저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 중국 경제 재개 기대에 대해 Mobius는 중국 투자에 매우 신중해야 하며, 미국 경기는 전쟁 관련 지출로 비교적 견조하다고 봄. 중국 정책 리스크: 정부가 중국 기업들에 골든셰어를 확보해 통제를 강화하고 있으며, 텐센트·알리바바 등의 사례를 언급하며 투자 환경이 나빠지고 있다고 지적. 자본 유출 제한: 본인 HSBC 계좌 자금이 상하이에서 인출되지 않는 상황을 예로 들며, 정부가 자금 유출을 제한하고 자금 출처 기록을 요구한다고 설명. 이를 두고 매우 우려스럽다고 함. 중국 관련 설문: 미국상공회의소(AmCham China) 조사에서 다수 미국 기업이 중국을 상위 3대 투자 우선순위로 보지 않으며, 절반이 작년 흑자를 내지 못했다고 언급. 인덱스 투자 비판: 미국 기업들이 지수 비중(약 30%) 때문에 기계적으로 중국에 투자하는 것은 맹목적 투자라고 비판. 대안 지역: 인도(인구 10억 명, 제조업 기회)와 브라질(인구 2.5억 명, 개방 사회)을 중국의 대안으로 제시. 홍콩은 중국 본토보다 자금 출입이 상대적으로 자유로워 접근 중이라고 함. 미국 경기 전망: 금리 인상 누적에도 불구하고 우크라이나 전쟁 및 중국과의 간접 갈등에 따른 방산 등 국방 관련 주문 증가로 성장과 고용이 견조할 것으로 보고, 높은 금리가 반드시 약한 시장을 뜻하지 않는다며 미국에 상대적으로 낙관적. 주요 리스크: 중국 규제 강화, 자본 통제, 지정학적 긴장, 금리 인상의 시차 효과.
다듬은 글
China this morning it is betting big on its economic recovery after lifting the zero covet policies Beijing widely expected to announce a GDP growth Target of around five percent for the year and it's funny how that happens Communist Party says we will grow five percent and the Chinese economy then grows five percent China's economy grew a three percent last year missing the target of 5.5 percent joining me right now is Mobius Capital Partners founding partner Mark Mobius Mark it's great to see you thanks so much for being here you're allocating Capital all over the world and I want to get your take of the impact of China reopening because you would think that that is going to you know spark some demand for a whole host of Commodities is that what you're seeing yeah you're seeing a beginning of that commodity prices are moving as a result of that but the bottom line is that China is moving in a completely different direction than what they shall ping instituted when they started the big reform program now you have a government which is taking golden shares in companies all over China that means they're going to try to control all of these companies and you know what's happened already to tencent and Alibaba and these companies so I don't think it's a very good picture uh when you see the government becoming more and more control oriented uh in the economy right and that's exactly what we've what we've seen Mark right I mean you're talking about Xi Jinping really a different uh leader than even past CCP leaders he's much more inward models himself after Mao Zedong I mean for God's sakes we keep seeing disappearances of people right Renaissance China's founder disappeared and then the company said that they are uh you know cooperating with the government probe have you have you lessened your exposure to China as a result of these provocations that we talk about every day mark well you know I'm personally affected because I have an account with HSBC and and Shanghai I can't get my money out the government is restricting the flow of money out of the country so I would be very very careful in investing in China what we're doing is going into Hong Kong which seems to be a little more uh open and able to get money in and out but putting money into China I think you have to be very very careful so they won't allow outflows right now so you can't get you how I mean that's that's significant mark it is it's very significant I can't get an explanation of why they're doing this it's just amazing you know they're putting all kinds of barriers you know they don't say no you can't get your money out but they say give us all the records from 20 years of how you made this money and so forth once it's crazy that is crazy that's scary actually mean well the American Chamber of Commerce in China's business sentiment survey showed a majority of U.S companies say that China is no longer seen as the quote top three investment priority this happening for the first time in the agency's 25-year history half of those companies say that they didn't turn a profit in China last year with more than a third reporting China Revenue fell year over year mark I don't know why American companies have any belief that they're going to get you know positive exposure operating in China as if they're going to get some kind of priority they're not no the problem is they're according investing according to the index the index now 30 is China so they say okay we've got to invest in China in order to be in line with the index I mean this is like blind investing it's incredible yeah I mean it's all about money so you know what do you say to the you know the apple and apples of the World Mark Tepper and you know the Bridgewaters of the world Ray dalio a couple of weeks ago and literally a couple of weeks ago he said he wanted to double down on Chinese stocks yeah I don't know how you can double down on Chinese stocks when Jack ma disappears in the middle tonight I don't know and look what mark is telling us he can't even get his money out I know how that is like an investable asset class I have heard of like these hedge funds you know trying to make a trade of it because the of the whole China reopening thing but we're also talking about a point in time where I mentioned Elon Musk earlier in the show um who's now investing five billion dollars into building a Mexican Factory probably to Hedges bets on that gigafactory he's gotten Shanks they don't like that so Mark is there an alternative for you have you upped your exposure elsewhere as you lessen the exposure to China India number one because we've got a billion people they can do the same thing that the Chinese do they can do the same kind of manufacturing and so forth and I'm now in Brazil Brazil you've got 250 plus million people very good people open Society hey why not come here this is another alternative yeah it's a good point mark what about the United States tell us how you feel about the macro story right now do you want a lesson exposure to the U.S you know we're all told that these interest rate uh hikes this string of interest rate hikes hasn't even been 12 months yet right they started in March but it's supposed to take a year to actually have the impact so there's a lag there do you think things get worse as a result of this economically speaking uh no I don't think so I think the U.S is in pretty good shape and the reason why is that let's face it the U.S is at War they're at war in Ukraine and more and more with war with China indirectly and when you have a war situation spending those up you think about all these depend stocks that are getting massive orders so that will generate a lot of uh growth in the economy and that's the reason why you see the labor market being proved relatively tight in America so I'm relatively bullish despite the interest rates if you look at the history of interest rates High interest rates don't necessarily mean a poor market so I think uh the U.S looks pretty good okay Mark we'll leave it there it's great to see you this morning thanks so much
Comments 0