저자: MikeGleason—드러켄밀러인용포함,드러켄밀러본인출연아님 · 외국인
요약 보기
2020년 9월 시장 정리 방송으로, 인플레이션 우려 속에서 귀금속(금·은)의 중장기 보유 가치를 강조하는 결론이다. 금 가격은 주간 1.1% 상승해 온스당 약 1956달러이며, 최근 한 달간 1900달러 지지선 위에서 횡보했고 2000달러 돌파 시도가 실패했다. 8월 11일 전후로 방향성 돌파가 나올 가능성을 언급했다. 은은 온스당 약 27달러(주간 0.9% 상승), 백금은 950달러(주간 3.6% 상승), 팔라듐은 2403달러(주간 1.9% 상승)다. 달러지수는 8월 이후 바닥을 다지는 중이라고 설명했다. 달러 가치 하락 전망과 관련해 연준·ECB 모두 통화를 약화시키려 하며, 실물자산 대비 두 통화 모두 가치가 떨어질 수 있다는 견해다. 드러켄밀러 인용: 연준과 재무부의 경계가 허물어지는 상황을 우려하며, 인플레이션이 연 5% 혹은 10%까지 오를 수 있다고 봤다. 대규모 재정적자와 연준의 추가 재정 지원 압박을 근거로 들었다. 인플레이션 환경에서는 채권·확정급여형 연금·연금보험 같은 전통적 보수 자산이 가장 불리하고, 실물 금·은이 최고 품질의 피난처가 된다고 주장했다. 다만 주식·채권이 더 나은 가치를 보일 때도 있으므로 분산투자가 필요하다는 입장이다. 지정학적 리스크(이란·러시아·중국)와 대선 이후 재정적자 확대 가능성도 언급하며, 인플레이션 초기 단계에서 귀금속 비중을 충분히 가져가라고 권고했다. 주식·금리·환율 등에 대한 1~3개월 단기 방향 예측은 명시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
welcome to this week's money metals podcast helping gold and silver investors during these turbulent times now here's this week's market wrap with commentary and analysis from the low-cost precious metals dealer voted best in the u.s money metals exchange welcome to this week's market wrap podcast i'm mike gleason as volatility shook wall street again this week gold and silver markets advance strongly into thursday morning trading before encountering some mild selling as of this friday morning recording gold shows a weekly gain of 1.1 percent to bring spot prices to 1956 dollars an ounce over the past month gold has traded in a range with support around 1900 bulls have made a couple unsuccessful attempts to retake and hold above the 2 000 level following the sharp plunge below it on august 11th we will likely see a more decisive move in the gold market one way or the other in the days ahead turning to silver prices currently come in at 27 an ounce after gaining 0.9 percent this week platinum is showing relative strength up 3.6 percent for the week to trade at 950.
its sister metal palladium is looking strong here today and now shows a 1.9 weekly gain to check in at 2 403 dollars per ounce the near-term outlook for precious metals markets may be determined by where the u.s dollar index heads next it has been basing out since august after trending lower earlier in the summer the federal reserve note appreciated modestly against foreign currencies ahead of the european central bank's policy meeting on thursday the ecb made no changes to interest rates leaving its deposit rate in negative territory at negative 0.5 percent like the u.s federal reserve the ecb is trying to stimulate inflation which central bank will be most successful at depreciating their currency is a matter of speculation for forex traders both currencies stand to lose value over time when measured against real assets including precious metals billionaire hedge fund manager stanley druckenmiller is worried that the u.s dollar will lose purchasing power much more rapidly than the 2 percent average the fed is currently telegraphing druckenmiller sounded off this week and said he sees inflation rates likely rising to 5 percent or perhaps even 10 percent i think the merging of the fed and the treasury which is effectively what's happening during prohibit sets the precedent that while we've never seen since the fed got their independence and uh it's obviously creating a massive massive raging mania and financial assets for the first time in a long long time i'm actually worried about inflation because we actually have the chairman of the federal reserve with a three and a half trillion dollar deficit lobbying congress to do more spending and guaranteeing those of us on wall street that he'll underwrite it even though the stock market has been pumped up with fed stimulus the government's inflation gauges haven't been reflected much in the way of broad price increases in recent years an upsurge would catch most investors by surprise the latest consumer price index report came out today and shows price inflation beginning to turn around after a short-lived deflation scare this spring at one point crude oil prices actually fell below zero to assign a negative price per barrel oil copper and precious metals prices have since risen dramatically off their lows for the year however commodity markets took a bit of a hit this week as shares on wall street slid and the u.s dollar strengthened against foreign currencies in an environment of rising inflation investors should expect hard assets to begin to decouple from stocks and other paper assets that are priced for low inflation and ultra low interest rates some sectors of the economy may benefit from inflation others that are more discretionary and are unable to pass on rising costs to struggling consumers will suffer rising inflation would be a disaster for holders of bonds defined benefit pensions and annuities what are conventionally thought of as the most conservative investments would have the worst prospects for staying ahead of inflation assets that the financial industry urges investors to avoid as being too risky would be among the only safe havens in the events of double-digit inflation in such an environment the highest quality assets to hold would be physical gold and silver at some point they may become too difficult or too expensive to obtain at some point inflation fears may peak and subside at some point stocks or bonds may represent better value every asset class has its time to shine prudence dictates being well diversified at all times given the unpredictable nature of markets nobody knows when the next pandemic or terrorist attack will hit it's been 19 years now since september 11 2001.
thankfully nothing on that scale has occurred since then but geopolitical risks are on the rise with iran russia china and other adversaries nobody knows what the upcoming election will bring except that whoever wins will inherit a record budget deficit whoever wins will depend on the fed to keep suppressing rates buying bonds and expanding the money supply if investors like stan druckenmiller are right then either the trump or biden-harris administration will have a serious inflation problem on its hands the early stage of a rising inflation trend is a crucial time in particular to make sure your investment portfolio includes an ample allocation to precious metals well that will do it for this week be sure to check back next friday for our next weekly market wrap podcast until then this has been mike gleason with money metals exchange thanks for listening and have a great weekend everybody thank you for joining us for this week's money medals podcast be sure to come back next week and don't forget to subscribe to our podcast through itunes for answers to all of your questions or to discreetly and securely buy or sell gold or silver coins bars and rounds call 1-800-800-1865 or visit www.moneymetals.com our knowledgeable and no pressure specialists are standing by between 7 a.m and 5 30 p.m mountain time monday through friday or you can lock in your order online 24 hours a day seven days a week again visit us at www.moneymetals.com or call 1-800-800-1865
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