원문 보기
yeah and you know one of the amazing things about what's happened since the financial crisis is everything the fed has done all their predictions have been wrong uh yet all my predictions have been right with respect to what was the consequence of their policies yeah they they believed that that after that qe1 was the only one that they needed i told i said from the beginning that no they would do it again and again and again and they thought they'd be able to shrink their balance sheet and normalize rates i i said that that was impossible from the beginning i mean they they expected a different result uh than they got but the results that they got were exactly what i expected the only thing that hasn't happened yet is the market hasn't figured out where we're going right that there's this endless money printing uh that this monetary roach motel can only end in a u.s dollar crisis that america is going to keep on printing money until the money has no value right we're going to keep on going into debt until our creditors realize that they're never going to get paid yeah and i think it's those sort of things that you say that is the timing and people like steve keane a lot of others have got the dates and the timing wrong because nobody expected that that just printed trillion dollars or that they'd take rates below zero and the things that they did if the natural forces were allowed to play out we would have been in the situation that many predicted but that i knew that they would do it i just didn't know that they would get away with it because you figure the markets would wise up uh but they just haven't done that yet but you know economically you know the the economy has not really grown uh they're pretending that it has so there has been a lot of damage that's been done as a result of this monetary policy we just haven't had a complete collapse of the system yet we haven't had a dollar crisis in the u.s you know sovereign debt crisis but but that's coming i mean that's inevitable because that's the only way that this is going to stop right we're getting we're going to keep running bigger and bigger deficits and printing more and more money until the world has had enough and i think the breaking point is is coming pretty soon i think the old cleanest sturdy shirt in the laundry has kind of been the us but also australia like we've had decent interest rates up until the last 12 months or so and our central bank head was saying you know we'll never go to zero we'll never do qe and here we are i've announced 100 billion dollars last week and we're at zero and the u.s is you know trillion dollar deficits and now the world is waking up and wall street looks maybe a quarter at a time but i think the reality is hitting in as you say now and that's going to affect the bond markets and everything's going to get repriced oh absolutely look we're it's going to be a monetary reset i think the world's going to go back on the gold standard there's no other way that this is going to end you know this this system is going to collapse there hasn't been a fiat monetary system that has survived they also come to the same fundamental flaw and the world always returns to gold the only difference between the experiment that we're running now and all the experiments with fiat currencies that have failed in the past is the scale of this one this one involves the entire world just not one country experimenting with it you've got the whole world that have been conned into this and it was really america that led the way because we got everybody to go off the gold standard and to go on the dollar standard but we only were able to do that because the dollar was not only backed by gold but redeemable on demand in gold so holding dollars was holding gold except it was better because you could buy us treasuries with your dollars and earn interest right you got no interest on your gold but you got interest on your treasuries but you could have your gold whenever you wanted it so the world kind of you know accepted this and then we abused it we printed too much money we didn't have enough gold the world woke up and they said hey we want our gold and then we defaulted because we didn't have it the dollar dropped we had the stagflation of the 1970s uh but then the dollar stopped falling uh mainly because we probably you know got the opec nations to you know to price oil in dollars but eventually the dollar found a floor and the world continued to use it as its main reserve even though it was backed by nothing but you know if you have a currency that's backed by something that's backed by nothing then your that currency is backed by nothing too and and you just can't have a global fiat system money has to have real value money has to be an actual commodity it can't just be something you know manufactured out of thin air uh but that's what we have now and so we have all this instability we have all these imbalances we have all these bubbles uh and we don't have the type of economic growth that we would otherwise have with sound money in terms of the us debt there's getting to the point now where getting back to even you know two or three percent target inflation ban on this 29 trillion or whatever it is they're struggling to even pay the interest on the debt so for people at home that are beginners that don't maybe understand the bond market that well can you give them like the beginner's version of how big this debt is and how hard it is to pay and why the rest of the world's losing confidence well the debt is enormous right i forget you know maybe 28 trillion about now but again that's just the tip of the iceberg right because that's just the funded debt where the u.s government has sold treasuries into the market but that's not all the debt that the u.s government is obligated to pay we have all sorts of unfunded contingent liabilities where the united states government has guaranteed the debts of other entities uh where the united states government has guaranteed bank accounts student loans pensions uh mortgages so there's all sorts of debt and then we have liabilities that the government has made uh to americans uh social security medicare to government workers pensions none of this is funded so all this is debt so the real debt is well above 100 trillion i don't even remember where it is but it's a number that dwarfs all the assets of the united states combined all the physical assets so america is certainly broke the problem is just paying the interest on the national debt right now i think it's something like three 400 billion a year that's because rates are a zero but if interest rates return to normal maybe four or five percent then it would be impossible to pay the interest because i think the interest payments alone would exceed what the government collects in taxes yeah right so you can't spend 100 of your revenue on interest how do you fund the rest of government yeah right so the only thing between america and insolvency is these artificially low interest rates yeah that's why the fed has them down that it's not because of covet it's because if they let rates go up we can't pay so they keep them at zero indefinitely but eventually the bottom has to fall out of the dollar because america's creditors just assume that we'll never default right because we could just print whatever money we need but the reality has to set in that printing money is the same as default if the money that we print doesn't buy you anything yeah and ultimately that's what has to happen if we're going to keep on printing money with no end in sight because we have no ability to legitimately repay our debt and we're just going to keep conjuring money into existence without any products to back it up eventually the dollar has to collapse i mean that's the only way it's going to end yeah and that's the same as default in fact i think it's worse i think if america actually did the right thing and restructured its debt and maybe offered to pay 20 cents on the dollar to people who own treasuries right so you have a million dollars worth of treasuries you know tear those up we'll give you 200 000 right i think that would be a better outcome than what we're going to get because i think the dollar is going to lose a lot more than 80 percent of its purchasing power by the time those long-term bonds mature so yes the real losses are going to be bigger through inflation than through a more honest default let's go down that path then of of gold becoming because some people say it's too far gone to have this reset and go back on a gold standard so is it like a partial thing or does it they just have to bite the bullet and say you know what gold's ten thousand an ounce or how does that how does that look no it's very easy it's not hard to do i mean you can look at it you know on a country level i mean there have been plenty of countries where their currency is collapsed what do they do to try to restore confidence they end up pegging their currency to the dollar right they say okay here's a new currency and to show you that to create confidence we're going to peg it to the dollar right so you know we just can't print it right we have to maintain this peg well if the dollar collapses we can't peg it to the euro we can't go to the yen right i mean once the dollar collapses the only thing that would work would be okay we're going to peg it to gold that's how you can reinstill confidence in the monetary system it's very simple and the only thing that has to happen is the price of gold has to go up that's all which is easy yeah you know because people say well there's not enough gold there's not enough gold at nineteen hundred dollars an ounce there's plenty of gold at thirty 000 an ounce or whatever the price has to be yeah because all you have to do is have a relationship and then once you have it established now the governments have to maintain it and now you can have confidence in the purchasing power of the money because it's tied to gold yeah you have confidence in gold i don't want to go off into tangent here and we peter and i are going to talk about crypto a little bit later but this is something that i think people are really misunderstanding with everyone talking about central bank digital currencies at the moment if it's just pegged to a dollar a peg to a fiat currency it is exactly the same i'm not sure why people are getting excited about these things um they just you know they're losing this picture that doesn't matter what it's pegged to if it's fear they're still printing trillions of trillions of them yeah well there are obviously countries where the governments don't have deficits where they have balanced budgets where the countries have trade surpluses you can have more confidence that the central bank in that country won't print too much money but the problem is now every central bank is worried that if they don't print a lot of money their currency is going to go up in value and that's the one thing no central banker wants i mean it's crazy but everybody thinks the worst thing that can happen is that your currency appreciates and so everybody is forced to debase their currency it's like you're you're you're in you're in class and you're afraid that you might get an a you know and so you you want to make sure that you flunk out like like the stupidest kid in the class so everybody is trying to get an f that's actually that's better yeah that's actually what phil lowe said in his meeting in his minutes this week about why the rba did the 100 billion of qe it was mainly about the currency getting too strong yeah but what's wrong with your currency getting strong that means you that means your cost of living goes down and your standard of living goes up i mean strength is a good thing people used to want a strong currency that showed that you had a strong economy yeah right but this is all a bunch of nonsense that the politicians and the central bankers want us to swallow that that weakness is strength that something that's that's good is bad i mean it's crazy you
댓글 0