저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
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Peter Lynch는 거시경제와 금리·인플레이션 예측은 불가능하며 투자자가 집중할 대상이 아니라고 주장한다. 주식은 복권이 아니라 기업이므로 기업 이익에 집중해야 하고, 장기적으로 기업 이익은 성장해 주식이 최선의 투자처라고 본다. 단기 시장 방향은 모르지만 10~20년 관점에선 가능성이 명확해진다. 기업 평가가 이미 높으면 기대 성장이 실현돼야 하므로 리스크-보상비를 따져야 한다고 강조한다.
다듬은 글
Peter Lynch is the man in the myth and the legend he ran the mellan fund at Fidelity between 1977 and 1990 where he achieved a 29.2% annual return this guy is the investing Master he also wrote the book One upon Wall Street which you know at this point is required for all value investors and on top of that it's one of the best selling stock market books of all time now Lynch does not do many interviews but we can watch a lot of his commentary recently looking for insights that specifically apply to the market condition that we see today heading to 2023 I was surprised by how much stuff I found that was helpful for right now so as we know our main issue running into 2023 is high inflation and a rising interest rate which are causing asset prices like stocks and real estate to suffer it looks like they are going to be a big issue throughout 2023 as well so with that in mind let's first hear Peter Lynch's opinion about investing during times when inflation is up and the interest rate is rising and what he says might just surprise you in how perfectly relevant it is in the environment people understand there's 100% correlation with what happens to a company's earnings over several years and what happens to the stock if the company McDonald's has done very well as a company right the stock has done very well people worry about too much money supply what's happened to the price of oil whe who's the president who's being nominated for the Supreme Court the ozone layer has nothing to do McDonald's earnings go up the next 10 years the stock will go yeah but what they will say to you Peter is that as you know and why am I telling you this but it's fun to tell you this they're telling you that these other things influence the amount of earnings of a particular company if we're in a recession people are not going to spend as much money on going to the movies or whatever they do and and therefore you got to pay attention to these other things because they impact on earnings they are very important but you have no idea of knowing what they're going to do Allan Greenspan's the head of the Federal Reserve right he cannot predict interest rates yes he'd be the first to he can influence him but he can't predict him he cannot predict what long-term in rates are going to be one year from now two years from now three years he's even surprised how low they are now right so how am I supposed to predict interest rates how am I supposed to predict the economy you certainly remember the recession of 82 1982 we had a 20% prime rate 14% unemployment 12% inflation I don't remember anybody telling me in 1980 or 81 that was going to happen all of a sudden we had the worst recession since the depression I didn't read about in the paper so it's crazy to think about these things don't focus on macro you know his point is that yes the macro is important and yes it influences the price but as an investor it is one of those things that is shortterm and you can't control it so if you can't predict it and you can't control it then why should you spend your time thinking about it this is the Trap that many investors have fallen into this year and honestly it is fair because it is all that the media has been talking about you know that the FED has had another meeting and they have raised rates and the Bureau of Labor Statistics was released this month but you can't get caught up in that sort of stuff as an investor you need to be laser focused on each potential investment you're looking to make and judge each opportunity on its own stocks are not lottery tickets there is a company behind every stock if a company does well the stock does well stocks are not lottery tickets there's a company behind every stock if a company does well the stock does well it's not that complicated people get too carried away and first of all they try and predict the stock market that is a total waste a time no one can predict the stock market they try to predict interest rates if anybody predict interest rates right three times in AOW that'd be a billionaire considering there's not that many billionaires on the planet there can't be that many people that can predict the interest rights because there'd be lots of billionaires and no one can predict the economy I a lot of people in this room were around in 1981 and ' 82 when we had a 20% prime rate with double- digit inflation double dig digit unemployment I don't remember anybody telling me in 1981 about it I didn't read I studyed all this stuff I don't remember anybody telling we're going have the worst recession since the depression what I'm trying to tell you it' be very useful to know what the stock market's going to do it'd be terrific to know that the Dow Jones average a year from now would be X that going to have a full scale recession our interest rates going to be 12% that's useful stuff you never know it though you just don't get to learn it so I've always said if you spend 14 minutes a year on economics you've wasted 12 minutes and I I I really believe that would that is the classic line by Peter Lynch but it hammers home the idea that macroeconomics kind of makes the world go around it is not what we as long-term value investors should be focused on for example 2007 was the last time interest rates were were higher than they are now but imagine not buying a business like Amazon Apple or Google just because you were scared of interest rates it is a bad call in hindsight but even today with the market down there will still be tons of investors bailing on their portfolios based on the fear that interest rates could go a lot higher and stocks may suffer as Peter Lynch says what we need to be focused on is the earnings of each company when the market Falls however things begin to shift in the long-term value invest favor and that's really what you need to remember when the market folds we need to focus on the long-term I may have been right six times out of 10 but if I am right I make a double or triple occasionally I might have been right six times out of 10 but if I'm right I make a double or triple occasionally it offsets the times you lose 30 or 40% in fact you could be right a third of the time as long as you have a lot of good results so when you're short you can only make 90% when you're long you can make 10 fold or fivefold so I think long is the way to be corporate profits have grown about 7even or 8% a year that means they double but including dividends about every 10 years could duple every 20 go up Eightfold every 40 that's the kind of numbers you're interested b a 10-year bond today is little over 2% so I think the stock market's the best place to be for the next 10 20 30 years the next two years no idea I've never known what the next two years are going to be that's a very good point and you know the interesting fact that nobody nobody knows I could get that point across to more people you know that in the next 2 years it could go up or it could go down and there is no way to know which direction but over 10 or 20 years the likely outcome becomes much clearer over 10 20 and the likely outcome becomes much more clear we can take a coin and flip it I have no idea what the next thousand points are going to do we could take a coin out and flip it I have no idea what the next thousand points going to do the next 6,000 points going to be up the next 14,000 points going to be up the next 20,000 points going be up but you don't know where the next thousand is going to be it could be down could be up nobody does and and it's futile to try and guess it corporate profits will be a lot higher 10 years from now they'll be a lot higher 20 years from now that's what you got to rely on Microsoft didn't exist 20 years ago Staples didn't exist 20 years Federal Express didn't exist 20 years ago new companies will come along that's what makes didn't exist 20 years ago that's what makes amen has two1 billion drugs they didn't exist 20 years ago new companies have come along that's what makes this country work so that's the game stay focused on the longterm you must Focus one the companies that pop up on you that you understand the ones that have a competitive Advantage the ones that have really well oiled management teams and the lastly and importantly the omnis that offer a steep discount to in eye value and this has been the problem over the past few years unfortunately there have been many wonderful business out there not basically all of them have been all high prices and so much they have really did need to execute over the next 10 years for their valuation to be justified this the Peter Lynch exactly talking about you say to yourself I think this company is going to earn something in the future you say to yourself I think this compan is going to earn something in the future if it's already discounting that if it's selling at a huge multiple you say it's already it has to work and then it's only going to stay even so you have to say yourself if I'm right how much am I going to make if I'm wrong how much am I going to lose that's the risk reward ratio in stock shop we talk about if I'm right I hope I'm going to double trip my money if I'm wrong May I'll lose 30 40% that's a favor ratio you say if I'm right the Stock's not going to go up it's already discounting terrific things if discounting terrific things are already in the stock I don't know so that's really going to be the secret to investing until 23 if I'm right I'm going to double trip the money if I am wrong maybe I will lose 30 to 40 that's a a favor ratio if you say I am right the stocks and it's time wrap so what's your opinion on the stock market
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