저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
영상은 Trueflation 실시간 물가지수 1.2%를 근거로 금리 인하와 유동성 확대를 전망하고, 비트코인이 4년 주기 하락 막바지에 80~90K까지 얕게 테스트 후 반등할 것이라는 Cathie Wood(ARK Invest) 견해를 소개한다. 2026년 기관 채택 가속, 규제 명확화(시장구조법안) 1분기 통과 가능성, 2030년 디지털자산 시총 28조달러 전망(ARK Big Ideas)을 제시하며, 암호화폐가 금·은 대비 저평가됐다고 주장한다.
다듬은 글
I know there's a lot of fear about the four year cycle. We didn't have much of an up cycle by Bitcoin standards. So we think we're pretty well through the down cycle here. We may test in this 80 to 90,000 range on Bitcoin. But we do think that the test will be successful. It will be the shallowest four year cycle decline in Bitcoin short history and then we're off again.
We think this is three revolutions in one. A global monetary system rules based competing against fiat currency to be sure. It is a technology revolution and it is the leader of a new asset class. The new inflation report just dropped from Trueflation and it is now at 1.2%. This is crazy. Now at the same exact time that this report just dropped, we also just heard from Cathie Wood regarding what to expect this year in the crypto markets.
And let's just say she is very bullish. Now I want to go over a few things here. Let's first start off with of course the inflation report. I did say here breaking real inflation data just dropped according to Trueflation's real-time index US inflation is now 1.2% which is way below the government's outdated CPI.
That's real purchasing power gains happening right now. Why it matters. Official CPI still prints higher because it's slow, survey based and lagging. Trueflation uses millions of live price points daily. Markets price off real-time signals first, not old delayed reports. This could mean the Fed rate cuts coming sooner, liquidity expansion happening and risk assets like crypto and stocks getting a big boost.
The narrative just flipped. Inflation isn't hot, it's cooling fast. Now, with this in mind, we look at a few things happening around the space and some predictions that have been getting dropped recently. One of the most recent ones is of course from Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse mentioning that the crypto markets will reach an all-time high this year.
A lot of CEOs in the space are very bullish on the outlook. Now, does this concern me a bit because in previous cycles they were also very bullish right before the top? It is a little bit concerning. However, when we think about the facts here, with inflation cooling, while the market has been chopping for months on end and you know, old coins really haven't done much since going all the way back to January of 2025, it does feel as if the market has changed quite a bit and we're not going to follow the typical time frame and I also don't think that the market is topped out at this moment.
Now, with that in mind, we're also looking at the overall outlook for 2026. And if you guys do remember that report from Grayscale, 2026 is essentially being, you know, termed the dawn of the institutional era. It is the institutional era year and if we're looking at things happening here, the main key takeaways is that 2026 is going to accelerate structural shifts in digital assets.
Like for example, the macro demand for alternative stores of value and improved regulatory clarity. Now, we know that regulatory clarity is still being worked on. We've been talking about it for a while now, which will definitely address in this video. Um, I do think that that's going to accelerate a lot of the things that we are looking forward to in crypto.
Like for example, institutional adoption, institutional capital flooding into the space. Um, but also on top of that, the four-year cycle is essentially dead. It's no longer a thing. We are following liquidity and liquidity has expanded beyond the four-year cycle, uh, which is something that I've also been addressing on the channel for a bit of time now.
But if we're looking at what's really happening here, I mean the overall setup for crypto uh looks very good for this year. Now, we also look at all of the additional markets in the world like for example, the money supply. Uh big shout out to Ted Pillos for this. We have US M2 supply at all-time highs, Japan, China, Euro all at all-time highs.
The money supply is expanding rapidly. Stocks are also at all-time highs, precious metals are at all-time highs. Only the crypto market is far off from its all-time highs. In my opinion, institutions will look at this and will allocate some fresh capital into Bitcoin and all coins in quarter one of this year.
Now, I believe that that is also going to be the case, especially considering the fact that gold and silver just hit an additional all-time high. And if we're thinking about this logically, what have we been hearing this entire year? We have been hearing about tokenization, about institutional adoption.
Institutional players are focused on the overall outlook of crypto. They know that the crypto market has been lagging behind all other financial markets including of course stocks, gold, and even silver. Um but this is also at the same exact time that institutional players are more involved in crypto than ever before.
From ETFs to tokenization to even stablecoin initiatives. So, in my opinion, I do believe that Ted is correct. I think that we will start to see more capital rotation into the crypto market. I mean even if we're looking at the market cap of select monetary assets like gold for an example, I mean guys, crypto is so undervalued compared to some of these markets, especially even silver now because before silver was really never brought into the equation, but now we have to talk about it because silver has been going on an absolute massive tear.
And if we're thinking about that with crypto still hovering around roughly like a $3 trillion market cap, I do suspect that the upside potential on crypto is significantly higher this time around than ever before. Because again, if we think about us being at that three trillion dollar market cap, that means that we could easily hit, you know, six to 10 plus trillion dollars, you know, this cycle, and who knows where we could be by 2030.
But we did get an update from Arc Invest regarding that, which we'll definitely talk about. But let's go over here real quick to the first video clip of Cathie Wood. Now we have here from Crypto's R Us, the shallowest Bitcoin bear cycle in history is almost over. Cathie Wood from Arc Invest just laid it out.
We've already powered through most of the down cycle, and any dip to test 80 to 90K should be shallow and successful. The mildest pullback Bitcoin has ever seen. Why this isn't just another halving cycle anymore. It's three revolutions colliding. A new global monetary system competing head-on with fiat, a massive technology breakthrough, the birth of an entirely new asset class with institutional firepower behind it.
The fear is real for many, but Cathie sees the Bitcoin bottom forming, and the next leg up ready to launch. Check it out. I know there's a lot of fear about the four-year cycle. We didn't have much of an up cycle by Bitcoin standards, so we think we're pretty well through the down cycle here. We may test in this 80 to 90,000 range on Bitcoin.
But we do think that the test will be successful. It will be the shallowest four-year cycle decline in Bitcoin's short history. And then we're off again. We think this is three revolutions in one. A global monetary system rules-based competing against fiat currency to be sure. It is a a revolution, and it is the leader of a new asset class.
I know there's a lot And yeah, I mean listen, if we are thinking about what's really happening here, yeah, we are in that massive technology breakthrough era for crypto, especially when you are looking at the institutional side of things. What are institutional players really excited about with crypto?
Are they excited about price action? No, they don't care about price action because if they did, these downtrends in the market would scare them away. In fact, they're here flooding in during this time. And the reason why is because they see the power behind tokenization around stablecoins, around on-chain payments and transactions.
They are more bullish about the technology than ever before. Now, on top of that, we also have Cathie Wood sees a Goldilocks setup. She says the US already lived through a rolling recession, housing, manufacturing, small business, consumer sentiment, all took the hit. What's next is what markets may be underpricing.
Tax cuts plus big refunds in quarter one, a new corporate investment cycle, deregulation, she she says this is highly underestimated. Lower rates plus easing inflation. If she's right, this isn't late-cycle stress, it's the setup for risk assets to run again. And this goes hand-in-hand with that first post that I mentioned with inflation dropping to 1.2%.
This opens the door for more Fed rate cuts, liquidity expansion, and of course, risk assets will get the big boost that they have been dying for. Now, listen closely to what Cathie is saying here. Yes, well, we think that we've been through a rolling recession. We've seen it in housing, manufacturing, small business, consumer sentiment.
And that thanks to tax cuts, big refunds this first quarter, but corporate tax cuts as well, so big investment cycle ahead. Uh as well as deregulation, which I think is highly underestimated in terms of its impact Uh and lower interest rates and lower inflation sounds like Goldilocks that that is all going to play out this year and be very good for the financial markets.
Yes, well, we think that And yeah, I mean listen, if this all plays out within like the quarter one time frame, yeah, this is going to be absolutely bullish for risk on assets. I feel as if right now the risk on asset side of you know, the market crypto stocks. I mean stocks not so much because stocks have been rallying already, but crypto has been lagging behind everything and everyone has been saying, oh, well, you know, crypto's going to sit this one out crypto's done.
Nobody cares about crypto. They're ignoring crypto. I think that that statement alone should make you very bullish because everyone is expecting Bitcoin and crypto itself to just sit on the sidelines watching as stocks run, gold and silver run. I mean crypto really is the only market not running right now.
So if we think about that logically, this is where smart money starts to look at where can they park their money in a market that hasn't really done much. Crypto is that market. So if we think about the setup, yeah, if this fully plays out the way that Kathy is saying, if we are thinking about everything happening by the end of quarter one like this, then just like Ted is saying, we should start to see institutional players flooding in with capital which will cause crypto to expand rapidly.
But what about even longer term? Well, if we go over here to Arc Invest Big Ideas 2026, digital assets aka crypto could reach 28 trillion dollars in market value by 2030. If we're thinking about that, we are at roughly a $3 trillion market cap of crypto currently. That would be almost a 10x return in the total market value.
That would absolutely be insane to see. Now, if we're thinking about this, this might sound crazy. It might sound like, oh, $28 trillion, absolutely no way. However, we just witnessed silver and gold adding trillions and trillions of dollars to their market cap in such a short amount of time. I personally believe that crypto will outperform gold and silver.
They owe it Crypto has always outperformed both gold and silver. Um but it's going to outperform them in a much larger way. And then if we think about the total market itself, I do think that we could rally against the overall market value of gold and silver combined. I mean, by 2030, I think that $28 trillion might be conservative for crypto because you got to think about the clarity side of things, right?
Like once we have full on clarity for crypto, that opens up the floodgates for institutional players to flood in. Not to mention what would happen after we get clarity for the utilization of the underlying rails. The value that would be moving over the rails itself could very well be in trillions and trillions of dollars per month.
We already know that stablecoins right now, the total value being moved per month is about roughly like 8 and 1/2 trillion dollars. I see that being multiplied in a big way once we see clarity for crypto. Now, we do know that we just got a new draft of the crypto market structure bill from the Senate AG Committee.
Uh if again, this is if this gets streamlined through, if everything's all fine, negotiations are done, and we get this by the end of quarter one, that's just another major catalyst on top of everything that we just went over to support crypto going even crazier. Now, we did hear from David Sachs regarding the market structure bill.
He said that after the market structure passes, banks will get fully into crypto. Check it out. A good compromise is everyone leaves a little bit unhappy. Right. Right. But I I think what's going to happen is that after market structure passes, the banks are going to get fully into the crypto industry.
So, we're not going to have a separate banking industry and crypto industry. It's going to be one digital assets industry. And I think their their opinions are going to evolve over time. And I bet you over time, the banks like the idea of paying yield because they're going to be in the stablecoin business.
But will they also be regulated the same way? And I I guess that's a big I mean, the banks will say, "Hey, if they get to do all the same things we do, how come they don't get regulated the same way?" Well, I guess because they're offering slightly different products, right? So, but I mean, everyone offering the same product should be up should be regulated the same way.
And we want to get to that harmonization. A good comp So, yeah. I mean, listen, if we can get this bill passed through in a way that drives, not harms, competition by the end of quarter one, I mean, guys, this market could be significantly higher in value. Altcoins could be significantly higher in value.
I don't think people realize just what's happening here around crypto. I think everyone is looking at price action and getting distracted and saying like, "Oh, well, you know, I should have never even invest into crypto. I should have just, you know, threw my money in gold and silver or this or that." And when we start to hear these types of discussions, it gets you bullish on the overall outlook on crypto, especially at a time where yeah, regulations are so close to being passed through, institutional players are lining up.
They've been telling you exactly what they're doing with crypto. They they're extremely bullish on tokenization, on stablecoins and things like that. Um I think that this is a very very good time to be locked in on crypto. I know that a lot of people say like, "Oh, no, you know, we should have exited crypto a year ago." I don't think that that's the case.
I really do think that now is the best time to be focused on what's happening in the crypto market, especially if we're thinking about the tech side of things. Because again, I don't look at this as a bull or bear cycle. I look at it as a tech cycle. Just like Cathie Wood is saying over here, right?
We have that three revolution side of the market colliding. We have that new global monetary system essentially, but then we also have a massive technology breakthrough, which is definitely a big one to focus on because again, the tech is not slowing down. In fact, it's accelerating. And then we also have the the birth of an entirely new asset class.
So again, I think a lot of people are underestimating exactly what's going to be happening here with crypto over the coming, you know, weeks and months ahead. Right now, it might seem like nothing's happening that, you know, we're only going to, you know, go lower, but again, we'll look back at this time and say it was so obvious that we were going much higher, but nobody wanted to believe it. So with that being said, I hope that you guys enjoyed this video.
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