저자: JeffreyGundlach · 외국인
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결론: 금리 인상과 인플레이션 장기화로 위험자산 추가 하락이 예상되며, 공포 저점 이후 성장주 매수 기회를 볼 것이라는 견해. 인플레이션·원유: 원유가 현 100~105달러 수준을 유지하면 연간 CPI가 7%까지 갈 수 있으며, 2022년 4% 수준 도달도 어렵다고 봄. 원유 선물곡선은 현재보다 낮은 가격을 시사하지만 유가 급등 가능성은 남아 있음. 연준·금리: 연준이 인플레이션을 잡으려 하나 뒤늦게 대응 중. 2년물 국채금리가 연준 정책을 선행해 왔으며 연준이 금리를 두 차례 50bp 인상할 필요가 있다고 봄. 75bp 인상 가능성에 대해서는 연준이 부정하는 소통이 이해되지 않는다고 언급. 채권시장: 하이일드 채권시장이 사실상 멈춰 있고 신규 발행이 거의 없어 유동성 문제가 하위 정크본드에서 나타날 수 있다고 경고. 장기 금리 하락이 동반될 수 있음. 10년물 수준 약 2.5% 금리 하단은 쉽게 깨지지 않을 것으로 봄. 주식 전망: S&P500이 추가로 약 10% 하락해 공포 저점을 형성할 것으로 예상. 이 과정에서 60/40 포트폴리오는 올해 마이너스로 마감할 것이라 전망. 성장주에 대한 시각은 극도의 부정에서 약간 부정으로 바뀌었으며, 공포 저점 이후 성장주에 매우 긍정적으로 전환할 계획이며 그 저점이 참여할 만한 랠리를 만들 것이라 봄. 리스크: 연준의 양적 긴축이 아직 시작되지 않았고, 인플레이션 사이클을 깨거나 연준이 항복할 때까지 시장이 도전받을 것이라는 조건부 시나리오. 출연자 전망: 위 발언이 전반적인 시장 견해이며, 개별 자산 목표가는 제시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
let me ask you uh uh about crude oil since we're talking about commodities i i know i saw it where this happens to be one of the big drivers of course uh that you had once at some point you were looking at 200 a barrel is that still possible i don't think so uh that was really in all the scare of the war coming and everything else and we got a wti up to 125 a barrel and as long as the thing is it doesn't need to go to 150 or 200 to continue to provide tailwinds for inflation i mean oil staying where it is today could lead to a seven percent cpi for the year 2020 as a whole we look at the forward curve on west texas intermediate crude oil and it actually suggests that we would have a lower oil price than where we are today uh later on this year but if we just stay where we are about 100 105 a barrel we could very well have a seven percent cpi for this year and this is what going back to how we started the conversation charles that's why this there's this mr magoo problem the fed is talking about bringing inflation down and yet there's little reason to believe it's going to go anywhere close to even a four percent level for the year 2022 so they're kind of stuck you know they they waited too long to raise interest rates the bond market was way ahead of them the two-year treasury is always the leader for what fed policy is going to be the two-year treasury was at 15 basis points about a year ago and then it went up to almost you know 275 or so basically taunting the fed and begging the fed to stop with the zero interest rate policy and the fed had to do it once the spread between fed funds and the two year got so ridiculously wide and so there's good news that the two year has relaxed uh in the past uh several uh trading days or a couple of weeks but it still suggests that the fed has got to raise rates a couple of 50s sure and with the bond market trading getting much more illiquid and much more cautious and the stock market going down in an orderly manner as well i think we're going to see some disorder and putting in uh another leg down on risk assets that will be scarier than the one that we experienced in the past couple of weeks let me ask you then because it seems to me and then yesterday was another example you talk about this taunting where the fed keeps going out of its way to tell us no we're not going to go 75 they had a golden opportunity yesterday after the cpi number and the reaction in the markets and still you had a couple of fed heads say now we'll stick to 50.
what's their reluctance everyone expects them to do this people wanting to do this the market probably would cheer the move what do you think is holding him back it's a mr magu problem it's such a blunt instrument that they've got no idea at what level things are going to start falling apart so they want to do it slowly but they're so far behind i understand your your point charles they're so far behind that the people i remember uh there was some commentator that was saying they should just do you know 75 right now like not gonna wait for a meeting just just do it and the market probably uh the market probably wouldn't find that to be such a problem because the bond market is already saying you've got to do this so yeah they're just very slow and they want to make sure that they don't just go diving off a cliff or off of a diving board into a swimming pool that has no water so they're kind of feeling their way along but they're going to have to do these these 50s and uh i am surprised that they are so clear in their communication of no 75.
so you're in buffalo for the albright knox uh gunlock art museum which by the way i looked at the renderings absolutely amazing so tell us about this project because it certainly looks like a labor of love yeah uh the museum was built uh the original building was in 1905 and it was completely falling apart you know they call it deferred maintenance i call it neglect and then there was another building that was built in 1962 and that also has to be upgraded for ada compliance everything else but the other the most important thing is the museum is one of the greatest of modern art museums in the world uh and yet it is very uh small in terms of its physical plant and can't show the hundreds of renowned masterpieces that are acknowledged by art enthusiasts around the world so we decided we needed to upgrade the old buildings and build a lot more space so we're building a new building that's doubling the size actually a little more than doubling the size of uh the the prime gallery space and that's we've started raising the money six years ago and i'm happy to say that the fundraising just in the last month or so has become complete and the museum the new building and the refurbished campus it's amazing we're at we're doubling the size of the gallery space charles and yet we're increasing the amount of green space because we're putting the park uh parking lot underground so we're actually increasing the green space while increasing the gallery space going forward to opening if all goes well and i think we're on track uh in the spring of of next year and so i i it would be great if the weather uh on that opening day were like it is today in buffalo because it's like a paradise here today well i got to tell you i'll i'll definitely make the trek up there i'm a huge uh art buff and and i love museums so we got a couple minutes ago you were you you see things long before everyone else can you guide the audience through a potential road map of what's to be expected perhaps between now and the rest of the year well i i think we're going to have to put in more of a fear low on risk assets and everything seems to be building in that regard we're starting to see the high yield bond market is basically shut down there's been one new issue deal in the past couple of weeks it's not because companies don't want to you know borrow money at low interest rates because they're the market is getting more and more dicey so i think we're going to see another 10 percent drop on uh the s p 500 before we hit that risk that that fear low and that could be consistent with uh sort of a a liquidity problem in the lower tiers of the junk bond market and that should provide it'll be scary that should provide a buying opportunity we have we have gone from uh our most negative possible on growth stocks to only slightly negative on growth stocks and we have a look to take as scarce it's going to be to get positive quite positive on growth stocks when we get to that fear low and i think that low will create a a rally that is worth participating in but i think with the fed uh doing it's its tightening and the quantitative tightening that hasn't even started yet we're probably going to be challenged uh as we as we go through this fed cycle until such time is they are forced to capitulate or they break the inflation cycle so i think this is going to be a a year where 60 40 uh closes the year with a minus sign in front of it uh and and i i do think though that the the next 10 down that i'm anticipating on something like the s p 500 will uh be joined with be accompanied by a decline in long-term bond yields so uh that that's what i'm looking for uh although i i i do think that we have sort of a a two and a half percent interest rate it's going to be hard to get below uh on most spots of the yield curve i got you well it sounds like a little bit more pain but if we can live through this uh maybe we'll come out okay jeffrey fantastic conversation i really appreciate your time thank you so much thanks charles
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