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Jeremy Grantham has warned that the SNP 500 is going to lose up to 60% of its value as he predicts a deep recession in the US in 2024 Grantham is a billionaire investor who made a name for himself with predicting the dotom bubble of 2000 and the housing bubble of 2007 making a fortune from both economic crisis he recently stated one should expect something pretty bad this time we wait to see if this follows the pattern of history or whether it is indeed that lovely creature a new paradigm but history is not kind to the new paradigm thinking gram is known for making dramatic predictions and he is calling today's stock market the biggest bubble he's ever seen in fact the famous bubble historian expects the S and p500 index value to fall to at least 3,000 and has even stated that he would not be surprised if it falls closer to 2,000 if the wheels really come off for context on the day of making this video the SNP 500 Index is valued at 5,146 so grantham's prediction of a decline of up to 60% would be the worst stock market crash since the Great Depression in 1929 when the Dow Jones Industrial dropped 89% from its peak in this video we will explore why Jeremy gram is convinced the S and p500 stock market is about to burst and what you can do to protect and grow your money during such economically challenging times understanding Market valuation so how can we determine if a market is overvalued or undervalued one of the most common ways to analyze whether the stock market is overvalued or undervalued is the Schiller PE ratio the Schiller PE ratio is generally applied to an entire stock market index most often the s and p500 and is believed to provide an accurate measure of the value of an entire stock index as it is calculated over a 10-year period it Smooths out the short-term earnings volatility experienced by many companies it also takes into account inflation which can make a company's profits look artificially high in the short term Schiller PE ratio to understand the Schiller PE ratio we must first understand the PE ratio the price earnings ratio or PE ratio is used to assess whether a single company is undervalued or overvalued by comparing its stock price to its earnings per share EPS for example if a stock is trading at $10 per share and its earnings per share are $1 then the stock has a PE of $10 divided by $1 which equals 10 this is a very helpful metric to compare the performance of companies and to identify ify whether or not an individual company is over or undervalued however the problem with the standard PE ratio is it will reflect short-term changes in a company's earnings performance that could have been caused by big macroeconomic events such as a market correction or recession and not because of the company having strong fundamentals it is therefore not such a reliable measure of a company's long-term value or of the strength or weakness of the market as a whole and that is why Robert Schiller a Yale University Professor proposed looking at inflation adjusted 10-year earnings data to minimize the impact on earnings of short-term economic events the formula for the Schiller PE ratio is current priced divided by average inflation adjusted 10year earnings per share Schiller PE ratio analysis a lower Schiller PE value suggests the potential for higher returns from equities over the long run whereas a high Shiller p value could suggest that a market correction might soon be on the horizon so how does this apply to the stock market right now well at the time of making this video the snp500 Schiller PE is 34.4 for context over more than 100 years the average and median Schiller PE ratio have been around 15 or 16 rising up significantly higher often before Market crashes this chart shows that the all-time high in the Schiller PE ratio was in December 1999 when the figure reached 44.99 just before the dot crash similarly it reached a previous high of 31.4 in 1929 just before Black Tuesday and the beginnings of the Great Depression it is for this reason that Grantham argues that corporate profits in the US are currently at unsustainable levels creating a bubble that will soon burst economic factors in addition to an overvalued stock market Grantham also believes a series of economic factors will cause the American economy to contract fairly soon for example the US government is currently maintaining $33 trillion of debt following recent efforts to stimulate the economy and faces the prospect of paying huge amounts of interest to service the debt in addition a period of increased interest rates is creating immense challenges in the real estate and mortgage markets as Consumer Debt becomes more and more expensive all this leads Grantham to believe that the upcoming market crash will be bigger than 2,000 because it includes real estate and bonds and that one did not investment strategies while this Outlook may seem alarming let's now look at some of the key strategies Jeremy Grantham suggests you apply to protect and grow your money during such economically challenging times strategy one invest in non Evas equities Grantham has stated to the extent you can avoid the US it's the most overpriced Market in his view the stock market bubble is mostly concentrated in the US and as a result investment opportunities do exist outside the US most notably in Japan and the Emerging Markets as both are considered cheap compared to the US Stock Market part 01 there are a few different ways to access foreign stocks including buying them directly in a global account offered by Brokers such as Fidelity or interactive brokers however direct foreign investing comes with added costs tax implications and currency conversion issues meaning it isn't always the best method to invest abroad for the average investor instead you could consider investing in exchang traded funds ETFs that will give you exposure to International markets without some of the complications of direct foreign investing part 02 ETFs invest in a portfolio of stocks or bonds designed to mimic the composition and performance of a financial market index unlike index funds you can buy and sell ETF shares just like individual stocks during the trading day which makes ETFs very flexible ETFs will typically let you target the exact geographies you want and will cover a wide variety of investment ment categories and markets allowing you to manage some of the additional risk that comes with investing abroad part 03 good examples of ETFs that invest in a wide range of markets excluding the US are vxus the Vanguard Total International stock ETF Vu the Vanguard ftse all World xus ETF and acwx the ishares msci acwi and X ETF all three ETFs invest in a wide range of countries including Japan the UK China Canada France Switzerland India Germany
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