저자: K-Dub · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 비트코인은 현재 횡보 중이며 128일 이동평균선 지지가 유지되는 한 강세장 흐름이 이어질 수 있지만, 주간 MACD 약세 전환으로 $9,000 부근 하락 가능성도 열려 있다. 현재 시세와 지표: 비트코인 도미넌스는 약 69.2%(코인360 기준)~71.7%(트레이딩뷰 기준)로 상승세이며, 알트코인 자금이 비트코인으로 이동 중이다. 주말이라 거래량(약 4억 1,400만 달러)이 낮고, 공포·탐욕 지수는 20(극단적 공포)이다. 기술적 분석: 현재 가격은 일봉 EMA 리본 아래에 있으며, 21지수이동평균(약 $9,000)이 지지선 역할을 하고 있다. 쐐기형 패턴(베어리시 페넌트) 가능성이 언급되었고, 9,000달러 지지 이탈 시 하락 가능성이 있다고 봤다. 위클리 128일 이동평균선: 윌리 우(Willy Wu)의 분석을 인용, 강세장에서는 이 선을 여러 번 터치해야 하며 지지가 유지되면 강세 추세가 확인된다고 설명했다. 2017년 강세장에서는 12번 터치 후 상승했고, 2019년 3월 터치 후 215% 상승, 최근 이평선 상향 돌파 후 244% 상승 뒤 31% 조정 사례를 제시했다. 현재 지지가 유지되고 있어 강세 신호로 보았다. 약세 신호: 주간 MACD가 약세 교차로 전환되고 있으며, 윌리 우는 이를 무시하면 위험하다고 경고했다. 진행자는 단기적으로 추가 하락 가능성도 언급했다. 역사적 비교: 2016년 5월 MACD 약세 전환 후 9,000달러 부근에서 횡보(축적 구간)를 거친 뒤 약 1년 반 동안 강세장이 이어졌던 사례를 제시하며, 역사가 반복될 수 있다는 가능성을 언급했다. 리스크 및 기타: 15개월 거래량가중이동평균선은 신호가 늦지만 틀리지 않는다고 평가했다. 잭 도시 트위터 계정 해킹 사건을 계기로 거래소 보관 대신 하드웨어 지갑 사용을 권고했다. 유럽에서 비트와라(Bitwala) 앱을 통해 비트코인 지갑이 통합된 독일 은행 계좌를 개설할 수 있게 되었다는 소식도 전했다. 출연자 전망: 진행자 K-Dub는 비트코인 단기 방향은 9,000달러 지지 여부에 달려 있으며, 중장기적으로는 강세 추세 유지 가능성을 열어두되 레버리지 사용은 신중할 것을 권고했다.
다듬은 글
원문은 영어 자막이므로 영어로 다듬어 정리합니다.
What's going on, guys? It's K-Dub here with another episode of Crypto Zombies. Today is Saturday, so I hope you're having a great weekend so far. It's been another relatively boring day for Bitcoin. Looking at Coin360, we're up 0.17 percent. Ever since Bitcoin took that dump, we've basically been moving sideways. It's been a really boring 24 hours, but that usually means something big is about to happen, so let's dive in.
Also, don't forget we do our Alt Coin Earn OS giveaway every single Monday. Since today is Saturday, you still have two more days to comment on any video. And if you're not subscribed to the Crypto Zombies channel, what are you waiting for? We do this every single day, even on weekends and Sundays.
Bitcoin dominance is up to 69.2 percent, so we're still putting in higher Bitcoin dominance pretty much every day, which probably means it's taking some of that away from the altcoins. Looking at today's gainers, Dragon Coin is up again, but on only about 155,000 dollars of volume, so be careful with that one. Chain GX, Chain, Gentes, Status, Solve, OK, X Lambda, and Any Last OHS are all posting gains today.
On TradingView, Bitcoin dominance is even higher, around 71.72 percent. However, real volume is very, very low, at only about 414 million dollars. But it's the weekend, and we've noticed volume tends to pull back on weekends. We've seen some pretty big moves on weekends because of this lower volume, so are we about to see another big move? It's possible. Fear and Greed is at 20.
On this chart, we're currently being supported by the 9,000 to 9,354 dollar level. I won't go too deep into these levels since I covered them yesterday and the day before. If you want more on the levels we're watching, check out yesterday's video or the one before that.
Today, though, I have something very interesting, so stick around. We're still bouncing around in this region, and we're still looking for a potential breakout, a major move. We said the end of this month, and we really didn't get it. So now we're looking to reach the end of this wedge, maybe by the beginning to mid-September.
Right now we're sitting below the whole EMA ribbon on the daily chart, so I'd like to get above it. Once we get above it, we tend to really rock. You can see right here on August 1st, we basically skyrocketed. But that's not why we're here today. I want to talk about what's happening short term, and then about this indicator.
If we zoom in, it's really boring right now. Looking at what we're doing, maybe we're forming a bit of a bear pennant, something like this. This is just a super quick sketch to show you. So we might be looking for a move. Is it going to be explosive? If we do have a bear pennant, that would signal we're going lower, and I want to talk about that.
We have a very key support we're practically sitting on right now. We might just go upward and put in a kind of Bart Simpson shape, which is possible. But we know we've been supported by the 21-period exponential moving average, which is still sitting around 9,000 dollars. That's why I say 9,000 dollars is not out of the cards quite yet.
There's something else we need to talk about, and this blew my mind. This is from Willy Woo. If you follow Willy Woo on Twitter, you've got to check him out. He's one of my favorite analysts. He's using the 128-day moving average, and he says this is a great sign. It's been overheated until now. People familiar with Bitcoin's historical behavior know the 128-day line needs to be touched many times during a bull market to stay grounded, and it provides that confirmation. As long as we keep bouncing off it, it tells us we're still in a bull trend. He says these present good buying opportunities.
So does that mean you should run out and buy Bitcoin right now? Honestly, it's one of the best times in a long while. This isn't financial advice, but if you were looking to take a potential long position without using ridiculously high leverage, it could be a good opportunity.
But I want to point out the 2017 chart. The line starts in 2016, and look at this. We touched it 12 times during the 2017 bull run. Once we flipped and went below it and stayed below, it began acting as major resistance. During the bear market, it was touched seven times. And just recently we broke it again when we had that major blast-off.
The charts I'm looking at are slightly different, but long story short, we basically kissed it. We literally touched it and were supported, and we stayed above it for quite some time. So is this similar to what we've seen in the past? I think it is. Take the last time we touched it, back in March 2017. Bitcoin came above it, kissed it, and pumped 215 percent, then pulled back 40 percent. After that, Bitcoin continued its major rally.
What did we do just recently? As soon as we crossed above it, around March 16th on my chart, Bitcoin pumped 244 percent. Then we fell from the peak, kissed the line, and fell about 31 percent. So it looks like it's playing out exactly the way it has before. It seems to be providing support, and if we bounce off this, it signals to me that we're in full-scale bull mode.
But there's something negative. This isn't something only Dave the Wave has pointed out, but the MACD, as you can see right here, is starting to turn bearish. Dave says ignore the weekly MACD at your peril. This juggernaut has turned and points to an extended period downward. So could we be due for more downward price action? It's possible. Don't forget we could still go sideways for another couple of weeks before we really break out of the pennant. Even with what we're seeing on the 1-hour chart, we may have another little dip today. It's possible.
But I want to point out something that Odd Gems mentioned. I want to give this guy full credit, because he definitely found this. He says "mind-blowing," with a quick comparison video of Bitcoin in 2016 versus 2019. You can watch the video on his Twitter. I'll drop a link below. It has music in the background, and I'm not sure if it's copyrighted, so I'll just explain what he was saying.
We've already talked about the 21-period exponential moving average, the neon green line. It has supported us, and it's been the support throughout the entire bull market. But here's what everyone's really concerned about: the MACD is starting to put in its first red bars, and we're starting to see that bearish crossover.
Here's what's going to blow your mind. Let's go back to May 2016. If you look down here, the MACD started to turn around August 1st, but I'll show you where it happened and how it's exactly similar to what we're doing now. We bounced up and put in an 87 percent pump. Then we came down, touched the line, and dipped. But we didn't go any lower. Even though the MACD was printing red, we started going sideways. I don't need to tell you what happened next, but if we reset, we essentially went on a major bull run for the next year and a half. Keep that in mind, guys. Don't get fooled. I'm not telling you what to do, but be careful. We're very, very close right now. It's possible we come down, touch this 9,000 dollar level, and even though the MACD is printing red, it may just become an accumulation period before the major blast-off.
Let me know what you think. Do you think history will repeat itself? It doesn't always repeat, but it tends to rhyme. Let me know below. I'm curious.
One other thing, from Nunya Business: the 15-month volume-weighted moving average has shown that signals are always late but never wrong. Once again, the last time we went below it, we stayed above it for well over a year. We've had our 30 percent pullbacks, but the trajectory is definitely looking upward.
I want to keep this video short today, so I'll end quickly. What does Jack Dorsey's Twitter account hack mean for Bitcoin? Honestly, nothing directly. But I thought it was a good opportunity to bring up crypto safety. Keep your cryptocurrency safe. Don't keep your coins on exchanges. If the CEO of Twitter can get his account hacked, that shows that many centralized platforms, including exchanges like Binance or Bitget, are not places to leave your money. Always get a Ledger. I have links below if you don't know how to use a Ledger, and I have a video above you can check out. The Ledger and Nano X are virtually the same thing. Please keep your cryptocurrency safe and don't keep it on centralized exchanges any longer than you need to trade. If you're trading with leverage and keeping a position open, you don't have much choice. But if you're closing your position, get your coins off the exchange.
I don't want to end on a bad note, though. Residents of Europe can now use their smartphones to open a German bank account with an integrated Bitcoin wallet, thanks to a new app from the German blockchain company Bitwala. There have been somewhat negative reviews, so the integration may not be as smooth as people would hope, but it's always bumpy in the beginning. Customers in all 31 countries of the European Economic Area can access a German bank account and buy and sell Bitcoin. Bitwala charges a 1 percent trading fee, but it offers the account with a debit card for free, and lost cards can be cancelled directly in the app. That's pretty cool.
Before we go, I want to give a shout-out to Carlos, one of the Ledger Nano winners from a while ago. I might be confusing you with someone else, but he pointed out more Bitcoin ATMs popping up, like this kiosk. More people are seeing it and putting it out into the public, which justifies Bitcoin as something the average everyday person could transact in or potentially buy.
That's it for me today. I wanted to keep the video short because yesterday's video came out extremely late, so today's and yesterday's videos go hand in hand. If you haven't checked out yesterday's, I'll drop it above. Thank you so much for coming back to the channel, everyone who's been liking, subscribing, and commenting. You guys rock. Thanks to everyone using the referral links. They help support the channel and let me keep doing this for free. If you hate ads, you can download the Brave browser through the link below.
That's it for today. I hope you enjoyed this rapid-fire video. It's Saturday, it's a beautiful day, and summer is ending in August. Stop watching crypto videos and go enjoy your day. Thank you very much. If you haven't subscribed yet, I really appreciate it. If you want to join the Crypto Zombies Telegram group, we just talk crypto.
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