저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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결론: 투자 성공은 사업을 이해하는 능력과 역경 대응력에 달려 있으며, 상장 주식 중심 장기 투자를 권한다. 핵심 주장: 좋은 사업과 나쁜 사업을 구분하는 능력이 중요하며, 이를 위해 스타트업 등에서 직접 일해보는 것을 추천한다. 실패와 역경: 대부분의 성공한 부자들은 큰 실패를 겪었으며, 성공 여부는 성공을 다루는 방식보다 역경을 다루는 방식에 좌우된다. 복리 투자: 연 100 수익이 아니라 10~15 정도의 매력적인 수익률을 장기간 유지하면 부가 크게 증가한다. 투자 방식: 리스크가 큰 투자를 피하려면 상장기업 주식에 투자하는 것이 낫다. 상장사는 더 안정적이고 주식은 유동성이 있어 매도가 가능하다. 경영 원칙: 극단적 솔직함(extreme candor)을 강조하며, 이사회에서도 CEO에게 사실을 직접 말해야 한다고 본다. 역발상 투자: 최고의 투자는 자신이 옳고 남들이 틀렸다고 확신하는 것이며, 금융위기 때 파산 직전 쇼핑몰 회사 주식을 주당 몇 센트에 매수해 큰 수익을 낸 사례를 든다. 해당 주식은 최초 투자 대비 약 90배 상승했다. 학습 방법: 하버드 경영대학원 재학 시절 투자 강의가 없어 피델리티 계좌로 직접 학습했으며, 실제 자금으로 투자하며 독학했다. 책, 연차보고서 독해, 소액 포트폴리오 운용으로 투자를 배울 수 있다고 설명한다. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산의 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
investing business you can learn by reading you know read everything warren buffett's ever written watch every youtube video he's ever appeared in that's a great way to learn about investing but investing is more than just the way to really understand investing is to understand a business and one of the most important skills you need as an investor is just distinguishing between a great business a good business a fair business and a bad business and one way to get a sense of the quality of a business is going to work for one so the recommendation i give to people graduating from business schools these days is this is the greatest time in history to work for a startup there's lots of incredibly interesting businesses being formed if you can be one of the early employees you're going to learn a lot about how a business works how to make payroll how to market your product how to design something and those skills i think are invaluable first of all you might even find it really interesting you might have joined the next facebook so that's one thing even if the business fails you'll learn a ton from that i think that's the best experience you can get ultimately to be a good fundamental investor the most successful people in the world i know very few of them that haven't had a major failure you know if you read through the uh they're not the financially most successful people if you read through the forbes billionaire list and you read their stories you know they've had failed businesses and they've lost everything and they've hung on the you know they've almost died holding on to the ledge so there are lots of examples of people who had huge adversity i think it's how you deal with adversity that determines your ultimate success as opposed to how you deal with success that determines your ultimate success you don't need to make 100 a year to have a fortune you just need to invest at an attractive return 10 15 over a long period of time your money grows very significantly so how do you avoid the riskiest investments i would my advice would be to invest in public security invest in listed companies companies that trade on the stock market why because those businesses are tend to be more established they have to meet certain hurdles before they go public the stocks are liquid so you can change your mind if you want to sell my approach in business in my personal life in a management role is extreme candor and i think that if you live that way you know you'll run the risk of offending various people over time but you'll have much better relationships because you know if you tell people the truth first of all it's not typical you know a lot of people uh in the interest of politeness or fear of confrontation or it's just uncomfortable don't speak the truth and that goes for people on boards lots of examples of super talented people sitting around the room as an institution is failing think of all the banks during the crisis where people were not willing to confront the ceo so i'm willing to confront the ceo uh and uh but i'm completely candid with him about his successes and his failures testing is about the best investments are the ones where we are the confident we're right and everyone else is wrong if you're arrogant in investing you're gonna get killed right if you're not confident you'll never make an investment all right so you have to do a sufficient amount of work to be confident enough to have the conviction do something that's contrarian right we bought the stock of a uh a soon-to-be bankrupt retailer i'm sorry a shopping mall company during the financial crisis uh at pennies per share you have to be willing to look silly when you do something like that uh general growth stocks up 90 fold since our original investment um you know on that's we had confidence maybe bill thought it was arrogant to believe that we could be successful in turning around went to business school to learn how to be a good investor and i learned the first rule of investing which is you do your due diligence before you wire in your your money and uh when i got to hbs i actually opened the course catalog for the first time and there wasn't a class on investing now there were classes on accounting or classes on finance so i decided i had to develop my own little self-study program and i wanted to uh so i opened a fidelity brokerage account i said this i had some money i'd made in the real estate brokerage business this was my tuition uh in the investment business and it was about a year of tuition and if i lost it it was as if i had gone to business school for you know two years but paid for three so i figured it wasn't like the the inverse of the oxford uh one plus one program but um and uh you know i the first stock i bought went up and i said okay i found what i want to do a few things you can really learn on your own you can learn investing by reading books by reading annual reports by having a you can have a portfolio and invest 100 and you can and you can learn the business unlike many other businesses which require a lot more
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