저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아 실적 발표 후 주가가 하락했고, 핵심 원인은 매출·수익보다 가이던스(약 20% 미스)였다. 실적: EPS 1.84달러(예상 1.71달러 대비 약 7.6% 상회), 매출 31.8억 달러(예상 32.8억 달러 대비 약 1.9% 하회)로 혼합 결과였다. 가이던스: 다음 분기 가이던스가 27억 달러로 예상 34억 달러를 크게 밑돌아, 성장주에 치명적인 미스로 평가했다. 이로 인해 주가가 약 200달러에서 약 133달러로 며칠 만에 급락했다. 원인 분석: 암호화폐 붐 때 수요를 과대추정해 재고가 과잉 상태이며, 소진에 1~2분기가 더 걸리고 그 과정에서 가격 인하와 이익률 악화가 불가피하다고 봤다. 경쟁사 AMD의 신제품도 기존 제품을 압도할 위험이 있다고 언급했다. 부문별: 게이밍 17.6억 달러(예상 18.9억 달러 하회), 데이터센터 7.92억 달러(예상 8.21억 달러 하회), 전문 시각화 3.05억 달러(예상 2.84억 달러 상회). 내부자 및 애널리스트: 내부자들이 고점 부근에서 지분을 매도했고, CEO도 약 1,100만 달러어치를 매도했다. 애널리스트 목표가는 하향됐지만 여전히 50% 이상 상승 여지를 제시했다. 발언자 포지션: 보유 중이던 엔비디아 지분을 실적 발표 직전 대부분 매도해 비중을 크게 줄였고, 장기적으로는 AI·자율주행 기술을 근거로 소량 보유 입장을 유지한다고 밝혔다. 향후 전망: 단기적으로 120달러 지지선 이탈 시 95~100달러까지 하락할 수 있다고 봤고, 165~170달러 부근 반등 후 다시 120달러 부근까지 밀릴 것으로 예상했다. 다만 단기 결과는 예측이 어렵다고 덧붙였다. 리스크: 단기 상승 시 자신이 틀릴 수 있음을 인정했다.
다듬은 글
Nvidia reported their earnings last week and since then the stock is down over 25% after hitting a low as much as 30% does this mean that Nvidia is now a buy or does this mean that Nvidia is possibly heading to $100 per share let's find out hey welcome back to another video guys if you're new here make sure to subscribe down below join the community and if you are a longtime subscriber make sure you to drop a huge like to show your support for the channel so let's first start off this video by looking at how Nvidia performed in last earnings report so as we can see here they reported an EPS of a $184 versus a $171 expected which was around a 7.6% beat and then on the revenue side they reported around 3.18 billion versus 3.28 billion which was around 1.9% Miss so looking at this the results were not that great but they weren't that bad either Revenue did Miss but it was fairly low and on the flip side EPS did beat by a bigger margin than Revenue missed however just looking at these results you can't really get the whole story because this is not what spooked investors in fact the guidance in my opinion is what spooked investors so ready for it in the next quarter Nvidia reported an expected guidance of 2.7 billion versus 3.4 billion expected that's over a 20% Miss on guidance so for a growth stock this is a massive Miss and this in my opinion spooked a lot of investors into thinking that the growth days that Nvidia has had over the last couple of years is pretty much come to an end and as a result if that is true it's most likely time to move on from the stock into other potential growth stocks so as a result of this news the stock price dropped from around $200 per share to around $133 per share in just a couple of days investors went ahead and instantly priced in this Miss and they pretty much priced in a Slowdown and growth moving forward for NVIDIA and all of this changed literally overnight including the sentiment many investors are not as bullish on Nvidia now than they were right before Nvidia reported their earnings so that shows how the shift in sentiment has really affected the stock recently and what this really goes to show you is how one earnings report can really change a whole story around a company and and this is especially true when it comes to large high growth companies if you look at Facebook for example this was a perfect example where they did have slowdown in their growth and as a result the stock price did take a massive hit and has continued sliding since then now if we take a look at tip ranks over here we can see that there was actually even a downwards drop in price targets from analysts although they see still a combined upside of over 50% in the stock it is down significantly from their price targets from say October if if we quickly look at The Insider activity as well you can see that the Insiders did see this coming and many of them have been selling portions of their positions while the stock hit all-time highs sometime in late September early October now even their CEO unloaded around $11 Million worth of shares at $271 198 per share which is minuscule compared to his 3.6 billion position but it was still interesting to see that he did sell out a position when the stock was near its all-time high now if you want to see more insight on Nvidia or any other stock on tip ranks I will leave a link down description click that link sign up for free and you get a lot more insight into this stock and some of your other favorite stocks as well but anyways a guidance Miss of 20% is no joke it's not something we can just brush off the shoulder and just pretend it didn't happen we really need to take a look at this and see what this means for the stock moving forward now so at this point you might be wondering why they miss so significantly on their guidance and why they even had a Miss on Revenue in this past quarter I mean this time last year the stock was really setting records you had blowouts in their revenue blowouts in their earnings blowouts in their guidance everything was going well for the stock and there in lies the problem because this time last year cryptocurrencies were pretty much booming and peing and envidia kind of went along for the ride there in fact you can see here that their CEO even said on their last earnings call that our near-term results reflect excess Channel inventory post the cryptocurrency boom which will be corrected he also admitted on that call that they did overestimate the demand of the cryptocurrency Boom in 2018 going into 2019 and as a result they have a lot of product sitting on the shelves in inventory this year he also mentioned that because of all this it will take an extra one or two quarters to go through all of this inventory that's just sitting there now as an investor this is not good news because you never want to see companies that have to store products on their shelves because they have an excessive inventory due to demand and this is bad because now when they do try to go sell this product over the next few quarters they're most likely going to reduce prices on these products so they can get them out the door and there's also not going to be as much demand as people were expecting because these products are now older products and there's newer products out there from competitors like AMD which will completely blow these existing products out of the water so Nvidia is really going to have to take a cut here on their profits most likely take a loss on these products just to get out the door just so they don't have to hold on to this inventory for much longer but the bad news unfortunately for AMD did not end there because they were down on other segments of their business as well so their gaming business segment actually generated 1.76 billion versus 1.89 billion expected so a Miss there data center segment came in at 792 million versus 821 million which is also a Miss there but on the flip side the professional visualization business segment was a 305 million versus 284 million milon so we had a slight beat over there the data center business in my opinion out of the three was the most surprising because a lot of investors including myself got into the stock initially because they had massive potential in data centers and as we progressed in 2018 going to 2019 we saw data center demand increasing not decreasing we saw cloud computing demand increasing not decreasing and as a result we expected nvidia's Revenue especially from this segment to be increasing not missing but one of two things seem to have happened either their demand wasn't as strong as expected in this past quarter or which is most likely prices for memory actually did drop and as a result prices for their products did drop so they probably had to cut cost to compete with other players in this space either way whatever it was the result contributed to this 20% drop after earnings that we saw so now you must be wondering what am I personally doing with my Nvidia position so right off the bat I'm not going to pretend like I saw this coming I do have position in Nvidia and I have been a bull in this company for a little while and I did not see a miss this big to be honest now on the revenue side I did expect Revenue to come in at pretty much in line to what analysts were expecting or even at worst case a slight Miss but what I did not see coming was this massive Miss on the guidance side anyways if you were in my VIP membership group over the last few months you would have seen that I did post out that I was reducing my stake in Nvidia going into this earnings report and as you can see here I did post post my latest sell order which was placed right before the day of earnings that they reported and you can also see my reasoning for selling which was pretty much in line with what we saw now I do still have a stake in Nvidia but it makes up a very tiny portion of my portfolio and is an amount I'm comfortable holding for many years to come again if you like this sort of insight from me and you want to see stocks that I'm buying selling or have positions in you can consider joining the VIP membership group or the patreon page I will leave links to both in description down below so now the the question really remains do I think Nvidia is heading lower do I think Nvidia is heading to possibly $100 per share so the answer to that is I do believe yes that Nvidia is heading lower in my opinion I don't think that the pain around this stock is done quite yet so if we look at the charts here we can see that a big gap from $113 to $114 was created but there is very strong support at around $120 so what I think will happen is we will start selling off and we will hit that $120 support level and if that does break I believe we will fill the Gap and find support at around $95 to $100 per share now on the flip side there's also a massive Gap from $170 to $195 and this is Created from this past earnings report now as much as I'd love for this stock to go up and fill that Gap I don't think that's going to happen in the short term especially and I think that we may have a rally up to say $165 $170 per share but then I think that we'll completely roll over and start of descend down closer to $120 per share to test that support but again shortterm anything can really happen I can be completely wrong Nvidia could rally back up $200 per share next week and the Bulls are going to be happy the Bears are going to be crushed and that's just how the stock market works and if this does happen I'm sure you guys are going to remind me and point to this video and say ha you thought it was going to drop to $100 now it's up at $200 you completely wrong but let's not forget here that I am still a bull on Nvidia for the long term I do will have a small position in Nvidia for the long term I do believe in the technology I believe in the advancements they're making in Ai and self-driving and I do believe that they have a lot of potential ahead of them as they work through this big mess that they're in currently anyways I hope you guys enjoyed this video and a lot of you asked about my opinions on Nvidia and if it changed after their last earnings report so I hope this video answered those questions for you if you do have an interest in me covering any other stocks that you may be following or invested in let me know in the comments section down below I can make similar videos for other stocks as well giving my opinion around it but of course the best videos will be ones that I'm personally invested in and if you're curious again links will be in the description to my membership group so you can view my portfolio now remember if you guys don't comment down below I'm not going to know what stocks you want to see so make sure you have your voice heard comment down below I read every single comment I reply to every single comment so make sure to comment down below but either way guys don't forget to best positively peace
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