저자: Sue · 외국인
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결론: 러셀2000 가격 강세 회복에 따라 브로드컴(AVGO)을 워치리스트에 추가하며 긍정적으로 봄. 시장 전반: 러셀2000(IWM) 월봉 2월 캔들은 긴 윗꼬리로 불안정하나, 1월 말 급락분을 상당 부분 회복했고 최근 일봉에서 블랙 대각선 추세선과 파란 8일 EMA 위에서 마감하며 강세 확인. 브로드컴(AVGO) 근거: 반도체 기업으로 밸류·성장 점수가 높고, 예상 이익성장률 31%, 현재 PER 13.55, 배당수익률 2.77%. 5년 월봉 상승추세 및 2016년·2017년 관심 종목이었음을 언급. 기술적 조건: 2년 차트에서 지지선 부근의 강세 해머 형태가 나타났고, 이 지지 구간 위로 올라서면 긍정적이라고 봄. 일봉에서 가격이 파란선 위에 있으며, 주가가 현재 횡보 패턴을 벗어나 상방으로 움직이는지 확인이 필요하다고 함. 해당 조건 충족 시 추가 상승 가능성 언급. 계절성·애널리스트: 해당 시기 계절적 강세 패턴이 우호적이며, 애널리스트 커버리지가 많고 긍정적. 퀄컴 인수 제안 관련 경쟁 이슈가 있으나 해소 여부는 불확실하다고 언급. 섹터: 기술(XLK) ETF 5년 월봉 강한 상승추세. 다만 2월 캔들 긴 윗꼬리로 상단 저항 부근이므로 하락 이탈 여부를 주시해야 한다고 함. 리스크: 시장 전반 변동성(파월 의회 증언 등), 2월 캔들 윗꼬리에 따른 단기 조정 가능성. 실적 발표 예정일은 3월 15일로 언급.
다듬은 글
hello and welcome to chart of the day cafe for Tuesday February 27th 2018 trading stocks is a high level of risk and viewers should complete their own due diligence on any stock or underlying that they intend to own 100% of the content of this video and communique is intended for journalistic and educational purposes only this video and all indicators strategies and articles herein should not be construed as investment advice not making any recommendations always for your further homework good morning sue here with my regular Tuesday Thursday morning video hope you had a great weekend I'm back from the cottage so hopefully the sound quality is a little bit better than it was in the last couple of weeks there's lots going on in the market so with that let's get into today's video if you're a regular viewer then you know I always start my videos off with a look at the rustle index I use the rustle as my simple proxy for the markets overall my thinking being I want to align my outlook on the day on the week with the direction that the market is going in so as long as the Russell is moving higher and in a knop trend I'm adding new names to my watchlist when it's not I'm just sitting tight and regrouping so I'd like to step back and take a look at things from a big-picture point of view so we're looking at the IWM which is the ETF that represents the Russell 2000 and we're looking at the five-year monthly chart so the big picture of you I've taken away all my drawings we've been talking about the look of the candles for the month here's the candle for the month of February so far pretty wonky candle if you ask me with this long wick we only have a couple of trading days left in the month so we'll see how this ends up at the end but we want to be aware of that that intense selling came in at the beginning of the month we want to make sure that that does not start to come back in like it did at the end of January creating this wick here but so far so good we were traced a lot of the lost price retreat that we experienced at the end of January beginning of February so this is the big month a look so now I'm gonna put my drawings back in because we like to have that reference point if you're a regular viewer then you know I always talked about these lines this is long-term support resistance the blue or ignoring it for now the orange line down here is kind of medium support resistance it corralled Christ in along with this black diagonal line since the beginning of 2017 the most important line to me is this one here I wanna make sure that place stays up and over that line the pink is short-term support again we're still looking at the monthly candles but as you can see the orange line corralled price through all of 2017 and then in the latter part of the year it pushed up and over our black diagonal line where it stayed until this month of February where it bled below so you want to be aware that we're gonna move it away from the five you mostly to the to your weekly here's that same orange line same black diagonal line pink line we're gonna ignore this area down here for now and really concentrate on what we see here so we have that points to climb at the end of January the big massive selling with that and volume but the last couple of weeks that stopped at our pink line of support and it has recovered the black diagonal line that's nice to see we just want to make sure that in the next couple of days were able to stay up and over this area so I'm gonna zoom in go from the two weekly to the six-month daily and I was saying last week okay we're up and over the Black Diamond along but I wanted to see more conviction for me because these members were all a bit wonky but yesterday and Friday we've had open and close up on over the black diagonal line and more conviction in the Kendall not a ton of volume so we want to make sure that we can continue twice moving this way on the vessel in what place drink stay with the market so we'll be keeping a close eye but with price on the Russell up and over the blue up and over a black bag the line on the price strength for the most part in the last couple of days we're going to talk better you need for watch this and so with price on the Russell up and over our black diagonal line and up and over the blue eight-day EMA and showing that price strength I am adding a new name to my watch list this morning it's actually not a new one I featured it before but I'm going to reefy Chur it and go through all the metrics that I normally use when I add something to my watch list and the company is Broadcom limited ticker symbol AVG o trades on the NASDAQ exchange before I get into the chart let me tell you a little bit more about the company you know me I'm all about the scores underneath my charts and Broadcom is got those brilliant scores I look for the high value growth scores that I love Broadcom is in the semiconductor space the company offers a range of products in end markets including wired infrastructure wireless communications enterprise storage industrial and other purposes I'm sure a lot of you are pretty familiar with the company it's got a really high value score which is the first thing I look for and a forecasted earnings growth rate going forward of 31 percent a current p/e of 13 point five five and it pays a dividend it's got a dividend yield currently of two point seven seven percent so those are the metrics I like to see now let's get into the chart we're looking at the five-year monthly chart as you can see beautiful uptrend I featured AVG o in chart of the day cafe video back here in April of 2016 when it was leaving this area of consolidation and looking querque sure enough it had this beautiful rise since then it consolidated weari featured it here in October of 2017 and again in November and I'm going to feature it again here in this area because it looks pretty good to me as long as the markets keep going higher that's my prerequisite so five-year monthly chart you can see that it consolidated here for a time had this lift but look at the candle shaping up so far for the month of February that's a pretty bullish looking candle to me it says in a continued strong market environment a VGO wants to find that value right it's got a very high values for meaning that's on sale so should post will continue ad Joe is saying here it wants to find its true value and possibly move higher but I like to see that pending on the monthly so let's move it away from the monthly to the to a weekly again there's that consolidation the green circles are where I put ad drove forward in the past they fell below like everything else it fell below this area of support with all of that wonky price action earlier in the month of February but it's often all over that area here on trading in an area here that I can click spoon of interesting so I'm going to zoom it in from the tree weekly give a six-month daily and price is often over the blue 8 de la I look for on to the innate profs I'm just gonna put pop on there you can see that the pink is over the blue it's thought that 3 in across what I will be looking for though is I want to see price move that way so I want to see it shows strength off this orange line of support on and move out beyond this black diagonally I'm going that way one of them work upward price movement personally that's what I'm gonna look for it and if I switch about to my claim study on so with that I'm gonna put over again so when they type and say keep an eye on a BGA Broadcom it's got those beautiful value and growth metrics I look for great company I'm gonna be along with our new watchlist pic I also like to take a look at this sector that it's in and for that we're looking at Excel K which is the ETF for the technology sector five-year monthly chart looking strong beautiful uptrend I want to note though the candle for the month of February has this big long wick so it did it did go lower in the month and we're coming into the top of the prior candle range at the top of the range so I want to be aware of that and make sure that Christ does not start to slip here but for the most part looking very strong in the technology side also to take a look at seasonality and for that I go over to equity Qualcomm really excellent site and you can see we're looking at the seasonal chart for Broadcom and it has that beautiful seasonal strength at this time of year that I like to see I'll also spin over to fin boost which is again one of my favorite sites and I like to see us go down to the bottom for my my new pick and I like to see if analysts are supporting it and as you can see look at this sweet beautiful endless coverage for EVGA Broadcom looking good you want to be aware they're in the process of making a bid for Qualcomm there's a bit of a battle going on between Qualcomm and Broadcom and XP but essentially Broadcom is trying to buy Qualcomm and it looks as though they're just kind of bickering back and forth on Christ and value might be resolved soon but that's something that you definitely want to do so I will I what I also like to do is look at articles below this section here on fingers I'm going to include one of them with today's video it's all about its a Reuters article about this Broadcom offer for qual Club so it might be helpful for you to know that and so to quickly recap I started today's video with a look at the Russell index and we note that that price strength has come back into the russell having said that today might be a bit of an interesting day with that Jerome Powell testimony so we want to make sure that that price strength continues here we looked at the sector that a VGO is in we looked at the ETF Excel K which is the ETF for the technology sector we step back to take a look at it on the five-year chart and we note that on the five year it's in a strong uptrend we looked at the chart for AVG o the five-year and two-year and we note that it's in an uptrend overall and on this two-year chart it's at an area of possible price continuation remember we saw that nice bullish looking hammer shaping up in this area of support resistance should it go over that would be very good for a BGO it's got an excellent value score and an excellent growth score with a forecast earnings growth rate of 31% that's a nice high number a dividend yield of 2.7 7% it already has a 3 an ATM a cross which I use but I as I said in my video I want to see that price strength tick higher from here and move out of this little pattern on the daily chart so you might want to just take a look at that it's got seasonality in its favor it's got analyst support we spun over to fin biz and we can see that it's got a lot of analyst support current p/e of 13.5 5 and it looks as though earnings will be on March 15th
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