저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 과거 FAANG(빅테크)의 시장 주도력은 끝났으며, 성장주 프리미엄이 사라져 이제는 시장을 따라가는 추종자 신세라는 주장. [실적·광고 부진] 구글은 광고 매출이 부진했고 특히 암호화폐·모기지 대출 업체 광고 감소가 컸다. 유튜브 광고 수치도 연준 금리 인상 영향으로 더 나빠질 것으로 봤다. 메타는 광고 단가가 18% 하락했고, 메타버스 부문 대규모 적자 예고로 주가가 급락했다. [마이크로소프트·클라우드] 재택근무 특수가 사라졌고 게임 부문도 부진했다. 애저(Azure) 성장 둔화 전망이 가장 나쁘며, 클라우드 시장은 이미 5~6회 정도로 성숙했고 경쟁자가 많다고 진단했다. [경쟁·경영진 평가] 틱톡이 유튜브를 위협하고 있으나 빅테크 CEO들이 이를 과소평가하고 있다. 구글의 대규모 인력 채용 발표 등 긴축 기조와 어긋난 메시지를 비판했다. 메타·구글 등은 실적 악화를 사전에 공지하지 않아 비판받아야 한다고 주장. [구조조정·비용] 데이터센터는 전기요금 상승으로 비용센터가 됐고, 빅테크는 감원(레이오프)을 할 줄 모른다고 조롱했다. [규제·인수합병] 정부 규제 강화로 인수합병을 통한 성장도 어렵다. 공화당·민주당 모두 빅테크를 싫어한다고 언급. [주주환원] 빅테크는 배당이 적고 주식을 과다 발행하는 반면, 자사주 매입과 배당이 많은 기업들이 더 낫다고 평가. [재기 가능성] 넷플릭스의 광고 요금제 도입, 애플의 변화 시도 등은 긍정적이나 메타는 회복이 어렵다고 봤다. 블랙록은 훌륭한 자산운용사로 추천. [출연자 전망] 크레이머는 빅테크가 과거의 리더 지위를 잃었다며 '가졌던 믿음이 틀렸다'고 인정했고, 빅테크 주가 회복에 회의적인 입장.
다듬은 글
The stock market has been led by tech for over a decade, and we got so used to it that we forgot this group has often been a pariah. Yet that's exactly what tech has become over the past year, so it's time to face a few facts that nobody in Silicon Valley seems to want to acknowledge.
Facts first: the NASDAQ keeps underperforming the other averages. Today the Dow inched up two points, while the NASDAQ tumbled 2.04 percent. The group I'm talking about is the one that the guy who created the term FAANG made famous, which now stands for Meta Platforms, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Alphabet. And hey, why not throw Microsoft in for good measure?
I know why these companies used to be the crown kings of the stock market. They had little competition, great growth, and no real economic sensitivity. But that's no longer the case. Hence the reason they've been reaching a ceiling over the past 11 months. There are moments when they can have a resurgence, and Apple might report something good tomorrow. But this formerly gigantic cohort is no longer what it used to be, which makes their market capitalizations very difficult to justify even after these declines.
Now, there are four of us, and it's been well chronicled, but it took the last 24 hours to rip the shroud off the glory of the acronym. So let's take them down one by one, with an idea of what has really happened here, because it's rather monumental.
First, these names are no longer secular growth stories. Many of them have no growth whatsoever. They're now held hostage to the broader economy, or even to their own, let's say, incompetence. Last night Google told a story of advertising that didn't sound too different from what you might hear from an old-school television company, a linear TV company. They were hurt by a lack of ads, especially from crypto and mortgage lenders. I thought those would be small potatoes compared to the ad revenue they'd be getting from anything connected to travel. Forget about it. The disappointing YouTube ad numbers should only get worse as the Fed keeps tightening. In the end, it's a cyclical business that rises and falls with the rest of the economy, and it no longer deserves such a lofty price-to-earnings multiple.
We just heard something very similar from Meta Platforms, the artist formerly known as Facebook. Today they reported mixed results, with better-than-expected sales but also a huge shortfall. You know, these guys may be delusional. The forecast for the current quarter was lackluster. The average price per ad is way down, off 18 percent, and that didn't help. CEO Mark Zuckerberg warned of steep losses in the metaverse division next year, which is proving to be a real money pit. That's why the stock is plummeting, and that's why the stock is destroying everyone who owns it tonight. What a nightmare, just a hurricane of pain. We've owned it forever for the charitable trust, and it could make anyone, even a big one or a chump, feel delusional.
Microsoft had plenty of growth from the remote work environment, but that growth vanished, because it's not like you need to buy a new PC every year, although some people seem to think you do. The gaming division seemed lackluster again, which was something you did during COVID. Worst of all was the prediction of a slowdown in Azure, their cloud infrastructure business that had been so strong. Microsoft's actual quarter was excellent, and they'll tell you that from now until the cows come home. But the forecast from CFO Amy Hood was ugly, and she is not, by the way, in the habit of sandbagging us with guidance.
So, point number two: the endless claims that we're still in the early innings of cloud adoption can now be debunked. You don't get that kind of slowdown in Azure if the cloud is roaring. To put it in baseball terms, I think the cloud is now probably in the fifth or sixth inning, and there are way too many competitors. Google is spending a fortune to poach customers from Amazon and Microsoft in their cloud division, and that will destroy everybody's profitability. If you're just now hopping on the cloud bandwagon, you're really late to the game, and I'm sick of hearing otherwise. They will tell you otherwise, because the denial out in Silicon Valley is palpable. Remember, I did not say lie, I did not say fraud. I said denial.
Third, there is now so much competition for these companies. The Chinese video platform TikTok is crushing YouTube, just like it's lapping Facebook. I was taken aback by how much damage TikTok has done to Google. This is one of the greatest disruptors of all time, yet the CEOs of the big dogs seem totally oblivious to, or in denial about, TikTok's power. Maybe they're arrogant. Here's something you used to apply to people who went to Stanford Business School and Stanford Computing and Engineering: maybe they're idiots.
Fourth, speaking of arrogance, these companies, with the exception, I think, of Apple, have no idea how to read the room. When you disappoint like Alphabet or Microsoft, you have to put it right up front. You don't obscure the shortfall, and you don't tell us what a great quarter you had, oh, by the way. And you never say you're going to hire 12,000 people within a few sentences of talking about the need to tighten your belt, like Alphabet did. It was embarrassing and unbecoming. Let me tell you something: I said on this show that it's not about friends, it's about money. Well, let me tell you something else. I don't even want a friend out there after tonight. I don't care if they hate me. It makes me stronger.
By the way, the idea that Google can spend money on anything and everything should have been long dead, plus the endless chunking up of search results is leading to search fatigue. Do you ever try to use it anymore? Yes, we all need Google, but that no longer makes it a good stock. As far as management goes, I'll just say this: if Alphabet had gotten a terrific CFO with a poor track record, they'd be in much better shape now. Instead, they've got a host of money-losing side businesses. I bet a lot of the executives don't even know these businesses exist within their own companies. It's almost like it's beneath them.
Let's make one thing perfectly clear. Meta, like AMD and Nvidia, but those two are honorable companies, should have pre-announced the shortfall that I saw tonight. It was way too big to keep secret. No wonder the stock kept going down ahead of time. That's why the government has these rules. It's not cricket, it's not how you play the game. Still, they're unfazed, as has become typical with the firms in Silicon Valley. They've made so much money, what do they care? They've destroyed everyone, but what do they care? Why do they care?
Fifth, nobody enjoys firing people. I know, I've had to fire some people in my lifetime. But when you lose your secular growth status, like these companies have, you have to find ways to save money, and simply not filling positions is not enough. You need to do what's called layoffs, reductions, and force reductions. No one wants to do it, but they don't even seem to know how. I don't even know if they know what a RIF is. I wonder if they think RIF is some sort of thing, like annual recurring revenue. Maybe I'll Google it. Oh no, you can't, there are 70 things ahead of it.
Sixth, we discovered last night that data centers have become a cost center. When I hear that the price of electricity in Europe is hurting data center profitability, I start thinking, what the heck are these companies doing? If that's the case, I'd rather own Dell. It also makes me realize that the semiconductor industry may not be much of an industry, with the exception of the honorable people at AMD and Nvidia. Maybe that's not even much of an industry.
Seventh, the FAANG cohort can no longer grow their way out of this jam by making acquisitions. You know why governments worldwide despise it? They hate them. It's the only thing Republicans and Democrats agree on: how horrible these companies are. The Biden administration in particular would like nothing more than to destroy these companies, and any excuse to go after them will do. But it's not just Democrats hating big tech. It's one of the last bastions of bipartisanship. When you speak to guys like McCarthy, you know, when you speak to him as minority leader or to the majority leader, the only thing you can say to them when they disagree with each other is, "What do you think of the metaverse?"
Finally, tech companies issue stock endlessly and typically pay little to no dividends. Yet there are plenty of stocks out there with immense buybacks and generous dividends, and many of them are much less held hostage to the broader economy. It's time to recognize that the FAANG names got too big. Can they turn things around? Sure, but they really have to change the way they operate. We've seen Netflix rolling out ads to breathe new life into the business model, and that's what they're trying. I think Apple's trying now too. Some of these companies can be reset. Meta, I don't know. I think they'd really have to change the name again. You can't be saved, never. I don't know. How about "loser"? How about "suputa"? I don't know. Anything doesn't even matter. I don't know if they can make a comeback. The facts have changed, and I have to change with them. I believed I'd be safe. I was wrong.
Bottom line: forget being leaders. Big stocks are now followers in a post-COVID era, where we're learning that their earnings were far more inflated by the pandemic than we knew. We're just now discovering the tech emperors have no clothes, if they're even emperors at all.
Brandon, California, Brandon, big boo. Yeah, Jim, booyah. My question to you, my good man, is I'm looking for a well-managed asset management company to add to my portfolio. What do you think about BlackRock? Yes, sir. BlackRock is an excellent company run by honorable people who tell the truth as they see it and are very realistic, and I would definitely recommend it. They're worth owning.
All right, so, am I hot under the collar? Ah, actually, I'm fine. I'll be more upset if the Phillies don't win the World Series or if the Eagles lose this weekend. But sometimes you've got to blow off steam, particularly when you see trillionaires and billionaires unable to come to grips with the fact that they want to destroy everything you have. Oh, man. Bunny tonight, Illinois tour supporter, top and bottom might be. You think they want to take everything ahead? I think they just want to be good tool workers, people.
Oh, then earlier today we got the largest side view of your mobile eye. But could the Intel spin-off be investable after today's big run? I'll give you my take. And the financiers are back in fashion on the Wall Street fashion show, so could Steve be a name you should keep on your radar? I'm talking to the CEO once again. You know what, no harm, no foul. Chief.
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