SOXX ETF Ran, then Dipped. Is Now the Time to Buy?

요약 보기

반도체 ETF(SOXX) 최근 조정 후 매수 기회 여부 논의. 발언자는 반도체 장기 성장성을 긍정하며 조정 시 분할 매수 의향을 밝힘. VIX 20, RSI 30 이하 같은 극단 신호는 드물다고 보며, 연내 상반기 변동성 후 하반기 S&P500 +10% 전망을 제시. 더 큰 하락 가능성(연준, 공급망, 러-우 등)도 언급.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. so our first question relates to uh the market ran for the last two weeks and now it's kind of retreating um if you mentioned the semiconductor ekf multiple times sucks um you know now that we've seen a pullback is it a good time to add yeah it's been interesting you know soxx is the ishares semiconductor etf and what we use in our portfolios pretty heavily right now to buy semiconductor exposure lots of different ways to do that individual stocks and etfs but it had a fantastic run in this upward movement to outpace the market by a lot it is also outpacing the market on the downside you know also it's just a bit more volatile as far as that goes so it's not for everybody we use it in our more aggressive portfolios you know that type of thing but yeah actually i would be a buyer on the dips because i believe that the semiconductor arena as a whole is really one of the most amazing places for the future if you look at the reports that are going on for the number of semiconductors that are being demanded and how many they can build and the restricted supply and the amount of money that's flooding into new production and what have you so there's always some you know potential headwinds with any investment area but i do like semiconductor i do like that particular index and you know specifically like nvidia and amd for example so when those pull back i am interested you know i don't know where bottoms are what have you we've seen the s p 500 just bounce i'll generally look at the overall market in this particular environment if the overall market's bouncing i might be a nibbling at the at the dips here on those types of indexes so yeah i i do like it could you use like the same indicator that you would use for when you um rebalance the portfolio um would that be the same indicator you used to be a buy kind of a buy sign yeah i use a couple of pieces first of all i like to see the vix you know high which is a fear index right now it's quite low right and so the fear index is down substantially it was at 35 36 it's at 20 now and i like to use the rsi indicator see that below 30.

02. so the problem with that type of dip buying is it's fairly infrequent uh we did that we had both of those signals come to us on january 24th and february 24th but we're pretty far away from that right now and i don't know that we're going to get back to that rsi level and i don't think we're going to get back to that fix level anytime soon but if that did happen yes i would be a buyer i would be rebalancing but we're in a different market now where now we're kind of coming back up coming back up and you know my personal feeling has always been for the year first half of the year we get to zero because we have this volatility second half of the year we get the positive 10 on the s p 500 that's been my outlook from you know since late last year actually so it's fitting well within my thought process and so if that's true i might not see those buy signals again in this recovery so i've got to buy on more minor you know drops as far as that goes if i want to buy on the dips because i think the bigger dips are oh i hope actually the bigger dips are behind us now here's the big thing about this environment that we're in right now there are a lot of things happening that could cause a much bigger dip right this you know all the things that we know about the federal reserve inflation the supply chain issues the situation in china with the lockdown for covid the scenario in ukraine and russia right all of those knowns and the gas and oil prices and materials and all of these things have been already kind of factored in and the market just had a fantastic run in that environment but what else is there yeah does the russia default on some debt that creates a cascade of problems in other areas and so there's a lot of other possibilities so if that happens then obviously we would get another possible chance to buy on the dip with those more extreme signals but i kind of go with what i see at the moment uh because there's always coulda woulda shoulda's that could happen and this might happen that might happen you know i'll react to that as as they do happen i'll get more conservative if i need to and those types of things but overall the economy is still hot in my opinion and the stock market already had its 15 drop i think we're heading back upward i would buy a more minor dips uh with a semiconductor it might be one of my favorite areas to buy in because it is down still you know year to date a fair amount so there's still some bargain-ish type purchases that you can make here in my opinion