저자: Mary · 외국인
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엔비디아는 벤더 파이낸싱(순환금융)으로 수요가 부풀려졌을 가능성이 있다는 Michael Burry의 경고를 소개하며, 8월 26일 실적 발표가 AI 수요의 실체를 가를 것이라 봄. 일봉상 225 돌파 여부를 관건으로 보고 상방 목표 246·260~261·280~292, 하방 지지 216·213·206·196·190~189를 제시함. 4시간봉 기준 223 이탈 시 손절 기준 제시.
다듬은 글
Good evening to all traders. Welcome back to Technicals with Miss Mary. If you are new to this channel , please don't forget to hit the like button , comment below, and subscribe . If you are older, as always, my gratitude to all of you and thank you for your continued support . Today, let's talk about Nvidia .
Nvidia is doing a process called ' circular financing' . Let me explain what Nvidia Circular Financing is very simply. Nvidia is looking for a customer . Nvidia helps that customer get a loan through institutions like BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and Apollo . The customer then uses the borrowed money to purchase Nvidia chips .
Then Nvidia, sorry, rents those chips back from the same customer , one of which is Corvette. This means that Nvidia is now becoming both a vendor and a client at the same time . So it's basically creating its own demand , right? That's why Michael Burry says this is not a sign of strength, but a sign of despair .
Why? Because the demand seems higher than it really is . Nvidia is funding its own sales . This is reminiscent of the old tech bubbles when Cisco used a similar method in 2000 . This is called the 'vendor financing financial loop', and it can end very badly . So debt is increasing exponentially in AI sectors .
Large companies are borrowing heavily, and the cost of insuring Nvidia's debt is also rising. Barry believes Nvidia is doing this to protect its 20 basis point margin growth . Barry's opinion is very simple . He said that Nvidia's circular financing is creating fake demand and that companies are trying too hard.
They are working hard to keep the AI boom alive . That's why he believes it's not a sign of strength, but a warning sign . So, this is the real question. Is Nvidia really bullish or is it a fake thing created by their financial engineering ? With earnings results coming up on August 26th, it will be clear whether Nvidia's AI demand is real or if this circular financing loop is starting to fray.
Now, let 's look at your chart. This is the weekly chart for Nvidia. At the moment , this candle is not yet complete on the weekly chart . This is a daily chart. As we consolidated for 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 days, an indecisive candle formed on the daily chart, indicating some kind of breakout . What I don't like about this candle is that if this is a true breakout , there should at least be high volume to prove that it is a structural breakout .
There is a buy signal from the MACD and a bullish crossover in the RSI on the weekly chart . However, if this is a true breakout for Nvidia, this will be your entry point . The 225 level should be retained for your profits . This will be your intraday trade . After taking an entry above 225, your first take profit is at 229, and then the second is from 232 to 236 .
Now the real breakout of this chart is above 237. If we break out above 236.26 , 237 would be my entry for a long position . I will choose either shares or options and my target will be at 246, the second target at 260. However, if we break out above 236, the actual target will be between 260 to 261 .
If the momentum continues, you can expect 280 to 292. This is for a bullish scenario . Now let 's look at the downside, let's take a look at the daily chart. As we mentioned earlier , Nvidia has been consolidating for some time . If we open below 225 tomorrow , there is a possibility of an Evening Star pattern forming, which could indicate an early reversal to the downside.
216 is going to be an important point for Nvidia . We can use the 217 to 216 level as support . When we gap up , the lower body of that candle acts as support. So there will be a key support level for Nvidia between 217-216 . If it falls below that, there is a small gap up to 213. Yes? We have support.
If it falls below 216, you will have a support level at 214 to 213. This will compensate for the downside gap up to 213 . Now, if the downside is likely to continue, and if it falls below 213, there is a high chance of a test of 206. The next support will be between 206 and 208 . Okay. So we have support here at 216.
If it falls below 216, there is a possibility of closing the gap to 213. If we cannot hold 213 , there is a high possibility of testing the 208 to 206 level . If anything falls below 206 , we will retest around 202, which is the top of this wick. To the lower wick that ranges from 199 to 196. Okay. But 196 would be bearish, wouldn't it ?
The possibility of continuation from 196 is from 194 to retesting the 190-189 support levels. That is a bearish situation now. Okay. So let's use any EMA. Look at where your 200 moving average is. Okay. That 200 moving average is at around 193. That is a little over 194. So this is very important. So if it falls below 200 , there is a high chance of a retest of the 190-189 levels again .
Okay. Now looking at the 4 hour chart , for those who took the call on Nvidia, it is crucial that it stays above 223 every day . That will be your stop-loss , because why not? If anything falls below 223, your delta loses its value . It could retest 219 and go up to the 216-217 support level . Then comes the 50 moving average on the 4-hour chart .
And we also have a gap from 216 to 213 . So that would be an easy gap to fall into . Okay. So I hope this is useful for you . As always, I appreciate you all and always be kind, be patient, and wish all your trades to be in profit . See you again tomorrow. Good night.
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