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reme Erica I'd be one make friends I'm just trying to sav you might think this whole market is hostage to the trade negotiations with China I mean that certainly Howell feels after today's bruising right with the Dow plunging 280 points STP coming point six six percent Nasdaq sinking point five five percent but that's just not true if the trade war we're really all important the averages we've never been able to surge to record levels over and over and over again as tense as negotiations may be trying to simply a much more issue than most people seem to realize so if that's the case what the heck just happened over the last four days why is the action suddenly become so frightening what does it mean for your future in your portfolio okay week ago we learned that the free traders in the Trump administration they're you gotta think about and Steve minutiae the Treasury secretary they had high hopes for deal with the Chinese they floated the idea that maybe China would be willing to open up its economy to American financial companies if the president would give them a stay of execution on his scheduled December 15th trade hikes but the hardliners in the White House know they warned us they warned that if the free traders kept talking up the prospects of a deal the Chinese government would start pushing for better terms that's been their style we've seen this before every time Trump seems willing to agree to something they try to move the goalposts still for a while the president seemed quite taken he's willing to side with the free traders he spoke positively about the deal and that allowed the stock market to surge again some people think it's manipulation no it's the way it is again we've seen this before stocks rallied in anticipation betrayed cease fire rug gets pulled out from we get back those games this time it's harder to tell who's at fault remember our government passed a bill imposing some sanctions on Chinese officials for their crackdown in Hong Kong pro-democracy and suddenly China was no longer content to ask from no more terrifies instead they wanted to rollback of the existing tariffs as a precondition for any deal even the so called phase 1 agreement that's exactly what the hardliners predicted would happen so the president struck back first import' wrote back those tariffs on steel imported from Argentina Brazil because they've devalue their currencies and more importantly any country we don't have terrace on is a country that China can use as a middleman to dump their steel on the US market depressing our prices second rather than commit to a bad deal Trump decide before a real roundhouse say it might be better to wait until after the election to make any agreement of the Chinese at all and that's what torpedoed the average of today but I've been telling you for ages that you shouldn't get your hopes up about a deal because the two sides are simply too far away from each other these are those seven deadly sins I talked about which is far more difficult than just buying some soy or making it easier to have a bank out of business in China the thing is despite how it's often portrayed in the media the Chinese Communist Party get this as news flash it's just as fallible as any other political organization at the end of the day they're human they make mistakes they make miss judgments they have a tendency to be overconfident this time I think the Chinese government really overplayed its hand they were betting the president Trump will be willing to make a deal thanks to the impeachment process no serious person in this country believes will be removed from office but it might hurt his reelection chances China was hoping he'd accept worse terms for a quick political victory before the election rolls rap well Trump he just shut that down I also think China's under estimating the common ground between Trump and most of his potential Democratic opponents on this very issue ok Biden would probably end the trade war but weren't Sanders they might be even tougher on the Chinese than Trump so the possibility of a stalemate on trade for the next year or even longer is a very real one don't forget they are very anti coal and China's decided hey we need all the coal plants we can get now all of this news broke over the last couple days first Wall Street seemed skeptical that Trump actually meant business maybe he wasn't really going at chyna when he put the kibosh on steal from Brazil and/or cheetah by the end of the session yesterday though there were rumblings that the trade talks were a little off track but this morning at 4 a.m.
the people I call the pajama traders as the people who trade in the pajamas and tent had turned out to be half-wits Mount Banks natives and charlatans well they started feeling bullish setting the futures higher giving the appearance that we might have a rebound then the president made that offhanded comment at 5:18 about how the trade talks might take a lot longer than anyone expects plus he flaunted plans for new tariffs against the French right in front of French president doubling the import duty oh and cheese wine fancy goods because France insists that it can tax American tech companies with impunity and that sent the futures cascading down only the whole market rolled over ok that's the history what happens now simple we have to remember that everything hinges on trade we always seem to forget that it's a common refrain from the mainstream media plenty of copies will do just fine if these tariffs stay in place forever and aside from China there are a lot of things that are going right including getting a lot of business out of China first United States is a service economy that's pretty darn close to full employment and when you get service and full employment you get a lot of sales and a lot of money housing second we have powerful secular trends that are going on here like digitisation will talk to Salesforce and Koopa later medical innovation one of those bikes that's being taken over the third of anything do with the trade work third wind tariffs co-op economic growth slows a bit and that causes a bond prices to rise when bond prices go up their yields go down and then money flows into higher dividend yielding stocks for some of our retailers are so powerful that they can squeeze even their Chinese overlords so to speak to keep prices down if you have enough scale the tariff simply don't matter go ask for Marco a story of course the Amazon they'll tell you finally when you look at the composition of the averages themselves the industrials are a lot less important than they used to be which means the tariffs can't hurt us as badly as you might think ironically China has been so great at destroying American manufacturing they've created a world where the United States doesn't have that much industry and for that matter industrial stock market capitalization left the losers in other words it hurts China a lot more than it hurts us and the longer these talks go on or drag on the more business you see taken out of China and going the Philippines go into Indonesia go into the vietnam go into Thailand go into India so then if that's the case why can't we shrug off these trade talks entirely mostly tech yep we have immense technology companies with tons of business and the People's Republic cream the largest company on earth Apple the idea that Apple stock could somehow crash if China decides to go after them has been a major theme of all but every one of these down days even the stock has rallied more than a hundred points since people started fretting about this but what happens here is that the negative surface first and they bring everything down then the stocks that don't have anything to do with China bounce back nevertheless much of tech keeps getting slammed and that's the real issue we face right now well I think that will eventually create fabulous discounts we're not totally there yet bottom line the market is slow to figure out the positives very fast to identify any negatives from the trade war which is why we had days like today and unfortunately I think we could have more pho that's if aux trea related pain before we're ready for some game and in New York ed yes hi Jim Happy Holidays to you and your family same to you ed what's I think I'm calling about your take on CBS stock I know that star board has taken a position there and I think any way that I feel that CBS is a well-run diversified company it's one that's not subject to the whims of trade pensions or tweets etc and at this point I'm wondering gee I've done very well it's been on the tear lately right no no should I take some chips off the table should maybe I should it was among my if not the large position for my chapel trust you can file what we do there by joining the actual ORS plus.com Club and we actually sold some today why did we sell something because it has been straight up and it was up yesterday again and you know what Bulls make money Bears make money well hogs sowait throw comes down and don't buy any here and if you want to do a little it's okay Marvin in Florida Marvin yes Marv you're up okay how you doing yeah doing well anymore well Boca Raton Florida okay like we're talking oh I love it it's uh I say it was like a wish that I left believe it or not I left Albuquerque New Mexico to come here and I loved it very healthy and I just heard by the way I just turned 80 hi so Burkert incredible gotta stop okay it's called canopy yeah and it a 3% today hey I'm working well look this stock is dramatically oversold its kind of huge amount of cash you know we did a piece we just said listen you gotta go into strength you gotta lighten up now why is that because the industry turns out to be wildly over supplies with cannabis now that doesn't mean these stocks can't go up and this one would be the consolidator but can we please see what who the CEO is going to be before we take any action and I'm glad you like Boca although Albuquerque but it seems like six or a half thousand frankly let's go to Donald in New York please Donald I shouldn't Happy Holidays shame I'm a long-term germinated dividend income investor most of my portfolio is made up of dividend aristocrat okay lately you know I'm not trying to I'm not trying to catch a falling knife but lately I'm finding is very difficult to resist that dividend of Macy's hitting with all that's 15 to 20 million dot 20 billion in real estate right well I think that's an over valuation the real estate the problem with Macy's the same problem I have immense limited partnerships if you don't have any growth no one cares about the dinner or some of these you know like the Annalee capitals so I Macy's has to demonstrate growth before I want to buy that dividend and they have not demonstrated grow so therefore they are in and I can't recommend the stock but I do want to go to Mike in Ohio please Mike oh yeah yeah we might come Cleveland Ohio I want your thoughts on you've been a great guy like ups I think they quietly David Abney as emerged as the person who spent the most money in order to be able to build up the infrastructure that's needed to be able to handle Cyber Monday Tuesday Wednesday Jersey boy whatever and I think it's the stock to own you know I've been a big FedEx backer but I've got a bully Abney has really done what's right and that that's the one okay remember not everything is hostage to the trade negotiations the lack of the deal is going to create some buying opportunities a lot of names I said that yesterday I said we got to come down but you know what we're getting there we're getting into the real issues tap the trails certainly is a real headwind for that sector particularly for Apple because this is the one everyone thinks has to crash it except for me remember I say own it don't trade it many time as the market continues it's the client it doesn't feel like it's time to throw in the towel okay not so fast don't make a move before you hear my take and sale source report have to close I'm going to crunching the numbers with the co-ceo fresh off the port the stocks getting skilled and therefore it's Cooper the way to play the cloud it's a cloud prints and it's become a little bit more of a corporate lately I'm not too sure that's MIT that is correct I'm going to come to CL gutsy and easy calm you
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