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let's bring in our halftime headliner i said fun strat's tom lee was going to be with us he is here now uh he of course is a managing partner head of research there so what was your take from pal tom and what does it mean for your outlook for stocks um well powell gave uh tough on inflation talk it's been consistent with the fed stance for all of 2022 um so i don't think it should be a surprise to investors but i think one of the takeaways for me is the fed is going to really respond when inflation is on a trajectory to be under control and that pace is unknown it's something the fed doesn't even want to attempt to forecast and of course because the markets are nervous and don't have visibility they assume it's going to be around for a long time i think this is where people who are constructive on markets should should really focus on the drivers for rising inflation or accelerating inflation have essentially evaporated uh you know housing inventory levels are now at the highest almost approaching to where they were during the great financial crisis durable goods like cars and furniture which became veblen goods for a while you know as the prices rose demand rose they're now turning into no demand even as prices fall so i think you have outright deflation and durables and then even on the subject of wages you know we look at some of these high frequency measures like job openings from indeed.com labs they're down more than forty percent wage growth doesn't have to get down to zero to meet the fed's inflation target they're being pretty explicit it needs to fall about one and a half percentage points in terms of wage growth so if it's running around five three to four percent is consistent with actual overall inflation of two so unless someone thinks inflationary drivers are accelerating i don't think the fed is sitting here wanting to crush asset markets but they do want to remind people they're not going to be easy and again i think the stock market takes its cue from the bond market the 10 years really kind of been pretty stable i don't think it's i think this sell-off is going to end up being bought yeah unless you think and there is at least in small corners at the moment a belief that inflation is going to be more ingrained into the system than some people think for a variety of reasons it's the story that nick timrose of the journal wrote the other day geopolitics protectionism a uh only increasing global demand for commodities wages and because of the job market that don't really go down all that much the demand for housing etc around the globe are you considering that at all or you sound fully dismissive of that view uh i wouldn't say i'm dismissive i think there are all credible points but at the end of the day the alchemy is what is the shakeout in terms of consumer expectations for inflation and the eu surveys already show now for the third consecutive month we'll release it'll be the third final inflation expectations are falling both on the one year and five years so despite everyone's claim that inflation is even getting stronger from a consumer's perspective it's weakening and look at the market-based measures of inflation so if you look at the swaps market the one-year ford's at 2-7 it's pretty much been pinned there since mid-june i don't think that the inflationary sort of outcome of all of these factors is actually accelerating inflation it's i think it's cooling i can't say i know where inflation is going to be in 12 months but i would say that it seems like it's being on the downside versus consensus farmer jim who's sitting next to me jim labenthal said 50 in september 25 after that and 25 after that what are your own expectations because i need to know that in order to discuss your year-end target which is lofty for the s p uh i think between now and your end i think the fed is going to do somewhere between 100 and 125 basis points of tightening that's kind of on track with their explicit targets so it could be 75 in september and then 25 in the two meetings after that that's there's i think a misconception that just because the fed is raising rates markets have to fall it really depends on how much is priced into market expectations already and again i think that's something we've been focusing on if you look at the rates markets it's already priced in the fed being pretty aggressive into year-end and actually even staying pretty tight throughout 2023
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