저자: DougFlynn,CFP · 외국인
요약 보기
중동 전쟁 종결 기대감으로 시장이 반등 중이며 유가가 하락했으나 아직 실물(휘발유 가격)에는 반영되지 않았다. Jamie Dimon은 시장보다 전쟁의 성공적 종결이 중요하다고 발언. SpaceX가 기업가치 약 1.75조 달러로 IPO 비공개 신청, 미국 6위 기업 규모가 될 것으로 전망. 수익 대부분은 Starlink에서 발생하며 Costco식 손실 유도 구조로 보고 있음. 다만 이 정도 규모에서 고성장 유지는 어렵다고 봄.
다듬은 글
right since today is the 1st of April, but that was the message delivered by the International Energy Agency. Let's take it to Doug Flynn, Flynn Zito Capital Management. So we get all these headlines like there was another one that flyers will be looking at JetBlue's raising its check baggage fees, yes, all that.
So we get headlines like that, but you know, the president can speak tonight and and who knows though the conversation might be different because clearly the market bet the the the last few days is that it's going to be different. Definitely the markets trading on the hope. It's not the facts yet, but on the hope that Trump's willingness to end the war soon is is real and and Iran wants an off-ramp here.
So those two things let the market rally as it has the last couple of days and and oil prices came down a little bit. That hasn't hit the gas prices yet, but you can see it start in in the stock market on the hope that this is actually going to turn into something real. I did find it interesting, I guess is the right word, that Jamie Dimon, you know, with all this shaking up of the markets went on Fox, which was probably intentional, and had a different message, right?
Talking about finishing the job. But here's Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan. We should all hope nothing goes wrong. We should all hope that these bad people are you know, that we win this thing and clean up the streets and that Iran is no longer a threat to everybody and uh uh but they're you know, the the markets will be concerned until it's over.
Uh you but I think it's very important. It's much more important that this be successfully completed than what the market does. Yeah, and that's the headline. It's much more successful, more important to be successful than what the market does short-term. So I I you know, it's just interesting given who Jamie Dimon is.
Yeah, I mean, he he's speaking to the fact that thing the market and even oil prices they're bouncing on the headlines. And so what you really want is a long-term solution. And if that long-term solution is in in the in the long run better than what we had before, then peace and price prosperity across for everyone is really going to be beneficial to to the entire world.
So, so you may end up in a much better place even though it's always ugly going through it. I think that's what he's speaking to is you know, just win the thing, of course is how he's saying it. Um, but the day-to-day is what we're living through. You know, uh, we have time for one other business story today and I'm going to make it about space because that's the place we're optimistic about.
We're getting ready for this Artemis launch, which by the way has no, today at least, private kind of component to it, right? It's all NASA. But we know that private companies are heavily involved in space and that brings me to the headlines. SpaceX confidentially filing for an IPO ahead of other rivals.
This could be the biggest IPO of all time for Elon Musk's uh, company. So, what about, you know, on a day like this, a company like that? I mean, this has been rumored forever and this would be huge. Yeah, I love how it's confidential, but somehow it sneaks out there into the Yeah, and no, look, this is rumored to be uh, come out at 1.75 trillion dollars of of a value of a company.
And if that is the value that does come out at it, will instantly come out as the sixth largest company in the United States just behind Amazon. That's why it's such a big deal. Uh, and you have to think about this is just, you know, rockets and satellites and AI, oh my, all together in one place. And and it is a huge thing and I think the market really hasn't had anything like this this positive with that kind of an outlook.
So, I think it will be a a big plus overall to to that. Now, what the stock does from there is always the issue cuz when you have these multi-trillion-dollar companies, it is hard for them to grow at any major high percentage pace like the pace that it grew at while it was private to get to this reported 1.75 trillion dollars.
in that high, yeah, where do you go from there? But years ago they said that about Google, by the way. But all that IPO price is too high. What it was an 80, whatever it was. It's not not so much. Um, but are you excited about this business? Uh, I know it's not just space, really. it's SpaceX, but it's a big part of it.
Yeah, the Starlink is really the the the the key. That's where they make all the money from. But like many companies, it makes it in one place and it's a loss leader in something else and and you know, even if talking about gas prices and things like that just to shift it back to there, you know, you take a company like like Costco which their gas is cheaper than everyone else, they use it as a loss leader to run the rest of the business and drive their membership revenue.
So many companies do this. So right now Starlink is doing that for for SpaceX. The other pieces, I don't know whether or not you know, whether people do travel in space ultimately and pay, then maybe that will be a a plus to that company. But right now it's all on Starlink. Starlink, Starlink, yeah, that's a that's a huge part of SpaceX. Doug Flynn, thank you as always, we appreciate it. Quick break time.
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