The U.S. economy is much more resilient than people are willing to acknowledge: Mohamed El-Erian

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결론: 미국 경제는 예상보다 훨씬 탄탄하며, 연준이 2% 물가목표를 고집하면 시장 위험이 생길 수 있다. 연준 금리 전망: 최근 설문에서 74%가 금리 동결(pause)을 원했으나, 엘-에리안은 2% 목표를 진지하게 본다면 추가 인상이 필요하다고 주장. 파월 의장도 다수 FOMC 위원이 최소 2회 추가 인상을 예상한다고 언급했다고 함. 금리 인하를 주장하는 응답은 없었다. 서비스 물가 문제: 연준이 늦게 대응해 물가 상승이 서비스 부문에 자리 잡았다. 이를 잡으려면 금리로 제조업 등 경기 민감 부문을 희생해야 하는 상충관계가 있다. 중앙은행 입장: ECB·연준·영란은행은 2% 목표 변경을 논의하지 않으려 함. 엘-에리안은 연준 내부에서도 결국 3~4% 물가를 용인할지 선택해야 할 것이라고 전망. 중국·유럽: 중국 성장은 5% 목표가 낙관적이며, 중국 침체가 지속되면 유럽 경기침체 위험이 커질 수 있다. 미국 경제·증시: 미국 성장률 2%(1분기), 2분기도 견조하게 추적 중. 나스닥 약 30%, S&P500 약 15% 상승. 2년물 금리는 50bp 올랐고 2s10s 장단기 금리차는 -100bp로 역전됐음에도 증시가 강함. 상승은 소수 대형주(애플 등 AI·올웨더 종목)가 주도하다 점차 확산 중. 경기침체 예측은 틀렸다고 평가하며, 정책 실수가 없다면 미국 경기침체는 필요 없다고 봄. 다만 연준이 2% 목표를 강하게 추구하면 이 모든 것이 훼손될 수 있다. 엔화·환율: 달러당 145엔 부근의 엔화 약세는 일본 YCC(수익률곡선통제)로 인한 금리차 때문. 엔화 약세가 엔캐리 트레이드를 통해 해외 자산 가격을 부풀리고 있음. 일본이 질서 있게 YCC를 종료할 수 있을지가 핵심이며, 지연될수록 탈출은 어려워진다. 리스크: 연준의 과도한 긴축, 서비스 물가 고착, 중국 부진, 일본 YCC 종료 실패.

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01. the latest delivering Alpha investor survey which consists of the nation's leading institutional investors top strategists and our own CNBC contributors we ask for thoughts on whether the FED should hike rates 74 percent of the participants said they should pause the rest think they should hike nobody thinks it's time to cut rates for his thoughts on this in the markets let's bring in Mohamed El Ari and chief economic advisor at Allianz and president at great to see you or did you fall in that survey so I think if they are serious about that two percent inflation Target then they should hike in fact chair pal told us yesterday that a majority of the fomc expects to at least use the word at least two more hikes so if they are serious about two percent they should hike do you think that they will have to give up two percent in some way or acknowledge that going towards two percent or touching two percent is sufficient I mean it seems like you know everybody talks about Jackson Hole but Jackson Hole might be a sort of a good time to sort of elaborate on that and and expound their views so Sarah Eisen asked that question um at Centra and all three Central Bank Governor other than the back of Japan so ECB fed and Bank of England made it very clear they don't want to even talk about it the problem Melissa and we see it in the data on a weekly basis is that because the Fed was late inflation has gotten embedded in the service sector and to get to inflation in the service sector via interest rate you undermine the good sector so that that is the trade-off they want they need to make they want to maintain optionality right now that's why they paused um at the at the last meeting but let's hope that's not the model middle because getting to service inflation is tricky we saw this again in Europe today headline came down but coal went up and that we are seeing as a repeated message in most of the advanced world right and then we have the um the the sticky point of China not doing as well as some people might want months and some questions about whether Beijing will actually embark on a huge stimulus and I asked this in the context of it being a major trading partner of Europe and if China doesn't come out of its Funk that could really impact the odds of a recession in Europe and maybe even here too what are your thoughts there it could and I think China's five percent inflation um growth Target is optimistic but having said that you know it is incredibly impressive how resilient the US economy is two percent growth in the first quarter we're tracking this uh for the second quarter and it's incredible how resilient most of the U.S stock markets have been you mentioned the 30 gain in the NASDAQ 14 and a half gain in the s p despite despite two-year rates being 50 basis points higher this year despite the curve inverting to minus 100 basis points for twos tens so you know we have a resilient economy and we have a resilient Market despite everything that's been happening around it how would you make sense of this all though Muhammad I mean it sort of doesn't if I told you at the beginning of the year that rates are going to be where they are guess where the stock market is going to be I don't know if many people would have said S P 500 Higher by 15 NASDAQ Higher by 30.

02. would you and they and they wouldn't have um but part of the answer is in the Apple chart you head up you had Apple up 47 so you have a few stocks as we know that led this incredible surge up to about a few weeks ago then it broadened out and those are what I call either um secular theme stocks like the AI stocks or all weather stocks like Apple and now it's broadening so you had that impact and then you had the other thing is that all the people who have been predicted predicting recession I'm not one of them I've come on on you on your channel over and over again saying I don't see why the US needs to fall into recession unless there's a policy mistake but all those people who have been predicting recession have been proven wrong the US economy is much more resilient than people are willing to acknowledge so you think that the FED can can go towards or move in the right direction of two percent and the markets can still go higher and we do not have a recession it seems like that's just too good to be true so I think if they insist on two percent which means going after service inflation hard um they could undermine all this if however they're willing to tolerate a three to four percent inflation rate provided it's stable then you can maintain this they're going to have a difficult choice to make and so far they've told us they don't want to even talk about changing the two percent Target but that is what they're going to face internally they've got to have to confront this issue as to how much do you want to bash the good side the manufacturing side to get to your service inflation because that is the problem right now Muhammad how how much should we be paying attention to the weakness and the Yen which is you know at a seven month low against the U.S dollar at this point and and the impact that a Yen Carey trade is having on inflating asset prices here in in Elsewhere for that matter so what we're seeing happening the Yen with the Yen nearly 145 versus the dollar is a function of interest rate differentials um as you know Japan implements this very strange yield curve control keeping the 10-year below 50 basis points and the rest of the world is seeing rates go higher look it it doesn't matter to us as long as they can exit yield curve control in an orderly fashion and they've been waiting and waiting and the longer they wait the harder it is it's like a fixed exchange rate everybody knows you have to exit and the longer you wait the harder it is to exit so the big question for us will be can they eventually exit the ycc policy regime in an orderly fashion and the Drew is out of this we simply don't know we have not seen this happen before