저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 좋은 사업·좋은 경영진을 합리적 가격에 사고, 단기 매매보다 기업 이해와 장기 복리를 우선하라는 가치투자 원칙 강조. 투자 판단 프레임(QGLP): 품질(Quality)·성장(Growth)·장수(Longevity)·합리적 가격(Price)의 네 요소로 기업을 평가. 좋은 사업은 장기 복리 능력이 있어야 하며, 현재 이익의 수십 배 성장 잠재력이 핵심. 경영진 평가: 경영 역량과 가치관, 성장 욕구를 중시. 좋은 사업도 나쁜 경영진을 만나면 0이 된다는 점을 강조. 밸류에이션: 가격보다 가치 추정이 중요. 예시로 현재 이익 100억 원 기업이 10년간 25% 복리 성장하고 PER 15 유지 시 약 10배 수익 가능성을 제시. 매매 원칙: 회전매매(churning)는 본질이 아니며 좋은 기업을 적정 가격에 사는 것이 가장 중요. 매도 타이밍보다 매수 품질이 중요하다고 주장. 장기 보유 기준: 기업과 성장 스토리가 가정대로 진행되는지 확인해야 하며, 주가 하락 자체를 장기 투자 실패의 이유로 볼 수 없다고 봄. 가정이 깨졌다면 시기와 관계없이 판단 재검토 필요. 멀티배거: 사전에 특정하기 어려우며, 초기 비중은 2.5~3%로 시작해 기업이 기대보다 좋을 때 확대. 5~10년 내 10배 이상을 멀티배거로 정의. 외부 환경(기술 채택, 순풍)과 투자자 열기도 큰 역할을 한다고 언급. 시장 전망: 코로나 등 충격으로 레버리지 높은 은행·NBFC 등 기존 승자에 대한 재평가 가능성, 새로운 승자 등장 예상. 경제 회복은 2021~2023년경 에너지 있게 올 것으로 전망하며 '인도에 베팅하지 말라는 것에 반대(don't bet against India)'를 강조. 출연자는 특정 종목 추천을 하지 않겠다고 명시.
다듬은 글
welcome back well you know we are on the investment guide talking to one of india's best known now you know let's talk about some important topics uh you know and i'll give you an example ramda you invested in hero honda then it was hiro honda of course and you reached a point where the dividend income every year was five or six x of your original investment now how do you decide uh you know you own the business right how to decide this is the business that i want to own uh and you know this is going to create wealth for me what's the you know what's the what's the decision process uh explain to us yeah so now in last 25 years this i did in 96 but uh in last say about 25 years we have coded the entire process as qglp quality growth longevity at reasonable price so uh so if you if i when i look at a stock i mean the process remains same even today as it was in 95 so you know when you come across a quality business high quality business one fundamental thing to understand is there are two types of business good business and bad business and the businesses can be so good you cannot believe it can be just a free cash flow machine and the business can be so bad it can be just a dumping ground of the capital so there are two contrasts in the businesses you have to understand fundamentally the moment you look at the business any company idea comes or any thought process comes first you have to figure out whether you are looking at a good business or bad brands only the good businesses compound in the long term making money in the stock market is all about compounding so you have to find a business or business opportunity which is not only good but which has a compounding capability in the future so that is one potential you are buying into and that is before you even you have started the research first flash would be to figure out whether the business is very good and it has a long-term uh long-term potential uh positive potential outlook so if something is making 100 crores you must figure out whether it can it has the potential to make multiple some i mean 25 30 100 times a thousand times of the current profits this business has the potential to make so once whether it will make or not that only time will tell but whether the potential is there or not so that's one thing second is the second is the quality of management which is most important because even a good business run by bad management so one multiplied by zero is equal to zero so what you have to say is whether the management is competent or not and uh so in india you get a lot of competent management because if the management is not competent companies not gonna make money so you need top quality business you need top quality management and what are the qualities you are looking for in management uh terrific competence and uh good value system terrific value system and third a growth passion you know the guys who are wanting to make it big in life i mean uh once a company starts making hundred close or 150 crores then a lot of narratives they take up they take a slow land or they don't want to grow they don't want to compete so those kind of managements cannot go far because everywhere there will be competition there'll be lot of challenges but growth mindset allows you to go multiple eggs from wherever you are so terrified business run by traffic management with terrific potential this itself allows you to make a lot of money you will make money now uh once you have the quality business run by quality management 99 job is done then once your value pack is seen this is a value value pack then you look at the price i mean this particular business which you are buying today which you decided to buy you have you said yes both the boxers checked in good business good management now let me look at the price because investing is all about the at what price you buy your purchase price will decide your rate of return and hence you have to look at the valuation and that's where bit of technicality comes in whether you are paying too much because the margin of safety between the price and the value is very important nobody wants to do the hard work of ss estimating the value everybody looks at the price anybody looking the price has no advantage in looking at the price the real advantage is trying to understand the value that is an art form to estimate the value of a company once you think that this company which is making today 100 crores and it can make about a thousand crores in next 10 years 25 compounded and the current p multiple is say 15 and if the terminal p multiply also go to 15 you are sitting on a possibility of making 25 compounded for next 10 years which is a 10 mega and that's how you decide okay let me get in okay you know that's that's how uh i thought when i looked at uh you know honda there were many other things and understanding the company but that you know i mean when you get to nitty gritty of understanding your business yes you get into that but it was a fantastic business on the day one okay that's and that's the entry point we're getting a question uh from krishnadan that okay entry is fine but is it important for an investor to churn the portfolio at a regular levels or just stay put and how do you decide that that's also important see what is important is to buy right you know you have to buy something which is worth 100 rupees at uh 30 40 50 rupees that is most important and as the journey starts and you have made five times 10 times 20 times it doesn't really matter i mean you you didn't sell it at top i mean uh i remember when i i bought bharti airtel in 2003 at 25 bucks it went to 1200 and then for some reason i couldn't sell at that price at that point of time i sold it at more like say 650 or 650 rupees so it still it was 25 30 times which is good enough so you don't have to focus on churning and all those that is not the universality too this is this before your board you are thinking about churning and all this is not the university it is more like a speculation so you have to be very careful where you are focusing as an investor you have to focus on investing on the right company at right price at right time that is more important than trying to figure out whether i should churn or this or that that is much later even you do a bad job of selling you'll do a wonderful job of investing okay um uh now ramdev actually on one hand there is this investor who was asking about churning on the other hand there's one more query coming in let's see if we can pull that up uh this one is from suresh suryash rama murthy and he is asking you saying dear ramdev can you please define long term many stocks that i bought are now at 10 year lows and have approached my cost price if i had sold at the high i could have re-entered at lower levels i would have made some money so i think you know this is the other thing uh ramdev what is your definition of long term and should it be different in different market context or different economic context do you need to keep re-looking at that stock or is it just buy and then just hold no i mean you see the point is if you have bought it right and you bought the good company growing company at uh at a reasonable price generally uh in uh in actually in the very first day you should make money i mean you have to really question whether uh why you are not making money are your assumptions right what you thought about the company's company's story about you know how it is going to develop whether it is developing right or not it's not about the price see if you're looking only at price you're ignorant about what's uh what's underlying businesses you should be able to make whether the first most important thing in investing is whether you understand the business or the company or not that is 99 of investing if you don't understand uh what you're buying i mean what is the underlying thing is it gold is it silver is it diamond that you must know and if the moment you know that this is what i bought and the story has gone wrong your assumptions have gone wrong because it's all about the future you're buying the future if if that assumption has gone wrong you yourself know that things have gone wrong whether it has gone wrong in six months or three years or five years you have to figure out i don't think uh you must blame the long term or short term for non-performance of the stock i mean stocks are all types you know some stocks are multibaggers some stocks are uh study performers some stocks are going just straight from hero to zero so you have to be in the control of your destiny and that control of destiny comes from your understanding of what you have bought welcome back well we are in conversation with ramdev ram there a lot of people asking that okay past multibaggers what's the next multibagger right in the current market situation uh what should you look at to identify the next five or 10x bagger any thoughts i mean it is so difficult to say today if i was knowing that this is going to be a multibagger i would put 90 of my net worth out there but it you it is the nature of the stuff i mean i have seen this this correction taught us a lot of things one of the thing is that highest conviction is top corrected maximum now where is the question of saying that this stock will be multi beggar so when you put a bet on the companies typically you start with uh three four percent of the portfolio i start typically with two and half three percent of the portfolio and then you know once you are into the stock then you start realizing that uh the stock is better than what you thought and then many times what happens is the multibagger happens one because of the earnings growth and you have been able to buy very cheap i mean if the what i said the formula for multibagger if you are able to buy a stock with 25 growth at 12 15 pe and if the actually growth delivers in next five six years you are bound to sit on a multibagger and it also depends what is the multibagger i would say anything which is 10x in five years six years or even ten years is a multibagger and today it is i mean every stock we buy i mean in the portfolio of 2025 stocks almost all of them at least 50 60 of them have the potential to be a multibagger many times multibagger is not because what you thought many times multi-bigger is because of the external environment because what happens is you think that something is going to happen but something happens which is far better than what you ever thought like you might be seeing today in kovad because of the kobe the the importance of technology or some of the some of the companies are adoption of online i mean people are struggling for many years for people to adopt the online sales and suddenly you realize that they are going by 200 300 that you never thought three years back but today it is happening what didn't happen in three years has happened in three months so you know a lot of multi-packing happens because of even external uh what you call tailwind i would say hell wins and even a fourier of the euphoria of the investors like i remember in in hirohonda we had a wonderful journey between 96 and 203 or 2004 i stayed till 2014 in first round but uh the stock never went beyond 15 17 p multiple the earnings growth were 25 30 35 40 but the stock never took the fancy of the market and never became very expensive so you know it all depends on your luck also at times multibagging has a lot of role of the tailwind a lot of role of the you know external environment becoming very conducive in terms of being multiple and of course the performance of the company bedrock is the performance of the company now if i i mean i'm not supposed to discuss any specific stock i have oven that's my job i keep finding things we have put in our portfolios and they are supposed to be some of them are clearly supposed to be multibaggers because uh particularly in the mid cap segment uh some of the companies have come to a level particularly last two months that there's a potential to be a mini multi vegas if not a huge multibagger in next three four years so yes but i am not anybody to talk so much in detail about a particular company sure sure that's that's not the mandate over here on this uh this show at least rando but you know i do want to ask you this as you said over three decades you've been in the market picking stocks you've seen multiple cycles scams the global financial crisis and now this pandemic is there anything different about this cycle this extent of global economic disruption do you think it's going to change stock picking or portfolios in in any meaningful manner uh no i don't think investing style is going to change lot of new opportunities will come up for sure i mean the opportunities which were not there they will come up and some of the things which are looking very good they might also some some businesses which are looking far better than what they were there they will also to expose particularly the ones which are leveraged they banks or nbfcs and many other businesses which were very leveraged and they were looking absolutely invincible in their kind of growth story and things like that i think there'll be a lot of rethinking in the market about them so that is the past winners now uh uh the same you know this panda bag will give birth to new business models new winners new multibaggers and with a new vigor because economy is going to come back maybe in 21 22 or 20 to 23 uh with a uh with a lot more energy okay but the where the energy will be shown whether and then the government is also going to change lot of rules there will be a lot of liberation you know one of the presentation i was making uh just last week was don't bet against india because last 35 40 years i have seen this market going under tax next next 30 35 year looks as promising now the opportunities keep coming if you have a prepared mind you have see the issue is that do you have a framework of picking a stock stocks will walk into your framework i'm telling you if you are clear about what you're looking for the uh whatever you get to see you have to keep saying no no no and then finally uh in two months three months six months time you'll keep getting ideas and when that idea comes to you back up the truck and buy as much as you can buy so it is all about the prepare mind your frameworks your uh eagerness to look at new uh new ideas uh turn as many stones as you can and you'll find your gems okay ramdev thank you so much it's always a pleasure to
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