저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 연준 긴축 기대 완화로 단기 반등 가능성은 있으나, 지속성은 6월 초 발표될 인플레이션 지표에 달려 있어 확정하기 어렵다. [비트코인 매도 압력 해소] 루나 재단이 5월 초 약 8만 1천 BTC를 매도하며 압력이 컸으나, 100 BTC 미만 소액 보유자 물량이 약 8만 724 BTC 늘어 저점 매수가 이뤄진 것으로 해석했다. [연준과 금리] 금리 인상이 시장의 중력으로 작용했고, 연준 기준금리는 0.75~1%다. 6월·7월 50bp 인상 후 약 2%에서 멈출 가능성이 언급됐다. [시장 기대 변화] 10년물 브레이크이븐 인플레이션 기대치가 4월 말 고점 이후 하락했고, 회사채 스프레드도 35~40일 전후로 축소되어 자본비용 우려가 완화되는 중이라고 봤다. [단기 반등 vs 약세장 반등] 시장 반등이 지속될지 아니면 1~2주짜리 데드캣 바운스인지는 금요일 인플레이션 발표 결과에 달려 있다. 물가 상승과 성장 둔화가 완만하면 연준이 긴축 속도를 줄여 시장이 크게 오를 수 있다고 봤다. [비트코인 전망] 진행자는 향후 1~2개월간 비트코인 도미넌스가 상승하고 자금이 알트코인에서 비트코인으로 이동할 것으로 예상했다. 이는 진행자 개인 견해다. [이더리움 머지] 로프스텐 테스트넷이 지분증명 전환 리허설에 들어갔고, 머지는 6월 8일경으로 예상된다. 이후 세폴리아 전환과 메인넷 전환이 이어진다. [스텔라 루멘] 머니그램이 스텔라 블록체인 기반 송금 플랫폼을 추진하며 USDC 송금 서비스를 제공하고, 엘살바도르 디지털 지갑 협력도 논의 중이다. [폴카닷] 문빔이 리도 리퀴드 스테이킹을 도입해 이더리움과 폴카닷 간 상호운용성을 강화한다. [행사 안내] 6월 7~8일 텍사스 데센트럴 NFT 크립토 컨퍼런스 참석 안내가 있었다.
다듬은 글
so it looks like we are set up for potentially a decent little rally here the problem is is it a rally that is sustainable or is it a rally that's basically what we call a dead cat bounce or a bear Market rally yes welcome back everybody to altcoin daily my name's Austin the Bitcoin price is back well actually zooming in after nine straight weeks to the downside it's just nice to see some life now the three questions that I want to answer for you today is what caused this pop is this sustainable I.E was this is this just a dead cat bounce and the original downwards pressure that caused this what was that downwards pressure again and has this subsided check the time stamps down below I will play you the full chamoth clip his perspective on this Market but first off why has the cell pressure for Bitcoin subsided and what was some of that cell pressure to begin with well obviously the Luna Foundation guard held a lot of Bitcoin in their reserves and during the collapse the Luna triggered sell-off in early May a total of 80 081 BTC were liquidated by the Luna Foundation guard interestingly the volume of Supply held by entities under 100 Bitcoin has since increased by 80 724 BTC this shows a transfer from the Luna Foundation guard to less than 100 BTC hotlers so there was many many people who bought when there was blood in the streets here is the chart as you can see the Luna sell-off started around here bitcoin's price went down and there are four different lines this blue line Green Line purple line you can see right here and pink line after this sell-off just exploded they went up those lines represent the entities with under 100 BTC it's uh the light blue from 0.01 to 0.1 then 0.1 to 1 1 to 10 and then 10 to 100.
this is revealing the dip is being bought up this cell pressure is being alleviated now of course every buyer has a seller but what this reflects is a change in ownership new owners with new cost basis and a different strategy and approach it's not the wallet that matters but the conviction of the owner with the keys and that's true but let's even dig deeper chamath palihapatia billionaire investor owner of the Warriors and bestie on the all-in podcast believes things have changed and conviction for all markets at least in the short term is getting better and why is that what's changed well probably the biggest reason that we saw such suppression for Bitcoin as well as all markets is because of the Federal Reserve and their actions I.E raising interest rates interest rates bring gravity to markets we've had a few different rate hikes thus far this year with the current fed funds rate between 0.75 and 1 and Walter moth does believe though we might see two more in June and July taking us up to around two percent what the FED is doing is working I.E tapering the inflation rate and we can see what was once higher in March of this year and April of this year has turned has started to turn listen to this about two minute clip of chamoth explaining why things may have changed for all markets why we're seeing this pop and is this sustainable or is this just a dead cat bounce watch this we still had some amount of rate uncertainty from the FED I think people weren't sure how aggressively they were going to hike but by early this week it was pretty clear there's going to be two 50-point hikes one in June and one in July and then effectively a pause because then the FED funds rate will be at around two percent and everything from there will probably be path and data dependent okay that's effectively what they said now I think the the markets had actually already started to see that writing on the wall so if you go back to you know one of our favorite measures which is the 10-year break even it's effectively rolled over which meant that you know which means that from the highs in sort of late April it started to come down which says that you know they were thinking that you know the inflation was not going to be as bad in the back half of the year and then the second is that corporate credit which is really what matters in some ways to the FED because that's where they can intervene what is the spread above treasuries that a company can issue debt when it goes crazy and it goes up it means oh no the cost of capital is going up that's going to be hard for companies to raise money they may have to lay people off they may need to get into cost cutting mode right that's what goes through everybody's mind but that's also now about 35 and 40 days rolled over which means that the Gap has started to shrink you know between the U.S treasury price and what you know decent corporates can can issue debt at so it looks like we are set up for potentially a decent little rally here the problem is is it a rally that is sustainable or is it a rally that's basically what we call a dead cat bounce or a bear Market rally where you know you just get some one or two weeks of relief before the thing Spears down again and we're not going to know although tomorrow on Friday there's going to be a really important set of inflation data that gets released and I think everybody's going to be sweating these details so right now we're in a moment to pause and there is the potential if this data comes back as reasonably good which means prices are you know not escalating as much as we thought um inflation is not going to be as bad growth is going to be moderate that that gives a lot of ammo for the FED to kind of take their foot off the um off the gas here in that case the markets will go boom okay give me your thoughts on what chamoth just said down below let's all check the comment section together but essentially it's a waiting game the inflation numbers we get back in these next two months will be vital to determine the fed's actions in the later half of this year and because we're still so much in a waiting game I still think that whether these next few months we grind up grind sideways grind down I still think we're going to see an increase of BTC dominance as people kind of cycle out of the more speculative vaults consolidate into Bitcoin maybe eth again give me your thoughts down below but let's keep moving and the final part of this video there are still a few quality altcoins implementing crypto projects making news that you should know so I encourage you to check the timestamps but first up what's happening with ethereum and the upcoming merge ethereum's ropeston test Network ready for merge dress rehearsal so the first test net out of three is about to transition to eth2 ethereum core developer Tim Bako shared the news on Twitter last night ropeston merge announcement ethereum's longest lived proof-of-work test net is moving to proof of stake a new Beacon chain has been launched today and the merge is expected around June 8th on the network node operators this is the first stress rehearsal so if this is successful on June 8th after the ropeston transition two more test Nets go early and seppolia will be transitioned to proof of stake before the focus shifts to mainnet the merge is coming and the dress rehearsals are taking place now next huge piece of adoption news for Stellar lumens MoneyGram to open a transfer platform with Stellar on the Stellar blockchain also eyeing a wallet deal in El Salvador so MoneyGram International one of the world's largest cross-border transfer services is partnering with the Stellar blockchain to create a stable coin based platform for money transfers the new service will allow Stellar wallet users to send circles USD coin usdc to recipients and by the way this is usdc on the seller blockchain not eth but send that usdc to recipients who will be able to cash them out for fiat currency through the MoneyGram Network so if you like Stellar lumens you obviously like this and the CEO also said that MoneyGram isn't talks with third-party companies that will provide digital wallets in El Salvador alongside the government government-backed Shiva wallets so he's saying that they'll also provide the wallets and they'll also have a transfer platform to make it easy to go in and out of Fiat in and out of crypto I like it next piece of news for polka dot polka dots Moonbeam adds a liquid staking giant Lido so just as a reminder what is Moonbeam moon beam is a connectivity layer between the ethereum blockchain and services being built on polka dot so it provides interoperability between ethereum polka dot the two blockchains and they're now working with Lido a staking derivatives platform that allows ether and other cryptos locked up in staking contracts to be used somewhere else another way to say this would be polka dot is bringing liquid staking to its network of blockchains allowing cryptocurrency owners who pledged to support the proof-of-stake network polka dot an Avenue to increase the revenue streams by earning additional yield in defy applications in a direct quote from the leadership of Lido liquid staking is really a basic building block of the ecosystem we are positioning Moonbeam as the best place to make multi-chain apps as we believe there's a shift from people deploying apps on a single chain to deploying them to multiple chains which is part why we chose to build on polka dot so good news for Moonbeam good news for the dot ecosystem all right that is the video my name's Austin like always see you tomorrow and as a reminder next week June 7th and 8th in Austin Texas my brother and I will be speaking at decentral nft crypto conference and if you buy your ticket use promo code altcoindale22 for a 30 discount link down below hope to see you there
댓글 0