저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 배터리데이 발표 내용을 요약한 영상. 4680 셀 도입으로 kWh당 원가 14달러 절감, 에너지 밀도·출력 향상, 전극 공정 개선, 라인당 생산량 7배, 네바다 리튬 점토 채굴(리튬 원가 33% 절감), 재활용 파일럿 확대, 구조 배터리 팩으로 차체 중량 10% 감소 및 주행거리 증가, 2~3년 내 25,000달러 전기차 출시 목표 등을 소개.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me kevin here i took the entire tesla battery day event and cut it down to the highlights here you go and if you like my work make sure to check out the links down below for of course my awesome programs on making money through investing in real estate and stocks enjoy we've got the tesla drive-in movie theater basically it's good to see everyone it's a little hard to read the room and we'll see the shanghai factory continue to scale uh quite a bit from where it is right now i think we really could expect that to be over time a factory that produces over a million vehicles a year you know i think the the value of tesla is going to be like total just on the vehicle side total vehicles produced times the value of autonomy that's that's a way to think about the future value of tesla and i think we'll do really pretty well in 2020 um probably somewhere between 30 to 40 percent growth despite uh a lot of very difficult circumstances um and you can see it in the you know the the the safety report that we publish every quarter um it's just getting better and better uh the u.s average for collisions is um you know at roughly 2.1 per million miles uh and with autopilot engaged it's 0.3 um i think we will hopefully release uh a private beta of of autopilot of the full self-driving version of autopilot in i think a month or so uh and then people will really uh understand just the magnitude of the change it's profound we have a plan to have the cost per kilowatt hour um and so when we put it all together and go to our new 80 millimeter length 4680 we call this new cell design we get five times the energy with six times the power and enable 16 range increase just form factor alone just the cell form factor change enables a 14 dollar per kilowatt hour reduction just that cell form factor change it's it's close to working but it's not even now it at the pilot plant level it is close to working well i ca it's fair to say it probably it does work but with not a good not a high yield yeah so we're still ironing out the kinks but we've made tens of thousands of cells thousands of kilometers of electrode i mean we are on the fourth generation of the equipment so we've learned a lot along the along the way yeah i mean it is super demanding because every atom has its place if you want to deliver the energy density and the cycle life and the supercharging yeah but but we're we're confident that we will get there but it will be a lot of work along the way there's a clear path to success but a ton of work between here and there yep so uh but this is a really profound improvement again for people that know battery uh manufacturing this is a this is gigantic the key to a high performing assembly line is accomplishing processes while in motion continuous motion uh and thinking of the line as a highway max velocity down the highway no start and stop no city driving exactly no stop lights and traffic lights or anything you want the highway not the highway yeah we were able to get to the point where we can uh implement assembly lines one line 20 gigawatt hours seven times increase in output per line and when you're thinking about scalability and pure effort having one line be 7x the capability is just effort multiplying yeah you would be astounded at how bad most factories are they're like maybe two or three percent including a factory in fremont um so i i think it is possible to get to at least uh 10 times that of volumetric efficiency uh so more like you know 30 percent uh ish maybe more um and be 10x better which means the factory can be 10 times smaller and then the other thing is how fast are things going through the factory it's like speed and density um the the the faster you go like if a factory that's moving at say twice the speed of another factory is equivalent to two factories basically and the the company that will be successful uh is the company that with one factory can accomplish what other companies take two or three or four factories to do so this is what we're trying to do here is say okay how do we uh with whether with one factory achieve what maybe five or even ten factories would normally be required to achieve what this translates to based on what we know today is about a 75 reduction uh in the investment per kilowatt hour uh or gigawatt hour it's it's just uh basically four times better than the current state of the art to the best of our knowledge uh and uh i think there's probably room to improve even beyond that definitely uh definitely yeah we're uh expecting to make on the order of uh three thousand gigawatt hours or or three terawatt hours per year um i think we can we think we've got a good chance of of achieving this actually before 2030 but i i highly confident that we could do it by by 2030.
when you look at the size of that factory on the previous page it really shows how enabling all these advancements are in achieving a three terawatt hour goal by 2030. it's also an additional 18 reduction in dollar per kilowatt hour at the battery pack level but wait there's more but wait there's more you know it's a small world journey of uh i am a nickel atom what happens to me and it's like it is crazy like you're going around the world three times it's there's like the moral equivalent of like digging in the ditch filling the ditch and digging the ditch again uh it's total madness basically uh and so we've looked at the entire value chain and said how can we make this as simple as possible and that's what we're proposing here with our process as you can see a whole less a whole lot less is going on here we get rid of the intermediate metal water final profit product cathode recirculate the water no waste water at all and when you summa summarize all of that it's the 66 reduction in capex investment a 76 reduction in process cost and zero wastewater much more scalable solution yeah we we actually got uh rights to a uh lithium clay deposit in nevada over ten thousand acres over ten thousand acres um and then the the nature of the mining is actually also very environmentally uh sensitive in that we we sort of take a chunk of dirt out of the ground or remove the lithium and then put the chunk of dirt back where it was so it will look pretty much the same as before and it will not look like terrible and yeah it will be nice nice so simply mix clay with salt put it in water salt comes out with the lithium done yeah it's pretty crazy yeah um 33 reduction in lithium cost 100 electric facility co-located with the cathode plant so we're really excited about this and and there really is enough lithium in nevada alone to electrify the entire us fleet yeah that's true actually just what's in nevada that's uh that's basically so much damn lithium on earth it's crazy we are starting our pilot full-scale recycling production uh at gigafactory reno next quarter to to continue to develop this process as as our recycling returns grew up yeah i mean to date it's been done by third parties but uh we think we can we can recycle the batteries more effectively especially since uh you know we we know our batteries we're making the same battery as the thing we're recycling so uh whereas like third-party recyclers have to consider batteries of all kinds uh we'll call it the structural battery where the battery for the first time will have dual use uh the battery will both have the use as an energy device and as structure this this is absolutely the way things are done in the early days of of aircraft they would carry the fuel tanks as cargo so the fuel tanks actually had were quite difficult to carry they were like basically worse than cargo you had to kind of bolt them down um it was very difficult uh and then somebody said hey what if we just make the wing tanks what if we just make the fuel tank in wing shape so uh all modern airplanes the fuel tank your wing is just a a fuel tank in wing shape this is absolutely the way to do it um and then the the fuel tank serves as dual structure and it's not it's no longer cargo it's fundamental to the structure of the aircraft this was a major breakthrough we're doing the same for cars it also allows us to pack the cells more densely because we do not have uh intermediate structure in the battery pack so instead of having these like uh supports and stabilizers and stringers and structural elements in the battery we now have a lot more space in the battery because the pack itself is structural basically a a honeycomb sandwich with with two face sheets uh this is actually even better than what aircraft do because aircraft do not do this they can't do this because fuel is liquid so in our case the batteries are solid so we can actually use the the steel shell case of the battery to transfer uh shear from the upper and lower face sheet which makes for an incredibly stiff structure even stiffer than a regular car so if you can uh bring things closer to the center you reduce the polymer of inertia and that means you can the car maneuvers better it just feels better you don't know why but it just it just feels more agile so it's really cool this is a really major um like i said so 10 mass reduction in the body of the car 14 range increase uh 370 fewer parts i mean i really think that that long term and any cars that do not uh take this architecture will not be competitive range increase we're unlocking up to 54 increase in range for our vehicles and energy density for our energy products uh 56 reduction in dollars per kilowatt hour at the battery pack level and a 69 reduction in investment per gigawatt hour which is the true enabler when we talk back about how do we achieve this scale problem here yeah so what what this uh enables uh us to do is achieve a new trajectory in the reduction of of uh cell cost and um now to be clear it will take us probably a year to 18 months to start realizing these uh these advantages and probably to fully realize the advantages probably it's about three years or they're about so um you know it's it's not like uh if we could do this instantly we would um but so uh you know what tends to happen as companies get bigger as things tend to slow down um well actually they're going to speed up and they have to speed up if we're going to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy yeah i mean long term we you know we want to try to uh replace about you know uh at least one percent of the total vehicle fleet on earth which is about two billion vehicles so long term we want to try to make about 20 million vehicles a year what does it mean for what does this what does this mean for our future products uh so uh we're we're confident that long term we can design and and manufacture a a compelling 25 000 electric vehicle you know this this this has always been our dream from the beginning of the company i even like wrote a blog piece about it um because you know our first car was was an expensive sports car and then as then it was like slightly less expensive sedan and then finally sort of a i don't know mass market premium but you know like the model 3 and model y um but it really is always our goal to try to make an affordable electric car and um i think probably uh like i said about about three years from now we're confident we can make a very calm a very compelling 25 000 electric vehicle uh that's also fully autonomous and when you think about the 25 000 price point you have to consider how much how much less expensive it is to own an electric vehicle yeah so actually it it becomes even more affordable at that 25 000 price point yeah so we have and extreme performance and range um and uh we should probably talk about the you know wireless plaid yeah what about that uh yeah anyway we we took the latest plaid out to laguna seca on sunday got a minute 30 and uh we think probably there's another three seconds or more to take off that time uh so uh we're confident the model s plaid will achieve the the best track time of any production vehicle ever of any kind two-door or otherwise um and you can order it now uh and it's uh available uh uh basically end of next year is it going to be possible to get climate control to the back of the cyber truck because that would be the ultimate camping machine if we can get all night climate control uh we'll try to do that yeah i agree that would be that would be really cool how does the ice industry look like for in the future uh well i don't think they will be at ice industry long term um well it's hard to say what the volume exactly would be for the cyber truck the the orders are gigantic so and we have like i don't know well over half a million orders i think maybe six or six hundred thousand that's a lot basically we start counting you
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