저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 제러미 그랜섬은 미국 주식시장이 붕괴 직전이며 2021년 거품이 디플레이션 국면으로 꺼지는 과정이라 경고하고, 투자자는 이에 대비해야 한다고 주장한다. [핵심 주장] 그랜섬은 미국 증시가 붕괴 가능성의 기로에 있다고 보며, 현 국면을 거품이 서서히 꺼지는 디플레이션기로 본다. 2021년을 대표적 거품기로 규정했다. [근거] 기업 이익 감소, 이익률 하락, 경기침체 가능성을 디플레이션의 원인으로 꼽았고, 침체가 다음 해까지 길어지며 주가 하락과 겹칠 수 있다고 전망했다. 거품의 영향이 아직 완전히 해소되지 않았다는 판단이다. [연준 비판] 연준의 경기침체 예측 실적이 나빴고, 금융 거품 이후의 디플레이션 영향을 과소평가해 왔다고 비판했다. [경기 전망] 강한 고용과 금리 인상에 따른 인플레이션 둔화로 완만한 둔화가 가능하다는 낙관론에 경계를 표했다. 향후 인플레이션과 금리가 다소 높은 환경을 대비하라고 조언했다. [금리와 자산가격] 저금리는 자산가격을 올리고 고금리는 내린다는 원리를 설명하며, 향후 10년 평균 금리가 지난 10년보다 높을 수 있다고 봤다. 이는 자산 밸류에이션과 투자 전략에 영향을 준다. [투자 심리] 사람들이 거품에 참여하는 이유로 FOMO(놓치는 것에 대한 공포)와 사회적 역학을 지목했다. 근본 요인을 무시하고 모두가 낙관하는 변곡점을 주의하라고 했다. [그랜섬 이력] 1998년부터 분기 서한을 써 왔고, 1999년 닷컴 거품 때 역발상 입장을 취해 고객 이탈을 겪었으나 2000~2002년 시장을 손실 없이 넘겼다. 다만 당시 이탈한 고객은 돌아오지 않았다. [언급 종목/자산] 미국 주식시장 전반(부정적, 하락 전망). 개별 종목 언급 없음. 미국 금리는 장기적으로 상승 방향으로 언급되었으나 구체적 수치·목표가·기간 없음. [리스크] 기업 이익 감소, 이익률 하락, 경기침체 장기화, 인플레이션과 고금리 지속이 주요 리스크로 제시되었다. [출연자 전망] 그랜섬: 미국 주식시장 하락 및 디플레이션 국면 지속을 장기적으로 예상. 가격 목표치는 제시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
hey guys welcome to inves Aday we race yourself for Jeremy grantham's vital warning collapse is coming but it can make you a millionaire stay tuned this is truly a game changer Jeremy Grandam a recognized Market Authority Imports a compelling message that combines Financial students with strategic opportunity drawing upon his steamed reputation as a seasoned Market predictor gream issues a stark warning regarding the impending collapse that looms over the US Stock Market his Insight serve as a Priceless resource for safeguarding your wealth furthermore Grand tham's distinctive Viewpoint and not only anticipates the forthcoming collapse but also unveils the potential for ASU investors to thrive amidst the ensuing turbulence let's delve deeper into this critical discourse in a recent exclusive interview with David robenstein on Bloomberg wealth Grandam shared his insights and predictions which have sent Shake waves through the financial World Grandam Begins by emphasizing the gravity of the situation stating that the US Stock Market appears to be tiering on the edge of collapse this track record for predicting financial disasters is well documented and his latest prognostic patients have raised alarm Bells among investors in a market where optimism and Rosy projections are prevalent Grand's perspective stands out as a cautionary tale he points out that the United States has been in the grip of a significant bubble particularly in 2021 which he characterizes as one of the great bubbles Grand the believes that the current phase should be a deflationary period during which the bubble gradually def flights this deflationary phase according to Grandam hinges on several factors including the potential decline in corporate earnings a decrease in profit margins and the looming possibility of an economic recession Grandam goes on to forecast that the recession could extend deep into the following year potentially coinciding with a decline in stock prices his perspective suggest that the effects of the bubble have not fully dissipated and there may be ongoing economic and market challenges in the near future well hitting the during the discussion Grandam expresses skepticism about the federal reserve's ability to accurately predict and respond to recessions he criticizes the fed's track record noting that it has has consistently been wrong in its predictions especially regarding recessions that follow major Financial bubbles gram implies that the FED has a history of being overly optimistic and taking credit for stimulating economic bubbles while neglecting to acknowledge the deflationary impact when those bubbles burst he waves a caution Flag Warning investors of potential trouble ahead even when others are feeling confident grant them also a addresses the recent debate about the state of the US economy while many on Wall Street big money investors and former Federal Reserve officials have been suggesting an economic slowdown or recession for almost 2 years recent developments have introduced a degree of optimism the strong job market and easing inflation due to the Federal Reserve aggressive interest rate hikes have led some to believe that a gentle economic slowdown is possible however grant them cautions against heating The Optimist and the Federal Reserves economists implying that they have a history of being overly optimistic He suggests that investors should be prepared for a different economic landscape one characterized by moderately higher inflation and interest rates Ransom delves into the relationship between interest rates and asset prices simplifying it by explaining that low rates tend to drive up asset prices while higher rates have the opposite effect of pushing asset prices down he anticipates an era where interest rates will average higher than day did over the past decade potentially impacting asset valuations and investment strategies when asked about why people often cannot resist participating in bubbles grant them points to human psychology and social dynamics he highlights the role of fomo or the fear of Miss in out which drives individuals to join in when they see others profiting and getting rich in a bubble he also discusses inflection points critical moments in a bubble's development when a significant number of people become bullish and stop considering fundamental factors Gram's reputation as a predictor of Bubbles and his ability to recognize when markets are out of kilter grew largely from his writings particularly his quarterly letters he began these letters in 1998 coinciding with a doom bubble of 1999 during which he took a contrarian stance despite their caution the bubble continued to inflate leading to a challenging period for Grandam Min steam he acknowledges that they were early in their warnings and that earnings were Rising due to the bubble's Ascent which contributed to the Market's remarkable climb this contrarian approach LED some clients to disapproved and they faced significant client departures however Gram's firm managed to navigate a challenging market conditions of 2000 to 2002 without incurring losses achieving positive returns Grandam notes that despite their subsequent success none of the clients who had pulled their investment during the dotcom bubble returned seeking the same product this highlights the challenge of regaining client Trust once its lost even if an investment strategy ultimately proves successful in conclusion Jeremy Gram's advice to avoid the US Stock Market is rooted in his belief that the market has been experiencing significant Bubbles and he anticipates a deflationary phase ahead his skepticism about the federal reserve's ability to manage economic conditions coupled with concerns about inflation and Rising interest rates leads him to offer a cautious Outlook Gram's perspective serves as a warning amid an environment of optimism suggesting that investors should be prepared for potential challenges in the financial landscape thank you for joining us today as we explore Jeremy grantham's vital warning about the impending collapse in the US Stock Market we've covered some crucial insights from a season Market predictor and now we want to hear from you what are your thoughts in Jeremy grantham's perspective do you agree with this warnings about the potential collaps and the challenges ahead in the financial landscape or do you have a different Viewpoint share your insights and opinions in the comment section below your perspective matters and it's valuable to have a diverse range of opinions in the world of investing well that's it for now e notification Bell to stay updated to their latest content
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