저자: BillAckman · 외국인
요약 보기
패시브 투자 확대로 주주가 경영을 감시하지 않아 경영 부실 기업이 생긴다는 문제의식에서 출발해, 기업 지배구조 개입을 통한 가치 창출 사례를 소개하는 영상. 결론: 장기 독점적 사업모델을 가진 기업이 경영 부진에 빠졌을 때 주주행동주의로 최고의 CEO를 영입하면 큰 수익을 낼 수 있다. 투자 철학: 액티브 주주가 줄어든 현재, 해자(moat)가 있고 단순하며 예측 가능하고 현금을 창출하는 사업을 찾는다. 철도처럼 신규 진입이 사실상 불가능하고 50년 뒤에도 존재할 사업이 대상이다. 사례 - 캐나다 퍼시픽(CP) 철도: 북미에서 수익성이 가장 낮고 PER가 가장 낮은 최하위 철도회사였으며 주주 불만이 컸으나 패시브 대주주들은 대응하지 않았다. 퍼싱스퀘어가 약 12%를 매입 후 2%를 추가해 약 14% 지분을 확보했다. 경영진 교체 과정: 은퇴한 전설적 철도 경영자 Hunter Harrison을 컨설턴트로 영입해 회사를 분석하게 했고, 이후 CEO 직을 제안했다. 이사회(전 왕립은행장 등 명망 높은 인사들)가 반대하자 위임장 대결(proxy contest)을 벌여 13석 중 7석에 후보를 내세웠고, 주주들이 약 90% 찬성으로 지지했다. 성과: CEO 교체 16개월 만에 북미에서 가장 수익성 높은 철도회사로 변모했다고 주장. 주가는 주당 46달러에서 151달러로 상승, 시가총액은 약 80억 달러에서 250억 달러 수준으로 증가했다고 설명. 리스크/단서: 영상 말미에 "항상 이렇게 되는 것은 아니다"라고 명시해 성공 사례의 일반화에 대한 한계를 인정. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산의 단기 가격 방향에 대한 예측 발언은 없음. 장기적으로 철도 등 독점적 인프라 사업이 지속된다는 견해만 제시.
다듬은 글
um so the vast majority of capital invested in the markets today is passive so if you think of index funds or etfs or even the big uh kind of long-only institutions the vast majority of that capital is by charter passive passive means you you do your research in some cases you don't do the research you sort of just blindly follow an index and you're judged based on how closely you follow the index if you think about investing 100 years ago though investing you had andrew carnegie owning 20 of us steel where you had jp morgan as a large owner of various companies over time and in the old days of investing an owner would act like an owner so if they were unhappy with the performance of the business they would replace the ceo they were unhappy with the board's judgment they would make changes to the board and as capitalism sort of democratized the investment process and as any kid in business school can open a brokerage account and as uh it's you know the uh the owners of many of these great businesses over time you know gave the shares away to a university or their heirs and the ownership was just you know spread out you know the sam waltons of the world uh kind of passed away and the boards became to be managed by uh professional owners and so uh what we do is we look for situations where business has lost its way uh where an otherwise great company with in a in a business that we would define as one that has significant barriers to entry that warren buffett would describe as having a moat around it a business that is simple predictable generates cash and we can be confident we'll be here 50 years from now a good example is we own a stake in canadian pacific which is a a railroad in canada um and if you think about the railroad business you know it's not it's a business where they're not going to build a new one across the street you can have absence some fairly dramatic changes in technology you can be pretty comfortable that you know goods will be shipped on rail for a very long time to come so it's a business we can predict we can think about it from a very long-term perspective we can buy it at a price that's interesting and in the case of cp this was the worst run railroad in north america it had the lowest profit margins it was trading at the lowest valuation relative to earnings and had a very unhappy shareholder base but there was nothing they could do about it because they were inherently again the biggest investors tend to be very passive and we saw an opportunity and the opportunity was if you could replace the worst ceo in in the railroad industry with the best ceo in the railroad industry a lot of money could be made and we bought uh first 12 percent of the stock and then another two percent about 14 of the stock we recruited a guy named hunter harrison who is widely considered the best railroad executive of all time you know certainly in north america he had retired at 65 he was 66 and a half he had signed a two-year non-compete with his employer and i think the biggest mistake they made was a two-year non-compete because he was running the the other canadian railroad canadian national and we hired him as a consultant he helped us study the railroad and he had plenty of fire in his belly and we said look would you be interested in the day job and he said let me check with my wife she said you know what it's time to get you out of the house again and uh we recruited them and then we had to simply put them in place now the problem was canadian pacific has one of the most sort of esteemed and illustrious boards in canada at least at the time and it was the former head of the royal bank of canada the former ceo of suncor energy the former head of the steel business you know it's very very important board and um they didn't like the idea that this idea was coming from outside the company so they said no um so we went to the shareholders and we ran an election a proxy contest we put up seven directors for uh seven seats on a 13 seat board and the shareholders voted with us uh 90 of the time and voted against the other guys uh and they got between three and 11 of the vote we put our directors on uh we did a review of the best ceos in the world turns out the guy we identified was the best guy we put him in a ceo that was 16 months ago and it's almost the most profitable railroad in north america after 16 months that's how quick this guy goes to work stocks gone from 46 uh to 151 dollars a share it's you know a little under 8 billion market cap to a 25 billion market cap that's kind of the perfect example now it doesn't always work that way
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