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워런 버핏이 보유한 고배당주 3종(스토어캐피탈, 버라이즌, 셰브론)을 분석한 영상으로, 결론은 세 종목 모두 현재 가격에서는 '적정가치' 수준이라 저평가 매수 기회는 과거보다 줄었다는 것이다. [스토어캐피탈] 버핏이 지분 약 9.2%를 보유한 유일한 리츠로, 단위 점포 수익성(unit level profitability)을 중시하는 사업 모델과 중견기업 대상 임대 협상력이 강점으로 제시됨. 배당수익률 약 4%, 최근 5년 배당 성장률 연 5.9%, 배당성향 약 70%. 2020년 3월 저점(약 20달러) 이후 약 150% 상승, 현재 약 35달러. 선행 P/FFO 18.5배로 동종 리츠(리얼티인컴 20배 등)와 비교 시 적정 수준이라고 평가. [버라이즌] 버핏이 2020년 말 약 3.5%(약 86억 달러) 보유, 과거 2013~2015년에도 보유했다 매도한 이력이 있음. 현재 시총 약 2370억 달러, 12개월 PER 12.5배로 S&P500(42배)보다 매우 저렴하다고 주장. 버핏 지표(시가총액/GDP)는 234%로 역사적 최고권. 5G 시장 성장 기대와 C-밴드 경매(530억 달러 낙찰)를 근거로 들었으나, 주파수 면에서 T-모바일에 뒤처지고 설비투자 확대로 잉여현금흐름 압박이 예상됨. 배당수익률 4.4%이나 최근 10년간 배당 성장은 미미하고 향후 1~2년도 성장이 어려울 것으로 전망. 부채/EBITDA는 약 3배 근처로 상승. [셰브론] 버핏이 2020년 3분기부터 매수, 2020년 말 기준 약 2.5% 보유(약 49억 달러). 매수 평균단가 약 73달러 대비 현재 100달러 이상으로 연초 대비 약 40% 평가이익. 버핏은 2019년 옥시덴탈 우선주 투자, 도미니언 천연가스 자산 인수 등 에너지 섹터에 약 310억 달러를 직·간접 투자. 셰브론은 33년간 배당을 지속한 배당귀족주이며 배당수익률 약 5%. 다만 2020년 현금흐름으로 배당과 자본적지출을 감당하지 못해 부채로 충당했고, 유가 흐름에 배당 지속성이 크게 좌우됨. 현재 브렌트유는 약 70달러로 팬데믹 이전 수준 회복, 골드만삭스는 유가 80달러 전망으로 상향. 기업가치/EBITDA 약 7배로 과거 평균(약 8배)과 비교해 적정가치 근처로 판단. [투자 조언] 영상은 투자 권유가 아니며 개별 상황에 맞는 리스크 점검과 자체 조사를 권고함. 중개 플랫폼(웨불) 무료주식 프로모션 언급 있음.
다듬은 글
in this video i'm going to share three of warren buffett's highest paying dividend stocks warren buffett holds a sizable stake in these companies that pay dividends as high as 5 so the first big question is why is warren buffett invested in these high dividend stocks i'm going to walk you through his historical and current position in these companies and build a thesis for why he's invested in them the second big question is are these dividend stocks a good buy right now and i'm going to walk you through different dividend metrics to assess the quality of the dividend as well as briefly touch upon their valuations as always i am not a financial advisor and i am not making any recommendations specific for your situation you need to be aware of the risks and do your own independent research and throw due diligence before making any investment decisions the first high dividend stock owned by warren buffett is store capital ticker symbol stor store capital is one of the largest and fastest growing net lease reits in the us with a diversified portfolio of 2634 properties and 519 tenants across 49 states its tenants generally operate in one of three categories first are service providers such as early childhood education premier health clubs movie theaters second are amazon resistant retailers like furniture stores used car dealerships or stores that specialize in outdoor activities and recreation the last category is manufacturers involved in food processing metal fabrication and plastic and rubber products and such on the surface there's nothing special about store capital compared to other reeds but it happens to be the one and only reit warren buffett owns in berkshire hathaway's 270 billion dollar portfolio it's safe to say warren buffett rarely invests in reits so why does he own store capital i want to share two things that this read does differently than its peers which might explain why warren buffett likes it a lot so much so that as of the end of 2020 he owns 9.2 percent of the company it's one of only 13 companies in which she has an ownership state greater than 9 percent one of store capital secret sauce is focusing on what it calls unit level profitability as an essential payment source virtually all other reads focus on only two payment sources first being the credit worthiness of the tenant as in does a tenant have the ability to make rent payments and do they have a history demonstrating such the second payment source is the value of the property reits grow their value by buying and holding real estate that appreciates in value over time but store capital considers unit level profitability the third payment source essential to its success the company focuses on owning and leasing out profit center properties the business tenant must demonstrate the property rents from store capital generates profits for the tenant at that specific location by adding this information into its own proprietary edf model or expected default frequency the company estimates its median portfolio credit rating improves by three levels compared to moody's standard edf model in plain english knowing this about their tenants significantly improves the quality of its portfolio but how the store capital know the profitability of a specific unit in its lease contracts the company requires its tenants to provide the unit level financial reports this along with these other minimum requirements makes store capital very selective in where it invests and the tenants it targets because many businesses are unwilling to provide unit level financial reporting so how does this reek pull it off this leads the second secret sauce store capital targets to 200 000 companies in what is called the middle market these are loosely defined as companies with revenue between 10 million to 1 billion dollars and the key part is this these companies are often non-rated with limited real estate capital financing options this is because they're not considered investment grade by big banks and they generally avoid serving this market due to heavy regulation so middle market companies need store capital and store capital in turn can be selective which gives a reit a stronger position to negotiate favorable terms like longer leases passing the property expenses to the tenants using triple net leases and requiring unit level financial reporting here you can see that store capital's leverage and negotiations allows it to get more favorable terms in its leases compared to the industry such as the highest spread between lease yield and borrowing costs and the top quartile in lease escalation clauses looking at its dividend it currently offers a four percent yield and while that is on the lower end for reits in general its dividend growth has been very strong at 5.9 percent annually over the past five years since its ipo in 2014.
in an older version of this from the q3 earnings presentation store's dividend growth is 10 higher than its nearest competitor 10 higher that is a solid performance above its peers flipping back to the q4 slide its payout ratio has been consistently lower than its peers hovering around 70 percent prior to covid now i had mentioned that warren buffett has a 9 ownership in store capital but he built that stake in two tranches his initial state was back in june 2017 when he brought 18.6 million shares back then the shares were worth around 22 his second purchase was 5.8 million shares revealed in the june 20 2013 f filing at a share price of around 20 just after the price bottomed out near the end of march since then the stock has increased around 150 percent so then we need to ask ourselves is store capital still worth buying at today's price of around 35 right now the company is trading at a forward price to adjusted ffo of 18.5 its nearest competitors realty income national retail properties and spirit realty are trading at about 20 16.7 and 15 respectively when we step back and look at the reit sector overall we want to look at the standardized price to ffo and store capital stands at 19 while the sector stands at 18.
so based on these multiples i consider store capital to be fairly valued at this point it's certainly not the bargain it was at this time last year if you're interested in store capital or any of the next dividend stocks invest on weibo and get two free stocks worth up to eighteen hundred fifty dollars just by opening an account and depositing a hundred dollars weibull is an online trading platform that is commission free no minimum deposits there's no cost to use the basic service so you get free money just by signing up and making a deposit so claim your free stock now by using the link in the description and by doing so you also help support this channel so thank you the next company is verizon ticker symbol vz i don't think this company needs an introduction but what many don't realize is just how massive this telecom company is with 237 billion dollars in market cap it ranks as the 23rd largest company in the s p 500.
so when warren buffett bought a seemingly small 3.5 stake in the company late last year it ended up being a staggering 8.6 billion dollar investment ranking it as a sixth largest holding in berkshire hathaway's portfolio but this isn't his first rodeo with this company back in late 2013 he bought a 524 million dollar stake in it he increased his position by 40 to 734 million in 2014 maintained that for about two years and they sold everything by the end of 2015.
and verizon's stock price didn't really move much during that time frame so why is warren buffett back on board with a position more than 10 times larger than before i want to propose two reasons first verizon helps solve warren buffett's 138 billion dollar problem it's a cheap blue chip company in a very overvalued market much more expensive than back in 2014 so how overvalued is the market today one popular valuation metric called the buffett indicator currently stands at 234 percent which is a staggering 88 percent higher than the long-term trend line for some perspective it has never been this high going back as far as 1950.
based on a trailing 12-month pe ratio another popular metric the s p 500 currently stands at 42. the ratio has been this high only twice going back to 1880 first around the dot-com bubble and at the start of the great recession in 2008-2009 by that same measure verizon is currently at a ratio of 12.5 12.5 that's dirt cheap compared to the broader market and so you can see why warren buffett likes verizon it's an attractive valuation for a stable company with a high barrier to entry in a predictable industry but more importantly verizon's massive market cap helps alleviate his excessive cash position few companies can handle an 8.6 billion dollar share purchase in a single quarter without drawing attention and that's still a fraction of its cash in fact warren buffett ended 2020 with 138 billion dollars in cash he had 146 billion on hand in q3 which means the verizon purchase alone drew down six percent of it the second reason why i think he brought verizon is because of 5g the 5g services market size is estimated to be worth 665 billion by 2028 with the u.s market size anticipated to reach 148 billion dollars the race to dominate the next generation in wireless connectivity is heating up between t-mobile at t and verizon and verizon is his biggest bet however industry experts would agree that in the aftermath of the pivotal fcc c-band auctions earlier this year t-mobile remains the leader in the 5g race even though verizon paid a record 53 billion dollars to secure new wireless spectrum for 5g you can see in this chart the red bars are the spectrums each company won in the auction verizon a t were far behind in the low to mid spectrum holdings prior to the auction and they desperately needed the c bands just to catch up with t-mobile now if you're a bit lost let me try to explain in plain english what these spectrum ownerships have to do with 5g and what it means for verizon 5g can work in three different spectrum bands this chart shows you different bands and how far they can reach from the originating tower or transmitter represented by this dot millimeter wave or high band 5g is right at the dot or basically near the source it is by far the fastest 5g spectrum but it doesn't get far so you have to be really close to towers or transmitters now verizon dominates the spectrum band as shown here but it's not useful without a ton of short range transmitters it's not economical outside of densely populated areas low band 5g is a slow spectrum it's actually 600 megahertz and lower so it extends beyond what this chart shows it's only a fraction faster than 5g depending on different factors but the signal can travel really really far from the signal tower then there's a mid band between 700 megahertz to 6 gigahertz which is a sweet spot that all the carriers need to have because it offers the best trade-off between speed and distance now c-mans are a range of spectrum within the mid band that were not available to the carriers until the fcc auction they're owned by satellite companies like intel stat or scs for tv and radio services so the auction basically transfer the rights to the telecom companies prior to the auction t-mobile dominated the available mid-man spectrum holdings because of its merger with sprint so t-mobile has been able to roll out 5g faster and more easily because the thing is even though verizon 18 now own the c bands those spectrums aren't available yet until the end of 2021 at the earliest because the satellite companies have until then to transition off those spectrums so not only is verizon behind t-mobile and rolling out 5g but because it has less spectrum holdings as seen here its network capacity and speed won't be on par with t-mobile because of the amount of spectrum each company owns and at t is definitely behind both in that regard so why didn't warren buffett buy t-mobile instead of verizon well he does own t-mobile but his stake in it is only 0.4 valued at 700 million which he bought sometime in q2 of 2020.
his verizon stake is more than 12 times larger and i would argue it comes down to valuations right now t-mobile stock price is trading at a trailing 12-month pe multiple of 56. it's 33 more expensive than the broader s p 500 versus verizon which is again at 12.5 so yeah in a classic warren buffett move he doesn't want to overpay for his bet on 5g verizon just released its q1 2021 results and it generated 5.2 billion dollars in free cash flow paid 2.6 billion dollars in dividends giving us a payout ratio of 50 which is safe but if you decide to buy verizon you want to keep an eye out on the debt to ebitda ratio it's increased closer to three obviously because of the c-band auction and that was just to acquire the spectrums this slide shows the c-band build-out for 5g is expected to increase cap-backs by two to three billion dollars and with service revenue expected to barely grow by two percent which makes up 85 percent of total revenue that is going to put pressure on free cash so it's something you should keep an eye on the company pays a 4.4 dividend right now but its dividend hasn't grown much in the last 10 years and i don't think it will in the next year or two as it invests heavily in 5g the next company is chevron ticker symbol cvx warren buffett first bought chevron in q3 of 2020 where he filed confidentially with the sec to hide his position and then he purchased another 5.3 billion dollar stake in q4 so as of the end of 2020 he owns 2.5 percent of the company worth 4.9 billion dollars and it was really good timing because assuming his weighted average purchase price was around 73 dollars right now the stock is just north of 100 so he made a gain of around 40 year-to-date or about 1.4 billion dollars and this shouldn't come as a surprise oil prices have now rebounded to above 60 dollars per barrel since falling to as low as 19 last april but i think the key takeaway from a chevron investment has to do with more than just this one company in fact warren buffett has been very active in the energy sector as of late in 2019 he invested 10 billion dollars in accidental petroleum in exchange for preferred stocks that have an annual dividend of 8 in 2020 he brought dominion energy's natural gas transmission and storage assets worth 10 billion with this acquisition berkshire hathaway carries 18 of interstate natural gas transmission in the us and these are just as direct investments in august 2020 warren buffett invested more than six billion dollars in five of japan's biggest training companies that have direct stakes in oil and gas operations for example he invested in mitsuiko and mitsubishi which have joint stakes in sempra energy's cameron lng or liquefied natural gas export terminal in louisiana he also invested in sumitomo corp which has a direct stake in the cove point lng shipping terminal in maryland altogether he's invested around 31 billion dollars directly and indirectly into oil and natural gas interests with all the hyper on evs renewable energies carbon neutral and green technologies the reality is that oil and natural gas remain a vital energy commodity as of 2019 renewables made up only 10 of energy consumption and based on the government's global projections renewables aren't expected to be the top energy source until 2050 and even then it's only expected make up 28 of total energy consumption so yeah there's no doubt renewable energy is going to grow tremendously over the coming decades but oil and natural gas will continue to grow to meet rising demand albeit at a slower pace and i think this is where warren buffett saw an opportunity here's xle the largest energy sector etf and 2020 provided an entry point to buy into the sector at a steep discount and chevron and exxon which are two vertically integrated oil majors that together make up nearly half the etf arguably provide the best broad exposure to the industry coming out of the pandemic now of the two chevron has a stronger balance sheet than exxon and this has direct implications for their dividends here's why the 5 dividend chevron paid out cost 9.6 billion dollars in cash in 2020.
the problem is the company only generated 10.6 billion dollars in cash from operations and spent 8.9 billion on capex to maintain its operations so it took on 12.9 billion dollars in debt to pay the dividend but exxon had it worse it generated 14.7 billion dollars in cash from operations spent 17.3 billion in capex and paid out 14.9 billion in dividends by issuing 23.2 billion in new debt its cash flow from operations wasn't enough to cover its cap back spent or the dividend both companies have had to fall back on their balance sheets to operate their businesses at a loss as they waited for oil prices to recover this is showing the debt to equity ratios for the two companies and exxon mobil's ratio has increased dramatically the past year chevron's ratio has also increased but this was partly due to its 5 billion purchase of noble energy this was a strategic move by the company to bolster its upstream portfolio assets and the acquisition is projected to save the company about 600 million by the end of this year looking beyond exxon and compared to some of its other peers shravan still has a lowest net debt ratio of the group its balance sheet strength also gave it the wigan room to increase its dividend in 2020 by 8.4 percent while its competitors raised it by less than half that or cut it drastically at the current stock price the company pays a 5 dividend and it's been paying for about 33 years qualifying it as a dividend aristocrat however the company's ability to continue paying this out is heavily dependent on the direction of oil prices if oil prices remain flat at 40 through 2025 it's going to have to continue taking on debt to maintain its dividend and cap backs with its net debt ratio peaking around 36 percent if prices remain flat at 60 dollars the company is projecting more than 25 billion dollars in excessive cash flow over five years the good news is that right now the brent crude future is fluctuating close to 70 so it's basically recovered to pre-pandemic levels and more importantly global oil demand is expected to surge this year earlier this month major banks were projecting brent prices to reach 70 dollars by year-end but goldman sachs recently revised their estimates and now predict oil to rise to 80 per barrel as demand for travel exceeds what existing supply is able to match so based on these expectations where does the company's valuation stand now well chevron stands at seven multiple based on enterprise value to ebitda exxon stands at 7.5 total and bp stand at 5.3 and 4.6 respectively but these two are cheap for a reason their debt to equity is much higher than even exxon at 73 and 83 now the broader energy sector stands at a multiple of 8.3 and it might seem the chevron is undervalued but consider this if you look at the historical evv to ebitda prior to covid chevron was valued at around eight with oil prices now close to pre-pandemic levels adjusting for its noble acquisitions and its 2021 growth prospects i think the company is close to being fairly valued if you found this video helpful be sure to hit that like button down below and don't forget to hit that subscribe button and hit that notification bell so you don't miss on any future videos thanks for watching and i'll see you guys next time
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