"Inflation is about to breakout" by Peter Schiff, Kevin O'Leary, Thomas Thornton, and Jeff Snider

요약 보기

2022년 8월 기준 인플레이션은 쉽게 잡히지 않으며 경기침체와 함께 오히려 악화될 수 있다는 비관적 거시 전망. 금리 인상만으로는 인플레이션을 잡기 어렵다는 주장: 연준 기준금리는 여전히 실질 마이너스 수준이고 중립금리에도 못 미친다. 경기침체가 와서 인플레를 죽일 것이라는 시장 기대는 틀렸다는 입장. 경기 지표: 완전고용(실업률 3~3.4%)에도 2분기 GDP가 역성장하는 이례적 상황. 연준이 긴축을 지속하면 패닉 대응 전 금리는 5~6%까지 갈 수 있다고 봄. 연준이 금리를 인하하기 전 주가·실업률·기업이익이 더 크게 무너져야 한다는 견해. 금리 인하 기대(2023년 인하 확률 언급)는 장기 기업이익 둔화가 해소되지 않으면 실패할 수 있다고 경고. 기술 혁신이 구원하지 못할 것이라는 시각. 유동성 지표: 레포·담보시장 금리 하락은 금융 시스템 문제의 신호로 해석. 단기금리 하락 역시 위험 신호. 유럽 자산: 푸틴, 에너지 위기, 독일 탈원전 등 유럽 리스크를 지적하면서도 유럽 대형주(네슬레, 로슈 등)를 현지통화 기준 대폭 할인 가격에 매수 중이며 포트폴리오 내 비중을 20%로 확대했다고 밝힘. 좀비기업 구조조정: 금리 상승기에 적자 기업들이 인력 감축을 피하기 어렵고, 로빈후드 등에서 일자리 감소가 예상됨. 실업수당·경기부양책이 오히려 인플레를 가속하는 스태그플레이션성 경기침체가 올 것이며 최종적으로는 인플레이션성 공황(depression)으로 이어질 수 있다는 경고. 연준 피벗은 S&P500 4,000~4,200 수준에서 시장이 충분히 폭락하고 실업이 튀어야 나올 것이라는 전망. 대부분의 언급은 과거·현재 상황 설명이며 자산별 명시적 가격 방향 예측은 제한적이다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. the fed puts the economy in recession and then it's the recession that kills inflation so either way the markets think inflation is going away but the markets are wrong on both fronts these rate hikes are not going to be sufficient to get rid of inflation we still have negative interest rates and the fed isn't even going to come close to getting rates to neutral let alone positive real rates that would be required to actually fight inflation and at some point the economy is going to be so weak that fomc members are not going to be able to pretend that it's strong they're not going to be able to shrug off all the evidence of a severe recession and we are going to get the pivot the markets expect now the fed to continue hiking rates even though investors recognize that the economy already is in recession or believe that it soon will be in recession so all the talk of the pal pivot is suddenly taking a back seat and the reason is you had a lot of fomc members throwing cold water on the idea that the fed is about to start pivoting the fed's doing its job it's it's tremendous there's there's too much money out there and i'm thinking there's they just failed how can there be too much money markets are chaotic and yes we had that spring of 2008 period where it seemed like spring had sprung and everything looked fine and the ecb it wasn't just the the feds started to become constructively optimistic the ecb was overly optimistic in fact they were convinced inflation was about to break out so they were allowing themselves to be fooled and lulled into this false sense of got confidence because they could not possibly think or could not possibly accept the possible the fact that we the entire global system hadn't just gone way out of tolerance and just got out of tolerance it went way the hell out of tolerance in a way that we hadn't seen since the ninth or late the early 1930s nobody could conceive of that even though everywhere you looked things were just off and if you look at these things as you said emil look at them in isolation one thing at a time you can rationalize everything away you can say okay federal funds right below target that's you know whatever particularly if this build back better bill uh prints another 400 to 600 billion dollars and flushes it right into the economy that's probably not going to be a good outcome for inflation because it's very inflationary even though it's been it's it's trying to be labeled as an anti-inflation bill anytime you print anytime you print money you get inflation so we'll see what happens that's got to go through the gauntlet in washington that's one factor the other that's really interesting that has a lot of market watchers really scratching their heads right now because it's never happened before you've got a situation of full employment that's like three and 3.4 percent and yet at the same time a second quarter of gdp shrinking that has never happened before so one way to interpret that is to say the productivity of the two plus million new workers that have just been booked into the economy must be very very low or maybe they're not really working eight hours maybe they're working less but there's something not working to the traditional model which is why i think it's giving powell pause because he has been job owning a more dovish fed having just done the 75 basis points even he doesn't know what's happening here so he's data dependent we've never seen this before never never in the history of the economy in 200 plus years has this ever occurred so again another sign that is not fitting with what everybody wants towards this recession fed will probably hit the panic button at five percent and it may even go to six percent and i think that'll be really felt uh in the markets and you know so people are thinking oh well the fed's going to come in and they're going to pivot they're going to cut rates they're already planning you know there's there's probabilities of rate cuts in 2023 and maybe that's going to happen but what if it doesn't work what if the fed's actions don't really do what's happened in the past because you you need that longer term earnings uh slowdown you need to reset earnings a lot a lot lower and you don't have technology that's going to bail you out with with new innovations new companies one of the interesting things about all the fed governors commitment to reducing inflation is they're all committed to bringing the rate back down to two percent now nobody is calling anybody out on the hypocrisy of this because not too long ago when the fed first indicated that it would tolerate inflation above two percent the reason it claimed it was willing to do that was because it now had a new goal of inflation averaging meaning that instead of having a two percent target year over year they now had a two percent average target if you look at short-term rates falling and thinking well that's just that's just the bond market signaling that rates are going to come down because central banks are going to be accommodative and when it's exactly the opposite thing so if you look at these things in isolation you can roll yourself into believing that they mean something that they actually don't and when you see prices of collateral go through the roof that's kind of a message that we're getting to the end of the line here because okay repo and collateral is sort of the backstop of unsecured there really isn't a backstop after repo if you can't if you don't have collateral and you can't borrow in repo markets or derivative markets if we're talking about cross-border exchange then you really don't have money alternatives beyond that certainly not a central bank so short-term rates starting to fall unsecured that's not a good sign short-term rates in collateral starting to fall that's kind of really getting into other problems they've got lots of external issues there that we don't deal with here we go they have the putin factor the energy factor uh how screwed up germany is and shutting down all its alternative power they did that to themselves that's a self-inflicted wound uh the ukraine the grain situation the market knows all these factors but it doesn't give you confidence to stock up on euros and you know for me the way i'm playing it is i'm buying the top 50 european names in their local currencies in swiss francs in euros and british pounds because if you look at a nestle or you you look at american tobacco or roche half their sales in some cases more than half are in the united states and now you get to buy them in their local currency at massive discounts pe discounts and currency discounts so why not take down a little bit of europe and i've increased that position for me specifically to 20 of the operating companies portfolio europe european names mega caps big cash flowers selling at huge discounts everybody hates the european zip code right now i think the fed's gonna they're gonna get cover to continue to hike rates as long as the stock market goes up so if you really want the fed to pivot let the market go down and let unemployment spike and have margins compress and everything else bad happen and then guess what the fed will pivot but they're not going to pivot at 4 200 or even 4 000 on the s p i mean they need to see something blow up or break to make a reactionary move and 23 of its workers are going to be let go now that follows a 9 reduction from i don't know a month or two ago but i've been talking about it all of these money losing zombie companies in the environment of rising interest rates are not going to be able to maintain their payrolls and a lot of job losses are coming for companies like robinhood and in fact eventually it's going to work its way down to real companies because everybody is going to be suffering in this recession and workers are going to lose their jobs across the board and in many cases the job losses are going to compound the inflation problem not only because you have fewer people productively employed but because you're going to have the government trying to stimulate the economy with unemployment benefits and stimulus checks and so we're going to have the same problem on steroids where we have people not working but spending even more money so upward pressure on prices will accelerate as stagflation gets worse again not really stagflation an inflationary recession that will ultimately be described as an inflationary depression you