저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 차트 분석을 중심으로 한 방송. 래리 윌리엄스는 테슬라 장기 42개월 사이클이 저점을 지나 내년 2분기까지 상승 가능하다고 봄. 테슬라: 중기 사이클상 현재부터 9월 초까지 80% 확률로 상승 경향. 헤지펀드·뮤추얼펀드 매수세 강함. 단기 조정 시 매수 권고, 큰 랠리에선 일부 차익실현 권고. 머스크의 향후 12개월 어려움 경고와 주가 전망은 별개라고 봄. 거시: 인플레이션이 빠르게 완화 중이며 뉴욕 연은 기저인플레 지표도 하락 방향. 연준이 곧 금리 인상을 멈출 것으로 봄. 부채한도 협상은 정치적 소음으로 치부. 지수: S&P500 선물 PO 지표가 상승 돌파 조짐, 다우 장기 사이클은 강세, 중기 사이클은 7월 중순까지 상승 후 9월까지 조정 가능성. 개별 종목: 아메리칸익스프레스는 지역은행 사태 이후 부진하나 펀더멘털은 양호하다는 의견. 나이키는 최근 하락했으나 중국 중산층 소비 부진 우려로 115~113달러 조정 전 매수 비추천. 바이킹테라퓨틱스 등 바이오 종목 언급.
다듬은 글
we're always searching for potential winners especially in moments like this where you might get a terrific buying opportunity the next time we hear about discouraging news about the debt ceiling negotiations something that's almost a given since they love pointless drama down there in Washington don't they I still call that a high quality problem given that there were no negotiations to speak up just a couple of days ago right now we're in a tricky moment because if you want to know where the Market's headed you need to be able to game Washington in a high pressure situate situation that's it's inherently unpredictable right at the same time you've also got a game in the Federal Reserve well they really pause the rate hikes at next month's meeting or will they insist on lowering the boom on us again we heard from several fed heads in the last 24 hours so at times like these you know why I like to do I take a step back because it's hard for anybody to make an objective assessment of political issues we all have our biases with this stuff so it's tougher to analyze and say something nonpartisan like Procter and Gamble scrubs march by the way we own Proctor for the travel trust and it got bruised again today you know what I think sometimes you need to take your own subjective feelings out of the equation by Consulting the technicians and the technicals and that's why tonight we're going up the charts with the help of Larry Williams he's the legendary technician and Market historian who's been the top expert in the space since before I could drive Larry's written over a dozen books and created a host of his own proprietary technical indicators which you can find on his website ireely trade.com you ought to go it's fantastic plus he's only getting better with age as his recent track records incredible this is the guy who called the covet bottom in the spring of 2020 when Wall Street was ready to jump out of the windows okay uh hey he called the big January rally the beginning of this year he realized the NASDAQ was running and nailed the Netflix move which by the way value 31 points today so what is Williams who's so red hot see right now well you know what he is actually feeling quite bullish about the broader Market but before that let's talk about one stock that he likes in particular and that David Faber will certainly want to listen to yes take a look at the weekly chart of none other than Tesla at Tuesday's annual meeting Elon Musk warn that the next 12 months would be challenging for Tesla thanks to worldwide economic weakness Williams doesn't dispute that the next year might be difficult for the company but it feels a lot more constructive about Tesla's stock remember they are two different things at times I don't think Larry would argue with musk about electric vehicles or rocket science stocks are another issue though and right now he thinks Tesla's got an awful lot going for it now let's go to these charts Williams is always looking at the past action in any given stock to identify cycles that seem to repeat themselves over and over again which they do and teslie sees both a long-term cycle and an intermediate term cycle you can see the longer term cycle that's the one in blue this is a 42 month cycle Tesla's major highs and lows have all pretty much stuck to this pattern ever since the stock began trading why does it matter okay because right now the long-term Cycles looking pretty darn good it bottom near the end of last year which is when the stock stopped going are right and history is any guide this pattern says Tesla can keep rallying through the second quarter of next year rather than worrying about the next 12 months Williams recommends buying the dips although you might want to lighten up on your position into any of the big rallies but look at this you see where this is headed Williams was so right on Netflix this is the same kind of feel that I got about that call they made on Netflix now speaking of big rallies he says Tesla's two for one right now right here because there's another cycle that matters the intermediate term cycle and that's in red according to Williams when Tesla gets to this phase in the cycle historically it's rallied 80 percent of the time from right about now through early September 80 percent I will take that I can't tell you why these Cycles seem to repeat themselves I can't explain why they often lead to successful trades I can only point you to Larry's amazing data because you can't argue with that kind of track record and you can't argue with his data now check out this weekly chart of Tesla with Williams proprietary indicator at the bottom that measures hedge fund and mutual fund buying this is the other reason he's feeling positive in Tesla these money managers have an excellent track record of buying the stock right before rallies in other words they're not contrary they're actually correct over the last four weeks they have been buying Tesla stock aggressively that suggests the Stock's getting ready for a big move higher how about the daily chart with the same institutional money manager indicator at the bottom you can see that even when Tesla's price has declined the blue line which shows professional accumulation didn't go down nice money manager stuck with this one on weakness and they tend to buy it right before strength plus it doesn't hurt that William says the seasonal pattern is on Tesla's side right now too okay we've now exhausted all the great news about Tesla you can have this week haven't we well I think this is the best of all if you're a stock guy but let's see about the broader stock market right now Williams is feeling darn good about the Sox for one simple reason for over a year inflation's been our number one worry and right now inflation despite what you hear despite what you see is actually Vanishing almost as quickly as it came here's a really important indicator nobody talks about this is the New York feds underlying inflation gauge which is very much headed in the right direction when you say this tells Williams that the FED will soon back off on its rate hikes maybe it takes one more minute but it likely won't be more than that now I know this is contrary to a lot of the tough chatter you heard in the last 24 hours from various fed leaders which you know what I'm not going with them I'm going with Williams next take a gander at the weekly chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average with Larry's long-term stock market cycle shown here in red right now the long-term cycle is pretty darn bullish we see that William says this cycle has been a reliable predictor of stock prices for over a century and he doesn't think he's going to fail us this time at the same time the intermediate term cycle in blue suggests we could have a nice run at least through mid-july how about that another one you'll take right although it also breaks a pullback from mid-july through September but you know what in the interim you'll be in Clover finally check out the daily chart of the S P 500 futures in black with a proprietary metric from Williams in blue we often use the advanced decline line to measure the strength of a given move this indicator does something similar Williams likes to measure accumulation and Futures contracts by combining volume open interest and price accumulation into this one line called the Williams poiv which gives you a better read on the strength of the market whenever the poiv is trending lower then it breaks out above its trend line after that period that tends to set up for a very nice rally right there that's what he's talking about this moment okay that's exactly what happened in the poiv not that long ago still one more reason to expect a rally here bottom line despite all the handwriting about this moment the charts as interpreted by the legendary Larry Williams suggests that the broader markets headed higher and in particular by the way Tesla stock could have a really really nice run Zach and Minnesota Zach explain yourself Kramer you got me all fired up over American Express I thought it was supposed to be best in class in car companies but why is he underperforming his peers so badly since the Regional Bank Fiasco I keep hearing the typical exp card holder is insulated from high inflation and recession I even heard white collar workers that are being laid off by the thousands of receiving service packages this should translate into continued spending in a lower rate of delinquencies but if I know all this then Wall Street certainly does so is this the fair value of the stock or will it go back over 170.
thank you Zach maybe the chart is wrong maybe the stock is not following the fundamentals because the fundamentals are darn good Steve's query is going to deliver if people like Capital One they should love American Express axp memo to Lisa enough the points go to me this month Raymond in New York Raymond hey Jim how you doing hopefully we're doing what's going on with you Raymond uh just uh giving you a call to talk about the recent price decline of the Nike stock that was around 128 a share right yeah and in the last few weeks it's dropped to 117.
today it's up about 1.62 at 118.87 but going nowhere fast even though their last quarter results were good so I understand that Nike's whale activity is within a strike price range of about 80 bucks 135 dollars in the last 30 days all right so what do they know that we don't know okay everybody's worried about the China middle class stopping it's buying there is some truth to that China has not had strong middle class buying ever since the end of the pandemic I think it's because they're going to catch up but the Alibaba numbers today weren't that good my suggestion is Nike went up a dollar 89 today do not buy it until he gives back towns of 115 113.
I can't be that bullish after the bobber numbers I saw and some of the middle class numbers that I've been reading out of China the charts is interpreted by Larry Williams suggests the Border Market is indeed ready to roll Tesla could be one of the leaders in the upside much more might ahead you called in you stopped me on Viking Therapeutics so could this be a stock that could ride the wave that Larry Williams just pointed out it's exciting on turning my homework on the biotechnic then I'm always telling you about the channel so why is it more important than ever to pay attention to this corner of retail that is very dreaded kind of like a Riptide I'm revealing a few names that I think could capitalize in this unique moment and of course all your calls rapid fire tonight's edition of the lightning round so stay with clever thank you
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