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WisdomTree. With age comes wisdom, and I consider you wise. We've both seen a lot in our careers, and we've both seen significantly higher interest rates. So I'll start with what I understand: from relatively low levels, any changes mean a much larger percentage movement than from high levels. But does this really threaten to stop the AI boom at this stage because they cannot finance projects at current rates on 10-, 2-, or 30-year bonds?
Isn't there too much excitement about this right now? I can't believe that the Ministry of Finance decided to take this step. It's almost like saying, "Wow , we noticed this and we're concerned about it." I would ignore it at these levels. First of all, it's nice to see all three of you together again.
Oh, exactly. Thank you. We call it the "wild trio," and I don't mean anything bad by that. But I completely agree , I'm not a fan of " Operation Twist." I didn't think the markets were out of control or needed additional liquidity, and I completely agree with you, Joe, we were already at four and three-quarters on the 10-year .
This is not a critical point. Of course, I'm not saying we can't get there in the future, but this is not the level where we need to panic about funding. As you said, years from now we would look at current rates and say, "My God, what low rates compared to what we saw 30-40 years ago ." But I think Warsh's appearance is scheduled for Friday at 10:00.
I consider this a very important event. I think the market is prepared for the Fed not to give forecasts. They are ready to accept it. What they want is to understand what criteria you are guided by? Do you look at five-year inflation expectations? Are you looking at the futures market for Fed rates?
Do you know what criteria are important to you ? And I believe that this is the proper function of the Fed— to reveal this to the market. And if Warsh does that, I think we could see a big rally on Friday. For example, on Wednesday we get the PCE report, and I think it will be good. In fact, I think the figures will be at or even below expectations.
So, you know, I don't think there will be any significant pressure. Let's face the truth from a political perspective. I don't see Warsh raising the stakes. Is this true, is this really true? Is it true or just an urban legend that the market, by definition, tests every new Fed chairman? And if I were, if I were going to do it, if I were the market and I was devilishly cunning, I would keep growing to see if that was the case .
And is this what we see? Is the market testing Kevin Warsh now by slowly rising? Well, I think if Kevin had disappointed on Friday and given such a, you know, bland and uninformative speech, the market might have started testing again. Although again, he always has a chance to correct at the Fed meeting on September 16th, which is important because of the SEP forecasts and everything else, but there could be a bit of a test if he disappoints on Friday.
So yes, to some extent you could even say that there was a tiny mini- test when 30- year bonds rose above the 5% mark. So I think that again , this speech on Friday is something we should be watching. Hey Jeremy, when you say "if he disappoints the market," how exactly can he disappoint it? I think if he, you know, doesn't give any criteria for what he's looking at and just says, " We've had great discussions, interesting debate, and we're going to let the market..." I think the important thing is whether he comments on Bessant and the intervention in the 30-year bond.
As we all know, he was a big believer in the principle of "let the market speak for itself," and now will we get an answer, and there were a lot of questions about what his reaction was? What is his real reaction to Scott Bessant? Did they communicate? Was this a surprise? Well, I'm not sure if he'll include that in his speech or not.
And if I remember correctly, there is no question and answer session after the Jackson Hole talk. So, but that's probably the number one question they would ask. But they have to be ready for it. I want clean bets. Well, you know, will I get net rates if the Fed changes its repayment structure at this particular time.
But I think what the market really wants to know is that you're not raising rates. You voted against this. Okay, but what criteria are you looking at? And there are a whole bunch of numbers that could justify it, and they would feel more confident. These are the criteria that we look at, and that you look at, we can monitor this as well, and it's not me?
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These are huge numbers, so the natural question i implementing AI in enterprises. are potentially slowing at doesn't necessarily mean that the corporat subdu Nvidia. The history of AI is no longer just about who created the most advanced models. watching for several risks. One of them is the possibility of a negative reaction to data centers.
Another is the debt that some companies are taking in the field of AI. inancupplying a significant portion of the underlying chips. Next up is open source artificial intelligence. If open sourc supply the computing power necessary for these models to work. . Agent AI is potentially capable of performing will .
So even moving to more AI-heavy that future demand for Nvidia products still comes from inventory in warehouses? This would obviously raise questions about have been accumulated. What matters is whether customers continue to deploy the infrastructure they signed up for. So far, the development of corporate AI has not stopped.
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