저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 중동 분쟁이 억제될지가 시장의 핵심 변수이며, 확대 시 글로벌 경기 약화와 인플레 압력이 커질 수 있다. 이스라엘-하마스 분쟁: 현재 시장은 분쟁을 국지적으로 보고 있으나, 이란·시리아·레바논 등으로 확대되면 전쟁 장기화 우려가 있다. 다우 150포인트 하락, 유가 4% 상승 수준은 아직 제한적 반응이며 국채 금리도 유의미하게 내려오지 않았다. 리스크 평가: 지정학 긴장, 성장 부족, 정책 실수가 겹치며 위기 빈도가 높아지고 있다. 지난주 10년물 금리 100bp 상승, 유가 급등, 달러 강세 3가지가 겹친 것은 역사적으로 금융시스템 어딘가를 깨뜨린 조합이었다. 금리·연준: 금리 리스크는 아직 끝나지 않았고 신용·유동성 리스크가 남아 있다. 연준이 고금리를 장기간 유지하는 정책 실수 가능성을 지적했고, 2% 인플레 목표가 현실적이지 않다고 주장했다. 투자 조언: 시장이 분쟁을 억제 가능한 것으로 보고 있어 추가 프리미엄이 반영돼야 한다는 견해를 시사했으나, 구체적 종목·자산 매매 권고는 없다. 역사적 맥락: 1973년 욤키푸르 전쟁 50주년이며, 중동 정세가 다시 원점으로 돌아갔다는 평가다. 아브라함 협정 등으로 이스라엘-아랍 관계가 개선되었으나 팔레스타인 문제를 간과한 것이 실수였다고 지적했다. 가자 지역 대규모 희생과 보복 순환이 반복될 우려가 있으며, 공정하고 포괄적인 평화가 가능한지가 핵심 질문이다.
다듬은 글
the market also paying close attention to the events in the Middle East and joining us right now is Muhammad L Aran he is grammar C an alliance Allan adviser and president of Queens College Cambridge and Muhammad last week after the jobs report you said that a soft Landing was much less likely um that things there's a risk of something breaking how do you now assess everything with this added on top of it so Becky given what's happened over the weekend and my thoughts and prayers are with the families and friends of those who lost loved ones and all the other in people who either missing um or have been taken hostage look this makes the US Outlook even more difficult I think the key question and you've got some really good guests coming up is is this conflict contained or does it bring in other parties so far the markets are trading as if it's contained um but if this expands and brings in other parties then the Outlook is for even a weaker global economy even more inflationary pressures and and the markets are going to be be finding it hard to deal with that look there's the idea that's been not 100% um confirmed at this point but a very uh likely idea that we've already got Iranian in involvement with this so if Israel retaliates against the Iranians is that what you're talking about by expanding so you can see a scenario and again you have other people who can speak with more Authority a scenario in which Israel retaliates against Iran Iran gets engaged Syria and Lebanon start get being an act much more active front it's active now but much more active and then you've got a significant war going on and then ask the question what's going to happen with Ukraine at this point and Russia what's going to happen with China so this is why the big question for the markets and for the economy is whether you get escalation if you look at the way we're trading right now it is a somewhat higher risk of escalation but not significant and that's the major call it doesn't even feel much like that I mean 150 points down in the Dow you can walk on in on any given morning correct and only 4% um oil up if you look at government bonds around the world they haven't come yields haven't come down in any meaningful manner so so so the market is treating this as a contained issue and I think that's the major question that has to be debated does it does it remain contained what what would you advise what would you do in the markets today it's sounds like you think there should be a higher premium built into this if you step back we are every day facing more and more uncertainties and this is what you get when you have geopolitical tensions this is what you get when growth is insufficient and this is what you get when you get policy mistakes so yes we are on this road where we seem to get crisis you know Andrew and I were at an event talked about geopolitical issues that issue wasn't even mentioned and this was a a couple of weeks ago and you had geopolitical experts and it wasn't even mentioned so you know it's another Unthinkable that has become reality just in terms of how you would be looking at this some people have pointed back to the 1973 yam kapor wh other people look at this and say okay you're running into trouble from maybe not great fin financial crisis levels of things but the idea that things break I mean that's what you were talking about last week what do you look out and think could potentially break so last week when I was talking about this is because you had the combination of three things you had a significant move up in yields since the end of the second quarter the ten year had moved up 100 basis points that is a significant move you had a significant move up in oil and you had a significant move up in the dollar historically those three things happening break something they tend to break something in the financial system and the market concern is that we haven't even finished with interest rate risk and then there's credit and liquidity risk there so so that that was that was the issue is is pay attention to what has happened over the last few months because historically that is not a great combination for the economy or for the markets you talk about policy mistakes you mean the FED continuing to raise rates potentially or keep them higher for longer you've heard I think the the FED has done enough but this assumes that you're willing to acknowledge what I think is true which is we live in a world of inflexible apply and the FED has to get used to the to the notion that 2% inflation is not the right target to get too quickly mam I think everyone just had a Viewpoint that the Middle East had been I don't know it it it wasn't settled but it seemed a lot more stable and I know just last week one of the presidents Jake Sullivan Jake Sullivan was saying it's been decades quieter there than ever so now I can only imagine how how in the the feeling of Israelis at this point must be just they are just beyond Furious and just they they are they want there there's going to be we heard Netanyahu say there's going to be a retaliation like you never seen we already know that that Palestinians I I don't know whether we thought that that was being somehow settled which it never really was I guess but if if there's really a lot of Carnage in Gaza which I I think we respect this whole thing we are back to square one on on this whole thing the whole world looks a little different and much more I think the Middle East is going to be what we've always viewed it as back to the to just a complete powder cake and and then you throw in nuclear capabilities with Iran it seems like the whole world changed over the weekend I I hope we're not back to square one because Israel has peace treaties with a number of Arab countries which they didn't have in 1973 but the mistake we all made is that we marginalize the Palestinian Israeli issue we assume that this is all about Israel and other countries so the Abraham Accords what can happen between Israel and Saudi Arabia and we marginalized the Palestinian issue and now the Palestinian issue has imposed itself this is going to be awful because understandably Israel is going to go after Gaza Gaza as you all that's going to just infuriate and whatever grievance has long held the Palestinian that's just going to be exponential worse it is and there's going to be a lot of innocent people dying and those images are going to go around the world and each one of them that you know will scarred for the rest of their life remembering this was because of Israel and then Israel saying this is because and it's just you know the Vicious Cycle is going to repeat itself I guess that's why and and you know if if you will be talking to people they'll say that ultimately this the question is can you get a just and comprehensive peace there or not otherwise this cycle repeat itself you know it's 50 years since the 73 War it's exactly 50 years since the 73 War
Comments 0