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this time we talked uh in the first segment about the stock market um and i think we know where we got to go next we got to talk about what's happening in crypto bitcoin continues its rally uh on a market cap basis we have seen bitcoin at a record high on a price per coin basis where um within spitting distance of the record what have you seen in the space and um i guess the natural follow-on is how much institutional interest do you guys continue to get uh in your work and i think a lot of people view that as a proxy for sort of where bitcoin is headed um yeah it's an interesting year because number one um you know we know that bitcoin as a digital asset or internet money it's it's really thrives off network value so the more people who adopt it the more parabolically the price rises we've seen a pretty substantial increase in engagement this year and i've been pretty surprised because it is institutional um we always thought us would be sort of the most important market to watch for adoption and it's really taking off here uh fortunately we are one of the few firms that sort of sits between institutions and digital assets so we've seen a lot of interest and a lot of engagement the happening happened this year which of course historically is good for price because you're reducing supply but history also says that the year that follows the happenings is much more important so i think if if bitcoin was the best performing asset last year 2019 it's killing it this year it's just crushing all other hedges and asset classes um this year 2020 but in 2021 i think bitcoin could be the year of the fireworks so if people are interested they really should realize that the best is probably yet to come tom i want to get your take on some of the other crypto assets ethereum ethereum 2.0 coming down the pike here are you interested in this or any other tokens or cryptocurrencies for that matter uh i mean yes we are in fact you know uh our senior digital lead david greiter does a lot of work on specific projects and he's you know he's actually probably good enough to do code audits um and we i think that you know people have to keep mine bitcoin is really the cornerstone of digital assets and digital money and sort of the the importance of of why people need to have exposure but there's going to be so many other pathways to to realize asset appreciation so i think ethereum has a proven community there's a lot of other projects out there i don't want to sort of pick favorites here because david has done a lot of work and and if you're interested you should check out his work but yes where in general people should look beyond bitcoin as well tom i do want to quickly before we let you go uh back onto equity markets that 4.5 trillion you mentioned that is in fact on the sidelines where do you think that goes in terms of sectors and what's a trigger point for a good bit of that money coming back into the market within the next few months um well i think that i think it's going to be really interesting because uh let's say people are really interested in thematic and etfs and machines and algorithmic systems and systematic trading you know also will enter via etfs so number one as the money does move up the sidelines plus as the vix falls we know that value at risk or institutional leverage will rise i think the indexes will rise broadly so that means growth stocks will keep up with the s p but when people look for for uh alpha or opportunities to beat the market it's really going to come through small cap and cyclical stocks which you know we call epicenter they've already revealed their out performance since the s ps like for two weeks done nothing but these have been on fire that's really big signal as we go into the santa claus rally because people who want to outperform that seven percent aren't going to suddenly dump the cyclicals they're gonna buy this tiny sliver of the market and i think small caps similarly could really be quite dramatic in their upside move you know tom we've been talking about um kind of nearer term or more intermediate term type moves to the market but i remember i think it might have been 2015 and you correct me if it was more recent than that but you know you had a no doubt talking about maybe basically just like millennials maturing and the generational cycle that was likely ahead for the market a multi-decade kind of cycle that had you excited um has your view changed on that at all based on what we've seen here or is these kinds of hiccups expected along those very long positive you know inflection points for markets uh yeah miles that's um that's something that we don't write often enough about but i think demographics have explained markets better than anything so we we like to really show our clients that for the last hundred years you could have called every market top by just following generations of people age 30 to 50.
and the millennials are such a huge cohort and they're about to inherit 68 trillion dollars over the next 20 years so they'll become the richest generation ever in the history of the us that that is historically tied to incredibly powerful bull markets and yeah so we are probably just in the first inning of a bull market that could last till 2038 i know this sounds crazy but again it's if history's a guy the s p will probably peak around 15 000.
so i i think for people who think uh nothing there's no upside left they're not really students of history and i know i'm i'm not going to try to sound crazy i'm just going to encourage you to look at some of our work uh history is not only been a good guide it's almost been textbook even 2020 is actually acting pretty textbook so you know again don't write me off as a crazy loon i would just encourage you to look at some of the work we've done on that
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