저자: 미상 · 외국인
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마이클 버리의 비트코인 '데스 스파이럴' 주장을 소개하고 이를 반박하는 자료를 제시. 원인은 담보 연쇄청산(금속 토큰화 담보), 채굴자 스트레스, 전략(Strategy)은 강제매도 위험 낮음으로 설명. 다수 기관은 $40K~$63K 하방 시나리오 제시, 진행자는 크립토 겨울이 13개월 경과해 막바지라는 Matt Hougan 견해와 ETF 유출, 고래 축적 데이터를 근거로 제시. 연준 워시 지명은 완화 기대와 유동성 회복 논리로 해석. 진행자는 과도한 레버리지를 피하고 자본 보존을 우선하며 당장 패닉 매도는 하지 않는다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
Michael Bur, the big short investor who called the 2008 financial crisis, warning of a potential death spiral. The man who predicted the 2008 financial crisis just called Bitcoin a death spiral and it hasn't come at a good time. Fear and greed is at 14. 580,000 trading accounts were liquidated in the last 48 hours.
And Bitcoin is still precariously at $71,000, which is 42% down from its all-time high. So, is Barry right? Has he predicted yet another market crash? Well, the data is saying otherwise, but it's a little more complicated than that. So, let's dive into the latest in the crypto space. Wintermute, crypto's largest market maker, just released their weekly report.
If you don't know who Wintermute is, they literally make the market. They see the order flow, institutional positioning, and they know who's buying and who is actually selling. Their take is that this crash wasn't caused by one thing. They claim three catalysts hit the market at the same time. Let me break this down for you very quickly.
The first, Microsoft missed in its latest earnings report. For a moment, the market panicked that the AI trade cracked. And when AI wobbles, risk appetite everywhere is going to take a hit. Since crypto is a risk asset, it doesn't get a pass. The second is Trump nominated Kevin Walsh as the next Fed chair.
And the market saw this as hawkish and immediately panicked. Bitcoin dropped 17% in 72 hours and silver, well, it crashed 26% in a single day, triggering circuit breakers on the CME. And the third, those silver liquidations. This is where Bur's thesis actually starts. Crypto exchanges have recently begun to allow users to trade tokenized metals using Bitcoin as collateral.
So when silver crashed and Bitcoin dropped at the same time, margin calls everywhere caused a crossasset contagion. Now, Win also said something that I actually think is the most important line in their entire report and I want you to really think about this. We are in a bare market and frankly we have been for some time but we're not here as a result of a structural blowup like the FTX Luna or three arrows capital.
This is macrodriven and without forced bankruptcies or contagion the cycle could resolve faster than previous bears. So this time the infrastructure is fine according to Wintermute. The exchanges still work. It's just no one really wants to buy right now. And look, as much as Wintermute has been in a fair bit of controversy recently, they're going to be the ones to know this.
They see the order flow. They say there are very little incremental buyers at these levels and institutional participation has pulled back. Mind share can return quickly when conditions improve likely in the second half of 2026. That's crypto's biggest market maker telling you this is not 2022. Let's talk about Bur because he didn't just say crash.
He's laid out a very specific thesis with four key parts, and it is worth paying attention to if you hold crypto right now. Part one, the collateral death spiral. Here's how it very briefly works. Crypto exchanges now let you trade tokenized metals, that's gold, silver, and copper, using your Bitcoin, and other crypto assets as collateral.
So, when Bitcoin dropped and metals crashed at the exact same time, every leverage position got margin called on both sides. So when you see silver drop 26% in a single day, triggering circuit breakers on the CME and then hyperlquid silver liquidations actually exceeding Bitcoin liquidations. He does have a bit of a point here.
When Binance allowed the trading of gold, we saw a massive crash in Bitcoin as gold plummeted not long after. This is a genuine cross asset contagion that did not exist in previous cycles. Part two, miners at $50,000. Barry says miners go bankrupt. Now, I couldn't personally verify this. However, we are well below the minor average cost to minor Bitcoin at $94,000.
And the stress is showing. Russia's largest mining company, Bit River, just filed for bankruptcy on February 2nd. Not long after, we saw a huge drop off in Bitcoin's hash rate in late December, which is the worst decline since the China mining ban in 2021. Now, this isn't to scare you, of course. However, in past cycles, the slowdown does signal miners may need to start selling their stock piles to continue operations if the sell-off deepens for a period of time.
Part three is strategy. Now, you'll see a lot of people online saying Sailor is about to be forced to sell his Bitcoin. And but let me be very clear, this is not how it works. CoinDesk confirmed all of Strategy's Bitcoin is unencumbered. None of it's actually pledged as collateral. their convertible bonds are at 0% interest and the first maturities don't hit until 2028.
So what this means is essentially there's no big mechanical trigger that forces them to sell at these levels. The force liquidation narrative is indeed FUD. Now the last and fourth point is Bur says that Bitcoin has no organic use case to stop its descent. Now I'll come back to that in a bit here because I do have some data that may disagree.
All of this being said, Barry is not alone. Generally speaking, a Bitcoin winner is 12 to 18 months long. And these are well understood technical features. So at 76,000 from 125,000, which was the peak, we can get to 40,000 40,000. So if we get to this Rubicon as Steve spoke to, which is basically being called out by Sailor because of his positions, what when does it before selling and liquidations happen to take us to 40,000?
we can get there very quickly or more likely we're going to get there over the next six to eight months. That was John Blank, chief equity strategist at Zach, claiming $40,000 could be hit in six to eight months. His reasoning, crypto winters last 12 to 18 months and four selling and liquidations are going to keep us pushed down.
Stifle, a $500 billion asset management firm, says $38,000. Mike Nova gripes Galaxy Digital says $63,000. The 1 trillion asset manager Alliance Bernstein says $60,000 and Peter Brandt points to the 200week moving average around $58,000. But is this all possible? Well, every major bare market since 2015 has indeed bottomed there.
But there is something to say that most of the guys calling for these levels typically, well, it doesn't happen. That's for the lows and of course the predictions to the highs. It does align though scarily enough with the CVDD and realized price which both relate to the purchasing prices of Bitcoin holders.
Now this channel is a very strong zone which sits between 50 and $56,000 and has exactly time the bottom of every single Bitcoin bare market low. Poly market gives an 82% chance that Bitcoin hit $65,000 this year. This is the full bare case and I'm not defending it, but I believe it's important to know about these levels.
If you're like me and are still a crypto holder, I do though want to show you the other side of the story in just a minute. But first of all, a few quick important updates. Vitalik, the founder of Ethereum, basically told all layer 2, which are projects built to be a faster version of Ethereum, that they need to specialize or die.
As Ethereum is getting faster over the years and cheaper with its copious upgrades, Vitalik argues that well, people will just opt to use Ethereum directly instead of the layer 2 as this happens. So layer 2s need to either be extremely fast or just do something unique and different which is kind of not great for the layer 2 tokens right now.
Though while everyone panics about crypto prices on Finance held their yearly summit in New York with Black Rockck, JP Morgan, Fidelity, Goldman Sachs and 200 companies. I'm also thrilled to announce for the first time that starting today global markets tokens are now fully supported in MetaMask, the most widely used non-custodial wallet.
further improving accessibility to global markets assets for millions of users. Why does this matter? Because Barry said no organic use case for Bitcoin. Now, while this isn't Bitcoin directly, I'm sure as crypto and trad come together in real world assets, there's likely going to be some further use cases with real world assets and Bitcoin.
I personally think real world assets is going to form into the biggest crypto narrative by far as TVL and active users are also skyrocketing right now. All right, time for the data. So, what I took out of this is that crypto retail, the bulk of OG crypto, entered a full-blown winter in January 2025, and it was papered over in Bitcoin and Ethereum by $75 billion of net inflows into corporations and ETFs.
So, institutions were still in this summer haze, but cryp the rest of crypto was in this dark, deep winter. And the reason that matters is the average winter lasts about 13 months. If it started in October, when many people think it started, when Bitcoin peaked, we're in it until November. If it started in January 2025, we're getting to the end of it and we're almost crawling our way out.
That's my thesis. I think it's probably true. I don't know that we're at the very bottom yet, but I think we're closer to the end than the beginning. That was Matt Hugan, CIO at Bitwise, saying the crypto winter started in January 2025, not last month, January 2025. The inter exchange flow pulse measures the flow of spot into futures trading, which does show a very similar delever market since January 2025.
What this means is we've basically seen less euphoric trading activity for a whole year, which is something we really only see in bare markets. And since previous crypto winters last around 13 months, if the winter technically started, according to Hugan in January 2025, well, we're about 13 months in right now.
Hugan also did say we're closer to the end than the beginning of this bare market. Alliance Bernstein even agrees, putting the bottom at $60,000 and saying a possible reversal in the first half of 2026 is on the cards. Now, check this out. Into the cryptoverse tracks a metric called Bitcoin supply and profit versus loss.
It measures how many coins are above water versus underwater. Right now, 56% of holders are in profit and 44% are in a loss. Those two numbers are converging. And here's why that matters. Every single time these two lines have converged, it marks the cycle bottom. Likewise, the Bitcoin fair value chart shows that price is extremely undervalued on par actually with 2012, 2015, and the 2020 bare market lows.
Now, the ETF picture, and I want to be honest with you, February 2nd, $560 million in net inflows. Now, that sounds great, right? But then, uh, well, February 3rd rolled around and $270 million in outflows. Then February 4th, we saw $550 million in outflows. So, ETF investors are selling. And I want to make one thing very clear for all those that think Black Rockck or Fidelity or any other ETF issuer are selling.
No, this is the investors, not the actual issuers themselves. So, while ETF holders sold and about 580,000 retail traders were liquidated, CryptoQuant data shows that Wales added around 152,000 Bitcoin to their balance in 30 days. Kathy Woods Arc Invest bought $72 million in crypto stocks during the crash.
And of course, as we know, Michael Celler did buy as well. Robert Kiyosaki tweeted, "When Walmart has a sale, the poor sell and run, while the rich rush in and buy." So, let me paint the picture for you. The ETF investors, a lot of them being traditional finance, firsttime crypto holders even, they're nervous and they're selling.
But the biggest wallets on the Bitcoin blockchain, the entities that hold over 1,000 Bitcoin each, they're accumulating at the fastest pace since 2024, while everyone just simply panics. I don't know if I'd call that a death spiral, but I definitely do think it's more of a wealth transfer if I've ever seen one.
Now, here's the twist that no one's really talking about. Everyone's panicked because the headline said Walsh is a hawk. But listen to what Walsh actually said about Bitcoin. I wish I had understood as clearly as he did how transformative Bitcoin and this new technology would be. Uh, Bitcoin doesn't trouble me.
I think of it as an important asset that can help inform policy makers when they're doing things right and wrong. Win confirmed in their report, Walshes recently argued the US is in a high productivity, low inflation equilibrium and campaigned on cutting rates. Some strategists now expect up to 100 basis points of cuts through October.
The market panicked on the headline, but the reality is very different indeed. You've got the financial conditions that are showing us that liquidity is going to pick up. We've got goals showing confirming that and now we're just waiting for crypto to do it. And we've seen NASDAQ following liquidity all the way perfectly.
So, it's I don't think there's anything wrong. If you were to close the gap versus liquidity, Bitcoin should be sort of 140,000. It's an amazing chart of NASDAQ versus global liquidity. I mean, it's one for one. For asset prices, if liquidity is increasing, they all go up. Raw Paul is still optimistic.
His approach is focused around the macro market, not the current crypto prices. His thesis, well, once the Treasury general account draws down and bank regulations ease, that's when the liquidity flip is going to happen. Tom Demar, the legendary market timer and Tom Lee's adviser, has been calling for Bitcoin to hit $77,000 in Ethereum to hit $2400 since mid November.
He was waiting for what he calls time and price alignment. And he's told Tom Lee, "We've reached that time alignment this weekend." As the market deleveraged in October, the fundamentals have still been intact. Ethereum active addresses are going parabolic and there's no dangerous leverage left in the system.
So, here's my honest take. I've shown you both sides of the story. The bare case has real data behind it because there is mining stress. Hash rate is falling. ETF inflows are underwater. Net flows are negative and many will call this an official bare market even if it may be a short one. Wintermute, the guys who have even made the market of course have confirmed this, but it is not a structural blowup.
So, I think my worst case here is if the tariffs escalate and Walsh confirms hawish at his first Senate hearing. I think if Iran situation does deteriorate, it's probably likely we do test that 200E moving average around $58,000. I believe there is a very strong level of support around this region. And my best case is Hooan's right and we're 13 months into a crypto winter that's almost over.
Royal Paul thesis end up coming true. The business cycle continues into expansion and of course we begin to see tariff deals come to life and war be ultra doubbish. So look, overall I'm not panic selling at these levels. No way. But still, I think capital preservation first is very, very important. And that means not overleveraging.
If you thought this market rundown was valuable, then take a second to hit that like button, guys. I sincerely appreciate it. And importantly, take very good care of yourselves out there in these conditions. And I'll see you all tomorrow. Bye-bye.
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