저자: GEOStock채널진행자 · 외국인
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결론: GEO Group(주식코드 GEO)은 주가가 52주 저점 근처로 과도하게 하락했고 펀더멘털 대비 저평가라는 주장. 주가 현황: 약 5.12달러, 52주 저점 4.96달러 근처, 시가총액 약 6.3억 달러. 마이클 배리가 2021년 1분기에 전량 매도한 사실과 신용등급 하향이 공포를 키웠다고 설명. 실적: 2021년 1분기 매출 5.76억 달러(연환산 약 23억 달러), 순이익 5천만 달러(연환산 약 2.02억 달러), 조정 FFO 7,200만 달러(연환산 약 2.9억 달러). 2019~2020년 대비 매출은 약 5% 감소했으나 주가는 70% 이상 하락해 과잉반응이라고 주장. 2021년 가이던스: 매출 약 22.5억 달러, 순이익 약 1.5억 달러, 조정 EBITDA 약 4억 달러, FFO 약 2.8억 달러 예상. 밸류에이션: P/S 약 0.28, P/B 0.69, P/E 4.23, P/EBITDA 1.59, P/FFO 2.27로 리츠 평균(15~20배 이상) 대비 매우 저평가라고 주장. 단기 부채: 유동부채 4.23억 달러, 유동자산 약 7억 달러로 단기 채무 상환 가능. 현금 약 4.6억 달러 보유. 장기 부채 리스크: 2020년 2,600만, 2021년 2.13억, 2022년 3억 달러 상환 후 2023년 17억 달러 상환 예정(만기 2024년으로 언급). 채권자와 재조정 협상 시작 보도가 긍정적 신호라고 평가. 결론 및 리스크: 펀더멘털은 아직 견조하고 저평가가 매우 매력적이나, 대규모 부채 만기와 신정부 정책에 따른 매출·FFO 감소 가능성을 주시해야 함. 본인은 포트폴리오의 3~5%만 배분하며 5%를 넘기지 않는다고 밝힘. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 GEO를 '매우 저평가된 주식 중 하나'로 보며 부채 재조정 진행을 지켜보겠다는 입장.
다듬은 글
hey guys welcome back to my channel so i hope everyone is enjoying their long weekend i just wanted to make a quick update on uh jio stock ticker symbol geo if you guys haven't watched my first video on jio i put a link on the description and highly recommend you to watch that video first i actually did a detailed stock analysis uh in that particular video so anyway jio is currently trading at five dollars and 12 cents almost near its 52-week low which is 4.96 uh with a total market cap of around six hundred and thirty million dollars there are a lot of fun there is fear uncertainty and doubt going on in the stock um market for this particular stock right now and that's affecting the price um of jio very badly for example if you guys follow the news you probably already know that michael barry sold 100 of his jio position in the first quarter of 2021 so he actually took a position at around 8 and 86 cents per share in the last quarter of 2020 and completely sold out that position recently so that created some fun in the market also if you guys um look at some of the recent articles from seeking alpha just like this one uh claiming that jio is on the verge of bankruptcy you'll notice that the sentiment regarding the private prison sector and uh particularly on this stock is not very positive and finally uh the recent downgrade of credit rating um by snp that is standard and poor caused additional fart in the market as well okay so in this video we will go over some fundamentals of the business and see if investing in this stock still makes sense or not first we'll analyze their q1 earnings and then we'll look into their 2021 guidance we'll also revisit the valuation of the company at current price label we'll check their financial strength uh primarily by checking their liquidity and also analyze their long-term debt payment schedule to get a better picture of their overall financial situation hopefully at the end of the video you guys will have some new updates on the stock the only thing i asked from you guys if you could please hit the like button it really helps me with the channel and i really appreciate that and thank you for that so without any further ado let's first look into their earnings so this is the earnings for q1 2021 you'll notice that they reported a revenue of 576 million dollars in the first quarter of 2021 in an annualized basis that turns out to be around 2.3 billion dollars now if you compare that number with the revenue from 2019 and 2020 you'll see that the revenue declined about 5 or so but unfortunately the share price declined more than 70 in that same period of time which i think is an overreaction now if you look at the net income uh they reported a net income of 50 million dollars in the first quarter and again in an annualized basis that's about 202 million dollars of net income uh which is actually somewhat improved from 2019 and 2020 levels so net income actually got improved but again this is a reach so we will probably focus on the funds from operation so if you look at the adjusted funds from operations they reported 72 million dollars in the first quarter of 2021.
in an annualized basis that's around 290 million dollars forms from operations yearly uh for 2021. again if you compare the numbers from 2019 and 2020 you will see that there is a decline of about 10 from 2019 um but unfortunately the share price declined about 75 to 80 percent over that same period of time which again i think is an overreaction uh that's going on right now now we will look into their guidance for the whole year of 2021 so they're expecting their revenues to be about 2.25 billion dollars in fiscal year 2021 and they are expecting their net income to be 150 million dollars around that number um they're expecting their adjusted ebitda to be about 400 million dollars so these are simply great numbers their funds from operations are expected to be come out around 280 million dollars so these are really good numbers especially when you compare these numbers with their current market cap of about 626 million dollars you see that the stock is very undervalued so for example they are producing an adjusted evit of 400 million dollars and currently trading at around 626 million dollars so that tells me that the stock is currently very undervalued now in this slide we will uh look into their valuation so if you look at their price to sales you'll see that that's only at around four 0.28 price to book is 0.69 price to earnings sitting at 4.23 price to ebitda is 1.59 um and finally price to funds from operation this is a read so that's a very important number for a reit sitting at around only 2.27 and for comparison most reits trade at 15 to 20 and even higher uh price to funds from operations depending on in what sector they're in so this is very undervaluation um currently going on for this particular stock again that's just my personal opinion okay let's now focus on their short-term debt obligations and see if they are able to meet their short-term liabilities uh so according to their 10-q statement that they published in the first quarter of this year they have a total current liabilities of 423 million dollars and their current assets their total current assets sitting at around 700 million dollars so you can see that they have enough current assets to cover all their current liabilities so in that regard i don't see any issues and according to their 10k statement they actually have a total of 460 million dollars of liquid cash on hand which is definitely helpful to see because they have enough liquid cash to cover their short-term obligations let's now take a look at their long-term debt repayment schedule i think this is where things get very interesting so if you look here in 2020 they have a total long-term annual debt repayment of 26 million dollars and in 2021 that payment goes to 213 million dollars 2022 300 million dollars but in 2023 that number jumps to 1.7 billion dollars so that's a huge number a huge debt coming up in 2023 but this debt is actually due in 2024 so they have around three years to either restructure this debt or find out another lender who will um lend them so that they can restructure this debt date to a future maturity date but this is a valid concern and i'll be very cautiously optimistic about the stock going forward i'll keep an eye on how they are tackling this long-term debt and how they're trying to restructure this so some of the news article that published recently says that they actually started talking some of the lenders to restructure the debt which is a good sign and i would like to see more news like this in the coming future regarding their long-term debt okay so let's summarize the video so i think the fundamentals are still strong because they're still bringing 2.25 billion dollars of revenue and around 300 million dollars of funds from operations so in that regard i think the fundamentals are still there uh the valuations are very attractive um there is no question about that undoubtedly this is one of the most undervalued stocks uh right now trading in the stock market and they have a very high long-term debt which we just discussed but again they have until 2024 to find a lender uh or to restructure this very high long-term debt that they have in their balance sheet finally just keep an eye on the business uh look for how they're trying to restructure the debt look for how their revenue and funds from operations are declining because of the new administration and also manage your risk uh personally i have three to five percent of my portfolio is allocated into this stock i'm not going over five percent and i highly recommend to manage your risk based on your risk tolerance and etc so these are the um summary of uh my findings uh if you guys enjoyed the video consider liking the video and subscribing to my channel if i have any additional update on jio in the future i'll definitely make new videos and keep you guys updated thank you for watching
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