저자: MichaelBurry—인터뷰진행자Irky측은사회자로제외 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 마이클 버리의 '시장 대폭락' 예측은 수년째 빗나갔고, 진행자는 타이밍 예측을 믿지 말고 상황별 대응 계획을 가진 장기 투자가 낫다고 주장한다. 버리의 핵심 주장: 패시브(인덱스) 투자 자금이 수조 달러에 달해, 대규모 매도 시 패시브 투자자가 액티브로 전환해 ETF를 청산하고 구성 종목이 매도되면서 대폭락이 올 수 있다고 주장. 과거 예측 이력: 2019년 9월 CNBC에서 패시브 투자로 인한 폭락을 예측했으나, 인터뷰 시점(2022년 9월)까지 S&P500은 그 시점보다 약 24% 상승. 트위터에서 매년 폭락을 예고하다 기한이 지나면 트윗을 삭제했다는 비판 제기. 과거 실적 비판: 버리가 명성을 얻은 2008년 위기 예측도 실제로는 약 2년 일렀으며, 당시 Scion Capital 투자자들이 환매를 원하자 출금을 잠갔고 그 방식에 반발해 이탈한 투자자도 있었다고 언급. 진행자 측 근거: 2009년 S&P 저점 이후 +450% 이상 상승분을 놓친 투자자가 많다고 지적. 시장은 길게 보면 항상 폭락하지만 '언제'를 맞추는 것이 천재성의 기준인데 버리는 타이밍에서 번번이 틀렸다고 평가. 진행자 전망/조언: 버리는 공매도 포지션을 가진 상태에서 공포를 조장하는 것(talking his book)이라고 주장. 본인은 전액 투자나 전액 현금화를 하지 않으며, 상승·하락 시 각각 할 행동을 미리 정해두고, 1930년대 대폭락 같은 사례도 5~10년 내 회복됐으니 장기 보유가 낫다고 조언. 언급 종목/자산: 개별 종목 언급 없음. S&P500 및 패시브 인덱스 펀드(ETF)가 주요 대상이며, 방향은 버리 측 하락 예측(단기 폭락), 진행자는 장기 중립~상승 관점. 출연자 정리: 버리 — 폭락 예측 발언 다수(방향 하락, 기간 미특정); 진행자 — 예측 없이 장기 보유 관점.
다듬은 글
Today, we have a special guest here on Get Irked - we have legendary hedge fund investor Michael Burry! You might know Michael Burry from his predictions of the housing crisis crash in 2008. The eventual crash and prediction were so popular that there was a movie, "The Big Short," that was made featuring Michael Burry as played by actor Christian Bale.
Michael Burry, thanks for joining us today! "Stocks go splat, market go boom!" Okay, Michael, everyone's probably heard about your predictions that the stock market is going to have an epic crash soon, but why is that? "Index funds bad!" But, aren't index funds just buying the individual stocks that make up the index.
Like if you're talking about the S&P 500 index funds, they're just tracking the S&P 500, right? What makes them so bad? "Passive investing... bad. Active investing... good. Passive bad. Active good." Okay, Michael, you might have a bit of a point there. There are trillions of dollars that are currently invested in these index funds which is referred to as "passive investing." The concern is that if there's a big market-wide sell-off that all these passive investors will turn into active investors and sell off all these ETFs which will liquidate the individual stocks the ETFs hold and potentially cause a very epic crash.
However, Michael, you've been predicting this crash for years now. In fact, here's an article I found from CNBC in September of 2019 where you were predicting that the market was going to crash because of this passive investing back then, and it's now been more than two years. Even at 2022's lows, the S&P 500 was up +24% from where you said the market was going to crash because of this passive investing.
What do you say to people who point out that you were wrong? "Me not wrong, me early. Me Cassandra. me see future. No one listen to me. Me Cassandra. Me see future." That might be true - the crash might still be happening. However, why is it whenever the Bulls are wrong, they're wrong, but whenever the Bears are wrong, they're early?
"Bulls stupid. Me smart. Me Cassandra. Me see future." Okay, but isn't it true that the only substantial market crash that you've ever predicted was the one that happened in 2008, and, even then, you were two years early? In fact you, had to lock down the ability for the investors in your firm, Scion Capital, to be able to withdraw funds because they wanted to escape your craziness.
And, aren't there a lot of investors who actually made money from your investments in 2008 who still left your firm because they couldn't agree with the way that you did it? "Me famous. Me Batman. Mmm... Batman. Me Dark Knight. Me Batman. Me famous." You do realize you're not Christian Bale, right? He only played you in the movie.
"Me Batman. Me Mad Eye Moody. Me got crazy eye. Look at me crazy eye!" Alright, so, your firm Scion Capital continues to make outstanding returns on the market. Why is it so important for you to go on television and make these big stock predictions instead of just being good at what you're good at - being a really good hedge fund investor?
"Me like scaring people with me crazy eye. Crazy eye sees all. Crazy eye sees Harry Potter! Me mad Eye Moody! ARGH!" Alright, let's pull it back in, Michael. I do appreciate you having the time to take this interview with me, but I wanted to ask you a question about your Twitter account. Your Twitter account, which is @michaeljburry, also has the nickname "Cassandra B.C.," and that's based on the character from Greek mythology who was cursed with the ability to see the future but no one would believe any of her prophecies.
However, the difference between you and her, Michael, is that she was actually right - her prophecies came true. You've been predicting this crash year-over-year on Twitter, and every time it doesn't come true in the time frame that you say, you just go back and delete all of your tweets so nobody can develop a record of how wrong you are.
"Me not wrong, me early! Me Cassandra! Me see future!" Okay, we get that, but most people need to invest in order to be able to retire. What do you say to the people who listened to your warnings, didn't get into the market, and have now missed out on more than +450% in returns since the S&P bottomed in 2009?
"Me say 'shut up!' Me not wrong, me early! Me Mad Eye Moody! Crazy eye! Crazy eye will get you, Irky! Crazy eye will get yooooouuuuu!" I'm not saying that Michael Burry isn't going to be right about his prediction. The problem is predicting that the market is going to crash or even how it's going to crash doesn't make you a genius.
You're a genius when you predict WHEN the market is going to crash. The market always crashes epically when you give it a long enough time period - there was 2020, there was 2008, 2001, 1987 - the market always crashes. However, if you're like me and you're a long-term investor who absolutely needs to grow his wealth in order to be able to retire, you're not going to be able to listen to someone Like Burry if they're wrong.
The moral is this: no one, not even Michael Burry and famous investors like him, can time the markets accurately. In fact, his consistently being wrong - I mean "early" - just goes to prove how you can't time the markets. Investors like Michael Burry will get right once in a while and suddenly the stock market will look at them as if they're geniuses.
And, in cases like Michael Burry, he might even start to drink his own Kool-Aid and believe that he can see the future. However, the reason he gets on CNBC is to scare everyone out of the markets; he's short the markets! He's just talking his book. So, when he comes out and tells you there's going to be a 90% crash, it's because he wants that.
I'm never all-in or all-out of the markets. What I do, instead, is I have a plan for what I'm going to do if the market goes up tomorrow and what I'm going to do if the market goes down tomorrow. History has taught us that even in the most epic of crashes, in the next five to ten years after something as dramatic as the stock market crashed in the 1930s, it will come back.
A long-term investor is better-served to hang on during a crash and throughout the crash rather than try to time it. Always stay in the markets, always have money on the sidelines, and always have a plan - what are you going to do if the market goes up tomorrow, and what are you going to do the market goes down tomorrow?
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