저자: WarrenBuffett · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 좋은 기업을 찾았다면 시장 폭락을 기다리기보다 보유하는 편이 낫다는 견해. 핵심 주장: 훌륭한 기업은 수십 년간 훌륭할 것이므로, 3년 만에 흔들릴 기업이라면 애초에 훌륭한 기업이 아니라고 봄. 20년 여행을 떠나도 걱정 없을 만큼 믿을 수 있는 기업을 보유하라는 취지. 타이밍에 대한 입장: 폭락을 기다리는 전략은 '유행병을 기다리는 장의사'에 비유하며 회의적으로 평가. 다우지수가 X에서 90%, 50%로 떨어지는 식의 극단을 노리는 것은 현실적으로 얻기 어렵고, 폴 게티처럼 우연히 대규모 현금이 생긴 경우에만 유리했다고 설명. 근거 사례: 아메리칸 익스프레스(1964), 가이코(1976)의 일시적 악재를 기회로 활용한 경험을 언급. 다만 이런 기회는 드물다고 강조. 실행 원칙: 훌륭한 기업을 찾아 보유하고, 단기 시세 변동에 신경 쓰지 말 것. 주식 시세가 매일 반영되는 것은 투자자 판단을 흐린다고 봄. 필립 피셔의 사업 중심 투자 접근을 인용하며, 기업을 통째로 사는 관점(비상장 지분 매입 비유)을 강조. 언급 종목 및 방향: 특정 종목(삼성전자, SK하이닉스, 금, 엔비디아 등 대상 자산) 언급 없음. 방향성 예측 없음. 조건/리스크: 우연한 현금 유입이 있을 때만 폭락 매수가 유리하다는 조건부 견해. 가격 예측이나 목표가는 제시되지 않음. 출연자 전망: 장기 보유 관점의 일반론 외 단기 시장 전망 발언 없음.
다듬은 글
if you find a wonderful business or a wonderful stock is it better to wait for a market crash that may take a few years to come or buy the company as is and ride it out in this video we'll hear Buffett's thoughts on this exact topic but I'd love to hear from you guys the viewers at home so leave a comment down below with your opinion on this video so in five well you did what you wanted I mean you followed my advice I'm batting a thousand we'll see what you're betting next year well I won't comment on the three companies that you've named but in general terms unless you find the the prices of a great company really offensive if you if you feel you've identified it and by definition a great company is one that's going to remain great for thirty years if it's gonna be great a great company for three years you know it ain't a great company I mean it so you really want to go along with the the idea of something that if you were going to take a trip for 20 years you wouldn't feel bad leaving leaving the money and with no orders with your broker and no power of attorney or anything and you just going the trip and you know you come back and it's gonna be a terribly strong company I think it's better just to own them I mean you know we could we could attempt to buy and sell some of the things that we own that we think are fine businesses but they're too hard to find I mean we we found seized candy in 1972 where we find here and there we get the opportunity to do something but they're too hard to find so to to sit there and hope that you buy them in the in the throes of some panic you know that you sort of take the attitude of a mortician you know waiting for a flu epidemic or something I mean it I'm not sure that that I'm not sure that says will be a great technique I mean it may be great if you inherited you know paul Getty inherited the money at the bottom in 32 I mean Harry exactly talked to his mother out of it but but it's true actually but he he benefited enormously by having access to a lot of cash in nineteen in the early 30s that he didn't have access to but in the in the late 20s and so you can get some accidents like that but that's that's a lot to count on and you know if you start with the Dow at X and you're and you're you think it's too high you know when it goes to ninety percent of X do you buy well if it doesn't it goes to fifty percent of X it gets you know you never get the benefit of those extremes anyway unless you just come into some accidental sum of money at some times so I think I think the main thing to do is find wonderful businesses that is fill Caray here we've got the world air there there's what there's there's the hero of investing Phil would you stand up Phyllis Phyllis uh ninety nine he wrote a book on investing in 1924 Phil is done awfully well by finding businesses he likes and sticking with them and not worrying too much about what they do day to day there's gonna be and I think there's gonna be an article in The Wall Street Journal about felt on May 28th and I advise y'all to read and you'll probably learn a lot more of them by coming to this meeting but it it's that approach of buying businesses I mean let's just say there was no stock market and the owner of the best business in whatever your hometown is came to came to you and said look at you know that my brother just died in the owned 20 percent of the business and and I want somebody to to go in with me to buy that 20 percent and the price looks a little high maybe but but this is what I think I can get for it you know do you want to buy and you know I think if you like that if you like the business and you like the person who's coming to you and the price sounds reasonable you really know the business I think probably the thing to do is to take it and don't worry about how its quoted it won't be quoted tomorrow or next week or next month and I think people's investment would be more intelligent if it's you know stocks were quoted about once a year but it isn't gonna happen that way and if you happen to come into some some added money when at some time when something dramatic has happened I mean we did well back in 1964 because American Express ran into a crook you know we did well in 1976 because Geico GEICO's managers and auditors didn't know what the loss Reserve should have been the previous couple of years so so we've had our share of flu epidemics but you don't want to spend your life waiting around for zone six so thank you guys for sticking by and watching the clip it did take me a little while to dig that one up but I absolutely loved the wisdom passed along through there if you enjoyed feel free to give this one a thumbs up and if you are interested in more Buffett videos I'll pops up up on the screen for you guys as always if you are a beginner to the stock market and you're looking for a step-by-step course on how to go from absolutely nothing getting your account set up getting your portfolio built we cover that all through our investing academy you can learn more about that in the first link down below this video but as always I thank you guys for watching I hope you enjoyed and I'll see you in the next video you
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