저자: 미상 · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 영상은 워런 버핏의 투자 철학(능력범위 내 투자, 소수의 확신 있는 결정)을 소개하며 구체적 종목 가격 예측은 포함하지 않는다. 능력범위(circle of competence): 투자자는 자신이 평가할 수 있는 기업을 구분해야 하며, 수천 개 기업을 다 맞출 필요는 없고 몇 개만 제대로 판단하면 된다. 타자 비유: 테드 윌리엄스의 '과학적 타격' 책을 인용, 스트라이크 존 안의 좋은 공만 쳐도 타율이 4할, 나쁜 공까지 치면 2할 3푼으로 떨어진다. 투자에는 '볼 스트라이크 판정'이 없으므로 기다렸다가 이해되고 가격이 매력적일 때만 움직이면 된다. 의사결정 빈도: 모든 것에 의견을 가질 필요는 없고, 평생 20번의 투자 결정 카드를 받는다는 비유로 소수의 신중한 결정만으로 큰 부를 얻을 수 있다고 설명한다. 4~5번의 옳은 결정이면 충분할 수 있다. 빌 게이츠 일화: 1991년 만남에서 컴퓨터의 필요성을 권유받았으나, 본인은 보유 종목이 하나뿐이라 필요 없다고 답했다는 일화를 소개한다. 아마존 평가: 제프 베이조스의 성과는 대단하지만, 그 기업이 성공하고 다른 기업들은 실패할 것을 예측할 능력은 자신에게 없다고 밝힌다. 코카콜라 사례: 1886년 창립 이후 역사와 하루 18억 잔 판매량을 근거로, 1페니 가격 인상이 연간 약 65억 달러의 이익을 가져온다는 계산을 제시하며 브랜드 가치와 장기 보유의 근거로 든다. 은행 투자: 뱅크오브아메리카에 대해서도 의견을 형성해 투자한 경험을 언급한다. 리스크/조건: 이해하지 못하는 사업에는 투자하지 않는 원칙을 강조하며, 시장 타이밍이나 단기 가격 방향에 대한 언급은 없다. 출연자 전망: 특정 시장 전망이나 단기 가격 예측은 제시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
it's important thing is to the side is to be able to define which ones you can come to an intelligent decision on and which ones are beyond your capacity to evaluate you don't have to be right about thousands and thousands of thousands of competition you only have to be right about a company couple I met Bill Gates on July 5th 1991 we arrived Seattle and bill said you've got to have a computer and I said why and he said well he said you can do your income tax on it I said I don't have any income Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend yeah he said well you can keep track of your portfolio I said I only have one stock I said I did I mean he says it's gonna change everything and I said well will it change whether people chew gum and he said well probably not and I said well we'll change what kind of gum they'd show and I said well then I'll stick a chewing gum and you stick to computers hell I don't have to understand all kinds of but there's all kinds of business I don't understand but there's thousands of opportunities there I didn't understand the Bank of America you know and and I'll be able to do that I'm able to understand some given percentage but Ted Williams wrote a book called the science of hitting and in science of hitting he's got a diagram shows him at the plate and he's got the strike zone divided in the seventy-seven squares each the size of a baseball and he says if I only swing at pitches in my sweet zone which he shows there and he has what his batting average would be which is 400 if he had to swing at low outside pitches but still in the in the strike zone his average would be 230 he said the most important thing in hitting is waiting for the right pitch now he was at a disadvantage because if the count was oh and two or one and two or so on even if that ball was down where he was only going about 230 he had to swing at it in investing there's no called strikes people can throw Microsoft that and you know you name it any any stock General Motors and I don't have to swing yeah nobody's gonna call me out on call strikes I only get a strike call if I swing at the pitch and mess so I can wait there and look at thousands of companies day after day and only when I see something I understand and when I like the price of which is selling then if I swing if I if I had it fine if I miss it it's it's it's a strike but it's an enormous ly advantageous game and it's a terrible mistake to think you have to have an opinion on everything you only have to have an opinion on a few things in fact I've told students if when they got out of school they got a punch card with 20 punches on it and that's all the investment decisions they got to make in their entire life they would get very rich because they would think very hard about each one and you don't need 20 right decisions to get very rich you know four or five will probably do it over time so I don't worry too much about the things I don't understand it if you understand some of these businesses that are coming along and can spot things on if you can spot on Amazon for example I mean it's a tremendous accomplishment what Jeff Bezos has done and I tip my hat to me's a wonderful business man he's a good guy too but could I have anticipated that he would be the success and ten others wouldn't be I'm not good enough to do that but I don't fortunately I don't have to you know I don't have to form an opinion on on Amazon and I did I did form an opinion on the Bank of America and I form an opinion on coca-cola I mean coca-cola has been around since 1886 there's 1.8 billion 1.8 billion 8 ounce servings of Coca Cola products sold every day now if you take one penny and get one penny extra that's 18 million dollars a day and 18 million times 365 is 7 billion 3 less 730 billion orders there's 6 billion 570 million dollars so annually 6 billion 570 million dollars from one penny do you think coca-cola is worth a penny more than you know Joe's called I think so so you know and I've got about a hundred and twenty seven years of history that would indicate it so those are the kind of decisions I like to make and you may have an entirely different field of expertise than I would have and probably much more up-to-date in terms of the kind of businesses that we're seeing about and you can get very rich if you just understand the feel of them and understand their future but the important thing is to decide what is to be able to define which ones you can come to an intelligent decision on and which ones are beyond your capacity to evaluate you don't have to be right about thousands and thousands and thousands of competition you only have to be right about a company couple I met Bill Gates on July 5th 1991 we arrived Seattle and Bill said you've got to have a computer and I said why and he said well he said you can do your income tax on it I said I don't have any income Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend yeah he said well you can keep track of your portfolio I said I only have one stock I said I did I mean he says it's gonna change everything and I said well will it change whether people chew gum and he said well probably not and I said well we'll change what kind of gum they'd show and I said well then I'll stick a chewing gum and you stick to computers so I don't have to understand all kinds of but there's all kinds of business I don't understand but there's thousands of opportunities there I didn't understand the Bank of America you know and and I'll be able to do that I'm able to understand some given percentage but Ted Williams wrote a book called the science of hitting and in the science of hitting he's got a diagram shows him at the plate and he's got the strike zone divided in the seventy seven squares each the size of a baseball and he says if I only swing at pitches in my sweet zone which he shows there and he has what is batting average which is 400 if he had to swing at low outside pitches but still in the in the strike zone his average would be 230 he said the most important thing in hitting is waiting for the right pitch now he was at a disadvantage because if the count was o and 2 or 1 and 2 or so on even if that ball was down where he was only going about 230 he had to swing on it in investing there's no called strikes people can throw Microsoft that man you know your name any any stock General Motors and I don't have to swing and nobody's gonna call me out on call strikes I only get a strike call if I swing at a pitch and miss so I can wait there and look at thousands of companies day after day and only when I see something I understand and when I like the price of which is selling then if I swing if I if I had it fine if I miss it it's it's it's a strike but it's an enormous ly advantageous game and it's a terrible mistake to think you have to have an opinion on everything you only have to have an opinion on a few things in fact I've told students if when they got out of school they got a punch card with 20 punches on it and that's all the investment decisions they got to make in their entire life they would get very rich because they would think very hard about each one and you don't need 20 right decisions to get very rich you know four or five will probably do it over time so I don't worry too much about the things I don't understand it if you understand some of these businesses that are coming along and can spot things on if you can spot on Amazon for example I mean it's a tremendous accomplishment what Jeff Bezos has done and I tip my hat to me is a wonderful businessman he's a good guy too but could I have anticipated that he would be the success and ten others wouldn't be I'm not good enough to do that but I don't fortunately I don't have to you know I don't have to form an opinion on on Amazon and I do I did form an opinion on the Bank of America and I form an opinion on coca-cola I mean Coca Cola has been around since 1886 there's 1.8 billion 1.8 billion 8 ounce servings of Coca Cola products sold now if you take one penny and get one penny extra that's 18 million dollars a day and 18 million times 365 is seven billion three less seven hundred thirty billion or six billion five hundred and seventy million dollars so annually six billion five hundred seventy million dollars from one penny do you think coca-cola is worth a penny more than you know Joe's Cola I think so so I you know and I've got about a hundred and twenty seven years of history that would indicate it so those are the kind of decisions I like to make and you may have an entirely different field of expertise than I would have and probably much more up to date in terms of the kind of businesses that we're seeing about and you can get very rich if you just understand the feel of them and understand their future but
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