they occurred were things that didn't happen in my lifetime before but happened before my lifetime like in 1971 I was clerking on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange August 15th I remember it very well um Nixon announces that money as we know it is not any longer going to exist and people wouldn't accept money dollars in Europe and I went on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange where I'm clerking the next day and I thought it was a crisis and I thought the stock market was going to go down a lot and the stock market went up a lot and then I said okay well why and I studied history and I studied evaluations and I studied that the exact same thing happened on March 5th 1933 with Roosevelt's move and I understood when you devalue you reflate and it has this positive effect on that so what's happened recently is that I've observed three big things that are going on that haven't happened in our lifetimes and that they're big big big things and so those three big things led me to want to study them in history and they are what's going on with money and credit as you get zero interest rate and everybody needs a lot more spending power the production of a lot of debt that is monetized and directed by the central government to the places they want it to go because the capital markets won't get them there in that way that phenomenon came loud and clear through covid but it existed before and so that leads me to the supply and demand of money and credit and I realize who gets it and who doesn't get it drives not only the markets it drives our lives so that's one the second factor is the emergence of populism and the wealth Gap so when Donald Trump got elected and there's a lot of populism around the world that didn't used to happen in developed countries in the same way and I decided to study the distribution the deciles so I took the bottom 60 percent of the population and I looked at those conditions and so on and I realized that the wealth Gap today is the largest since it was in the 30s the monetary policy I'm talking about last time that happened zero interest rates a lot of monetization 1930 to 45 period the wealth Gap and the conflicts that we're doing last time that happened 1930 and 45 period so that factor where at each other's throats we have conflicts primarily over money and wealth and that defines tax policy so when we look into the new Administration whatever that may be we're going to think about those policies I needed to put that in perspective and then the third is the rise of a great power to challenging and existing great power the world order that we're in began in 1945.
the United States won the war basically it accounted for 50 percent of the world's economy had 80 percent of the gold gold was money and so we built a dollar based and U.S based order and now we're in a position where the Soviet Union was never economically comparable rival they had nuclear power but not the same and so we're now seeing every day that rivalry and as you know like me me like you will go there and we know the people it makes decisions and so on and so forth and so by being able to see that we perceive changes pertaining to that so those are the three factors of our lifetime which then said I need to go back and find out what determines a reserve currency and so I went back 500 years because I needed the Cycles it used to be the Dutch Empire the British Empire and the American Empire and that's what I did so the reason I wanted to share it was I'm now at a stage of my life I'm 71 and my notion at this moment and I'll do this for maybe a year or two more is to pass along the things that I found valuable to other people for them to take or leave as they like
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