Tom Lee: This is the most hated V-shaped rally

요약 보기

미국 셧다운 불확실성에도 AI 설비투자 순풍과 연준 비둘기파 기조로 증시 추가 상승 여지가 크다고 주장. 4분기 계절성 강세, 투자심리 여전히 저조해 'most hated V-shaped rally'로 규정. ISM 제조업 50 상회 시 경기 확장과 금융·소형주·기술주 강세 전망. 금융주는 AI 도입과 블록체인(이더리움) 기반 효율화로 기술주 밸류에이션을 받을 수 있다고 주장. 테더를 사례로 블록체인 기반 사업의 인건비 효율성 강조.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. All right. So, Tom, we said this a bunch of time. The markets seem to be shrugging off the shake the the shutdown uh valuation concerns. What do you think is going on? Why do investors just continue to feel confidence? Uh well, Frank, I think there's two underlying fundamental drivers for the economy.

02. You know, one is that we we know there's a a tremendous capex tailwind from AI. And the second is that the Fed's been on hold for 9 months and it's kept the ISM below 50 for now 31 months and the Fed's dovish. So that's the rest of the economy getting basically a lifeline. Those are going to be powerful tailwinds that even a government shutdown doesn't really change the story around.

03. And now that we're in this seasonally strong fourth quarter and valuations I just don't think are that demanding because you know Nvidia is still at 26 times earnings. I mean, I think stocks still have a lot of upside into year end. All right, really quick. You're talking about ISM manufacturing, right?

04. Still in contraction. You're saying the Federal Reserve rate cuts if we stay on this path that boosts the manufacturing sector. Is that is that the point you're trying to get to? Yes, that's right. Okay. Um, so the manufacturing sector's been cautious for 31 months, the longest stretch below 50 in history.

05. And you know, that's business confidence. It's highly correlated with earnings growth. So I think once that moves above 50, that means we're back in expansion mode. and it's good for financials and small caps and the tech trade continues. So I I think it's a broad-based rally. I think a lot of people think it would be good for transports, energy prices.

06. I think as you mentioned, it would have uh impacts across the board if we see a boost in US manufacturing. Okay, I want to get to your word of the day. It's doubbish. Now, this is interesting. Your word's doubbish. And you're doubbish because the Fed didn't get the jobs report and might not get other reports.

07. Why are you doubbish or you think the Fed's doubish despite that critical information? Uh well, the Fed has I think on balance has to be more dovish than what they said they would be last month because a government shutdown as you know disrupts economic activity. So even though they're not getting reports, there's also a standstill in GDP and the government is a very large share of GDP.

08. On top of that, it it causes confidence to be weaker. A shutdown makes people nervous and so the Fed will have to be even more doubbish and I think that's why stocks can rally even more than they have already. All right. You're also looking at seasonality. You alluded to it earlier. According to your data, since 1950 and Q4, we see just about an average rise of about 5%.

09. But when we're talking about seasonality, are you sure this isn't an outlier year? As we mentioned, a government shutdown, uh, companies trying to deal with tariffs. We're seeing a trade war between the US and China continue. It hasn't quite been resolved yet. I mean, aren't there some issues that could maybe shake the seasonality here?

10. Uh, yes, it's yes, that's right. I mean, seasonality is just a base case. Um, so things can make it different, but this year we're going into the fourth quarter where sentiment, I think, is still really muted. If you look at things like AI, net bulls, it's barely positive. After a 30% rally in stocks, historically, you'd be solidly positive on a 20week moving average of that number.

11. Investors have really been skeptical this entire rally. That's why we call it the most hated V-shaped rally. All right, I want to get to your pick as well. Your pick first today is financials. Now, is this on the idea that the Fed is doubbish, rate cuts help uh, you know, boost the yield curve and that helps financials or is there some other reason that you're saying that you would put money into financials right now ahead of earnings?

12. Well, I think financials uh have also fundamental tailwinds because we know the Fed is going to be doubbish, which is helpful for economic activity, but on top of that, AI is a a tool that the financials industry can leverage. You know, it's going to help them root out fraud. It's going to help make their businesses more profitable and it's something we've talked about at Fundstrat which is the financials may end up getting technology valuations especially given blockchain and moving from traditional financial rails onto blockchain and becoming more efficient.

13. All right. You're also a big believer in ether. So you're saying uh financials companies especially you say are building on ether. Is that a tailwind somehow? The fact that they're building Oh, sorry. Did I cut you off? Yes. Yeah, absolutely Frank. Uh, keep in mind, you know, exhibit A in all this is is Tether.

14. It's the largest stable coin issue in the world. It's valued at $500 billion or about 25 times earnings. It makes it the second largest bank in the world behind JP Morgan. And it shows you that by building on the blockchain, a business can really reduce cost and be a lot less employee intensive. Tether only has 300 employees compared to JP Morgan, which has 313,000 employees.

15. So, Tether is valued at around 1.8 billion per employee. JP Morgan around 2.6. Okay. So you can see the leverage coming from Ethereum.