저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
달러는 다른 통화들도 똑같이 나빠서 상대적으로 강세가 유지된다는 주장. 글로벌 성장은 2018~2019년 이후 둔화됐고 평균 가계는 생활비 상승으로 2018~2019년보다 덜 부유해졌다고 진단. 정부 적자와 과도한 화폐 발행이 통화 가치를 훼손하며, 세금 인상·지출 삭감·디폴트가 모두 정치적으로 어렵기 때문에 결국 화폐 발행(인플레이션을 통한 과세)을 택한다고 주장. 경기순환(45~60년) 관점에서 1980~81년 이후 금리·인플레 하락 흐름을 설명하며, 2020년 8월 저금리는 중앙은행 화폐 발행이 만든 인위적 수준이라고 봄. 미디어가 정부 정책을 옹호하는 방향으로 경제를 왜곡해 보도한다고 비판. 영상 내 자산별 가격 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
In my opinion, the dollar as a currency is almost doomed. But other currencies are also doomed. That's the beauty of it. The dollar exists and is a strong currency as long as others are just as bad or worse. I think it's not just about stocks, it's about a major inflection point in asset markets, and inflation is still around 60 80 100%.
The dollar remains strong not because it is flawless, but because other currencies are in equally bad or worse shape. This creates a scenario where the dominance of the dollar persists amid global currency problems. Markets are at a crucial turning point, with asset values under pressure and inflation rates still extremely high, ranging from 60% to 100%.
ING analysts predict that with the onset of a recession in the US next year, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 150 basis points, which will reduce the attractiveness of US assets and push investors towards other undervalued currencies. Marc Faber, a Swiss investor, publisher, and financial commentator best known for his controversial market views and economic forecasts, explains that global growth has slowed since 2018 and 2019, and most economic indicators are now weaker than before .
The average family is worse off today due to the cost of living rising faster than wage growth . Those with cash, such as businesses in cash-dependent sectors, benefit from higher interest rates, while those with debt face difficulties due to rising borrowing costs. The economy is complex, made up of different households, some of which have prospered thanks to policies such as money printing, while others are struggling.
The media often distorts the narrative by emphasizing the positive economic views of those in better positions and aligning them with government programs , especially in the US, while failing to reflect the hardships of ordinary people. Discussions about the economy or markets should consider specific sectors and conditions, rather than oversimplifying the entire landscape.
Over the past 5 years, the global economy has experienced a decline in living standards in most countries, especially in Western democracies such as France, England, and Germany. While there may be exceptions, such as in India, where living standards may have improved, the typical family in many Western countries has experienced a decline in living standards.
While we're introducing video snippets, please take a moment to like this video, subscribe to the channel, and turn on the notification bell to instantly receive notifications every time we upload a video. Thank you for your support and enjoy the video . If I look at the gross rates around the world, they have all clearly slowed down.
And if we look at 2018, 2019, the years before and today, most of the economic indicators that I follow are lower than in 2019, 2019. And for the typical family in the world, there are exceptions, but the average family is less wealthy than in 2018, 2019 , because the cost of living has increased more than salaries.
And then we also have to distinguish whether people have cash or whether they owe money. For people who have cash, like in my business, a lot of cash is needed in the brokerage industry. Uh , conditions are better now because interest rates have increased. Three years ago, interest rates were almost zero.
So that time was very bad for cash holders, deposit holders, whereas now it is relatively good. Other people have large loans, you know, consumer loans, etc., they are suffering from rising interest rates. Whenever someone asks or talks about the economy, we have to understand that the economy is very complex and made up of millions of households, and you can have households that are better off because of money printing, and these are the people who appear on CNBC and on Fox News and in the mainstream media, and then they tell you how great the economy is, and all of these media outlets.
They will not interview ordinary people on the street who are struggling to survive. So the media distorts views, and the media is very much saying that the Biden administration is very pro-government in America. So they will do everything possible to keep the Biden administration in power. They are all afraid of Trump and so on.
So when we talk about the economy, talking in generalities isn't very helpful. We need to really pay attention to specific sectors. It's like being asked if I'm bullish or bearish on stocks. Well , some stocks will rise, some will fall, and maybe everything will fall, but some will fall less than others.
So it's much more complicated than the media makes it out to be, because the media knows that the typical citizen has young people who have very short attention spans, they like tick-tock, tick-tock, fast, fast , fast, and, uh, the social sciences are very, very complicated, including economics. The world economy, if we measure the standard of living, then the standard of living in most countries, there are some exceptions, maybe in India the standard of living of people has increased in the last 5 years, most likely, but in most other Western, in Western countries, Western democracies, France, England, Germany, definitely, definitely, it's guaranteed, definitely in these countries the standard of living of the average family , the typical family, has decreased.
Farber discusses the consequences of government overspending, highlighting how persistent deficits can hurt the value of a country's currency. He outlines three problem-solving solutions. Tax increases, which are politically unpopular, cuts in government spending, which could lead to social unrest, and debt defaults, which would cause massive financial chaos both domestically and internationally .
Historically, governments have often chosen to print money as a solution, effectively taxing the population through inflation. However, economist and financial commentator Peter Schiff often warns about the dangers of excessive money printing, linking it to inflation and economic bubbles. Meanwhile, Nouriel Roubini also discusses how continuous money printing by central banks can lead to serious economic downturns.
Marc Faber explains that economic cycles include periods of rise and fall in inflation, interest rates, and commodity prices, which typically last 45 to 60 years. Since the last peak in inflation and commodity prices in 1981, inflation and interest rates have generally been declining, with interest rates reaching a low around August 2020 .
This artificially low level of interest rates was largely achieved through money printing by central banks , which distorted these natural economic cycles. Let's get back to the interview. The national debt is growing very quickly. When the government spends more money than it collects in taxes, you can't do that all the time without causing some damage to the value of your currency.
This is the first conclusion. In other words, I wouldn't want to think that the dollar will remain strong. It is likely that the dollar will weaken. Secondly, there is a problem. If the government spends more than it collects, uh, the government can go to the people and say, "Look , we're spending too much, we're collecting too little, we need to raise taxes." Show me a politician in the world who would get elected if he went to the people and said we need to raise taxes.
The second solution is for the government to go to the people and say, "We spent too much." Uh, we have to make cuts, and we'll start with the proposals from police officers, firefighters, and war veterans. We will cut their benefits by 30%. I would like to see a revolution that will follow economic policy measures.
The third way , of course, is default. The financial system owns bonds issued by the government. So you have insurance companies, they own these bonds. You have pension funds. You have individuals and mutual funds. If the government decides to declare default, I tell you, it's incredibly difficult. Also an international situation, as many foreign countries own a significant portion of the US debt.
Every government throughout history has resorted to one policy measure in this situation of deficit, namely printing money. Every government throughout history has taken the simplest measures . It's a tax, but people don't realize it's a tax. The government can say, “Well, we have inflation. It's because of Putin.
"It's because of China, Xi Jinping." It's because of the evil Iranians. " And, and, and they have a whole catalog of excuses for inflation, except for one problem, which is that the government is overspending , and that the government, through its agent, the central bank, is printing money." This causes inflation; Neither Putin nor anyone else abroad is causing inflation on their own.
But they can't go to the people and say, " Well, you know, we're a failed government, so we have inflation." “We have cycles of accelerating inflation , and then cycles of deflation or disinflation, and we have , uh, cycles of interest rates rising and falling, commodity prices rising and falling. These cycles last from 45 to 60 years.
These are long cycles. And again, because of the printing of money, many things have become distorted. But overall, the last peak of the cycle for commodities and inflation was in 1980-81. Since then, inflation has been falling and interest rates have been falling and bottoming out . Interest rates, which peaked in September ’81, bottomed out around , say, August 2020 at an artificially low level.
The level of interest rates was achieved through the printing of money by central banks . The global economy faces significant challenges as governments grapple with the consequences of overspending, distorted economic cycles, and declining living standards. To navigate these complexities, it is important to have a nuanced understanding of specific economic conditions and sectors, rather than oversimplifying the broader landscape.
Why does the dollar remain strong despite global economic challenges and declining living standards in many countries? Share your thoughts in the comments section below. Also, make sure you like this video, subscribe to the channel, and turn on post notifications to see more similar videos. Until the next meeting.
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