저자: JimRogers/발언영상진행자미상 · 외국인
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결론: 짐 로저스는 큰 매도세(생애 최대 하락장)가 올 수 있다고 경고했지만 시점은 올해 말~내년 초로 흐리게 말했고, 당분간 미국·아시아 주식은 상승할 것으로 봄. [짐 로저스 발언] 대폭락의 원인은 부채이며, 2008~2009년 위기보다 부채가 더 크게 늘었다고 주장. 연준 대차대조표는 그 이후 약 500% 증가했다고 언급. [짐 로저스 발언] 하락은 하루아침에 오지 않으며, 시장은 얼마 동안 더 오를 것이라고 봄. 미국 주식과 아시아 주식 모두 낙관적이라고 밝힘. [영상 진행자 분석] 마진 부채(신용거래 융자)가 최근 몇 년간 급증했고, 과거 이 지표가 크게 오르면 시장 폭락이 뒤따랐다고 설명. [영상 진행자 분석] UBS 자료를 인용해 전 세계 일부 도시(런던 포함)의 부동산 가격이 거품 구간에 들어섰다고 언급. [기술적 분석 - 다우·S&P500] 두 지수는 여전히 200일 이동평균선 위에 있어 상승 추세 유지. 다만 약 2580 수준 지지선을 세 번 테스트하고 있어 반복 테스트 후 이탈 가능성이 높아졌다고 봄. [기술적 분석 - 나스닥100] 헤드앤숄더 천장 패턴이 형성 중이며, 7200 상향 돌파 시 패턴 무효, 하락 시 패턴 완성 가능. [군중 심리] 시장 대다수가 상승을 기대할 때 역발상이 필요하다는 주장. 로저스가 상승 가능성을 말한 것 역시 대중의 시각을 따르기 어려운 심리 때문일 수 있다고 해석. 한 시장 분석가가 신고점 도달을 '높은 확신'이라고 한 점을 과신의 신호로 경계. [리스크] 지지선 이탈 시 하락 가능성이 커지나, 현재는 상승 추세가 우세하다는 점을 인정. 2018년 7월 기준 비트코인은 연초 대비 큰 폭 하락한 상태로 언급됨. [출연자 전망] 짐 로저스: 단기 상승 지속, 중기 이후 대폭락 가능성. 영상 진행자: 조심스러운 약세 쪽 견해.
다듬은 글
and in fact in this interview which was recorded only about a couple of weeks ago very recently he makes some very interesting and shocking predictions about the markets which you want to pay attention to and I'm gonna explain to you why they're announced three reasons we need to be concerned about what's happening on the stock markets and how that relates also to Bitcoin as well so let me go ahead and play the clip for you first you say that a huge sell-off is coming the biggest in my lifetime so when is it coming first of all that's the first question when you know crashes don't happen in one day the market is going to go up for a while I'm still optimistic about the US stock market for a while and asian stock markets it'll go up and sometimes later this year and next the decline will start in but it doesn't happen in a day and Stuart when I said it's gonna be the biggest market downturn in my lifetime I mean that's not so strange to me 2008 we had a problem because of too much debt Stuart as you well know the debt is skyrocketed since 2008 yes I have to say it's gonna be worse than my lifetime how could it not be so you're a debt bomb guy you're you're saying look the crash is coming the huge sell-off is coming and it's because of debt so you say I asked you when and you kind of hedged a little maybe late this year early next year and then I asked that why and you say it's the DEP on so that's your scenario here yes I mean Stuart do you remember 2008 and 2009 that was because of gigantic debt it's getting worse it's much worse now the Federal Reserve Alone's balance sheet is up 500 percent since then by the way Janet Yellen says we're never going to have another bear market in our lifetime so maybe you shouldn't listen to me alright guys so let's examine and unpack what Jim Rogers just said in that interview he is absolutely right the levels of debt have tremendously increased for example take a look at this chart of margin debt how it's skyrocketed in the last few years in fact margin that in case you're not aware is the amount of money people borrow to put into the stock market and you can see whenever it's skyrocketed whenever has risen extremely high it has led to market crashes as well now take a look at this this is an important piece of research from UBS management now UBS found according to their data that certain cities a lot of cities actually around the world are reaching bubble and overvalue territory when it comes to property and real estate property prices around the world certain cities have reached bubble territory including London and let's go and take a look at this particular chart that I'm showing to you here this is the chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average one of the key stock market indices in America and as you can see here again Jim Rogers is absolutely right that the trend in the stock market's still remains to the upside we still remain in an upward trend for one thing the stock markets are still above their 200 moving average that's the Green Line you see there and as long as we're above the 200 moving average the bias is still towards a bull market rather than a bear market but here's something we do need to remind ourselves of which is that it is true that a trend is your friend but the actual phrase is the trend is your friend until the end because every trend in the market eventually does come to an end now what interested me in that interview was that previously Jim Rogers had been bearish on the stock markets and it's only quite recently that I've noticed he's taking a more bullish stance on the stock market so in that interview you'll notice he said look I'm still looking for the stock markets to continue rising now why did he say that and I found something very interesting here which I want to bring to your attention this is the chart of the sentiments cycle as markets go up and down by the way this sentiment cycle can apply to anything not just stock markets but also other markets too what this chart tells you is how people think as markets are going up and as they're going down when prices are going up especially when we're in bubble territory in a very huge bull market at this point anyone who goes against the trend of the market anyone who says look I'm against this market I don't think it's gonna go much further higher in other words if you're a contrarian you will get ridiculed the same thing happens in Reverse when markets drop or crash right about the bottom or near the bottom anyone who gets bullish on the market who says hey look I'm looking to buy this market at this point they also get ridiculed and they get trashed again because what they're doing is going against the majority opinion so remember guys one of the things we have to remember is that as contrarians we have to be brave we have to be brave enough to go against the majority of people out there because the majority of people are usually on the wrong side of the market a good example is what happened to Bitcoin about December of last year when you may remember Bitcoin hit about twenty thousand dollars at that time anyone who went against the majority opinion and the majority opinion was hey Bitcoin is probably gonna go to fifty or hundred thousand dollars anyone who went against the majority against the herd would have been called a fool an idiot and of course there would have been ridiculed in fact listen to what Jim Rogers himself says about the danger of following majority opinion wait what I've learned in like this normally when everybody is thinking the same way you should start at least thinking hey wait a minute cannot be right if everybody's thinking the same way and it nearly always is that when everybody's thinking the same way somebody's not thinking and you should at least examine the other side so you'll notice that in the interview between Jim Rogers and the presenter there that he actually was saying hey you know what I'm expecting that stock market price is gonna continue going up because the trend is still to the upside and I think the reason why Rogers said that is because he's a human being just like the rest of us he does not want to be ridiculed in case the markets prove him wrong and there's something else I want to mention here as well one of the major market analysts that I respect he recently said that there is now a high degree of certainty and on quoting he said there's a high degree of certainty that the stock markets are now gonna make new highs when I heard that alarm bells were ringing in my ears because he did not use the words heidegger probability he used the words high degree of certainty now why did he say certainty and not probability because I think that he is becoming very confident perhaps overconfident that the markets gonna make new highs and guess what guys whenever anyone says there is a high degree of certainty that something's gonna happen in the markets be very afraid and be very cautious because that's usually about the time the markets about to turn and do the exact opposite because if someone thinks there's a high degree of certainty something that happened then he is not the only one and there's another reason I want to show you here which is also important you see the Dow just as you can see in the last few months has been making three tests of this level if I could just draw a line here you'll see what I mean as you can see so the Dow here has been testing this level now not just once but twice three times okay now why is that important I'll explain that in just a few moments let me show you also what's happening on the S&P 500 the other major market index you will see that the S&P also has been doing the exact same thing it's now testing this level around around about 25 80 like you'll see it's testing this level again not not once not twice but three times and in fact also you will notice that the S&P has been testing this 200 moving average here that green line you see in my chart is testing a level once twice three times now why is that significant because there's an interesting theory in chart analysis that the more often price tests a key level the more often the price comes to a certain level the more likely it is it's gonna break it okay let me just repeat that because it's so important the more times a market comes to test the key level in this case the 2580 level here the more likely it is that the market is gonna go and break that level potentially soon in the next few months so I think the fact that the stock markets both the SP and the Dow are now testing this support level around 2589 P and a corresponding level on the down the more times they're testing this level the more likely it is that the markets are soon gonna come down and break that level if you just bring this chart a little bit to the right go to the left I should say I think now the probability is more that we're gonna soon potentially in the next few months break this level all right and I guess you're wondering is that a big deal absolutely it's a big deal because there's also another theory in technical analysis of what's called breaking market structure and by the way it isn't just the S&P here that worries me it's also what's happening on the Nasdaq let me bring the chart off the Nasdaq so you can see for yourself okay here's the Nasdaq okay now take a look at an interesting pattern is developing here on the Nasdaq what you see here is what's called in chart analysis as the head and shoulder reversal pattern and the trigger for a reversal occurs when that happens when the price breaks that neckline so let me show you that short of the Nasdaq so this is the Nasdaq 100 now the pattern is not yet complete but we can see something emerging here let me just show you this you'll see this is potentially the head this is the left shoulder and likely this is the right shoulder it is true that at the moment the way things are shaping up on the Nasdaq 100 there is a sort of head and shoulder pattern a bearish pattern developing here now if the Nasdaq manages to break out and make new highs above 70 200 then that pattern is void its invalid on the other hand if the Nasdaq sees more weakness and if we perhaps fall further then this pattern begins to form completion so going back to a short the S&P bottom line is guys that as long as we're above this support level as long as the stock markets continue to remain above 25 80 yes the path of least resistance is to the upside and Jim Rogers is right the trend is your friend however based on everything I'm looking at here the fact that we're testing these key levels the fact that so many market analysts are now jumping on the bandwagon that we're gonna make new highs that has me worried that has me cautious and a personal thing that Jim Rogers will be proven correct this year that we're potentially heading for lower levels on the major stock market
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