Jeremy Siegel: The Fed should definitely cut after 'game-changing' June CPI

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6월 CPI가 예상보다 낮게 나와 게임체인저라고 평가하며 연준의 금리 인하를 강하게 주장. 실업률 상승(4.1%)과 Sahm 룰 접근으로 경기 둔화 신호가 있어 인하가 필요하다고 봄. 소규모주·가치주 로테이션은 연준 인하가 확실해질 때 나타난다고 전망. 다만 인하가 늦을 수 있다는 우려도 제기. 고용 호조는 정부 지원 일자리에 의존하고 소매·서비스·제조 고용은 부진하다고 지적. 9월 인하 확률 약 90% 시장 기대와 연내 몇 차례 인하 가능성 언급.

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01. now on the markets is Jeremy seagull professor emeritus of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business Chief Economist at Wisdom Tree Jeremy Professor it's good to see you you said that uh that you we won't see a rotation into small stocks and value stocks until uh it becomes clear the fed's going to cut and that the CPI you said this before it came out could be a game changer that's exactly what happened you saw what happened with the Russell yesterday now what is this uh three steps forward two steps back what what did the PPI say to you well I I I think it's four steps forward and maybe one step back uh there's a few components here that do go into the pce and it's going to take a little while to to sus that out but I I I think that the CPI was a game changer and yeah I mean it was last Friday uh for Scott watner uh closing bell that exactly what I said and I I think the FED should definitely cut I mean Not only was it great inflation news on the CPI Which is far more important than than the PPI but let's look at jobless claims now it jobless claims were good this week but don't forget they reported the week of July 4th which uh you know uh is is always distorted I'm really looking at it next week because we've been on an upward Trend uh not only on claims we've been on an upward trend on the unemployment rate um you know when we hit uh 4.1% we hit the so-called s rule which says that if the three-month moving average goes up uh a half a percent which it did on the last Labor report the probability of recession is very high now I'm not calling for recession but I'm saying that that is on the fed's radar so I'm looking at that uh I think he's teeing up a cut um I'm just hoping that he'll cut fast enough uh that he won't go too slow on the way down the way we know he went far too slow on the way up so my concern is not that he's going to you know cut too much but he he might cut too slowly but the data will tell us what what the judgment is so what does all that likely mean for uh real estate going forward from here so inflation came in cooler than expected and part of the reason for that is uh we're seeing some parts of the economy are slowing down and things are not as good as they look like from just looking at things like the uh stock market which is roaring The Roaring the head it's uh hitting new all-time highs virtually every day the jobs data shows that some areas of the economy are doing really well the overall number for jobs looks really good but when you dig deep into some of the some of the the data points you can see that there's quite a lot of government funded jobs and when you look at other parts of the economy retail Professional Services and manifacturing those jobs are not doing so well and uh so the the the job creation while good is helping to sustain the real estate market but what it's showing is that there's a slowing down of the economy so what we've effectively got is a lot of people celebrating that inflation is Cooling and it's cooling because jobs are weakening in parts of the economy and the betting now is that the federal funds rate which is currently at 5.5% the current betting is that either in July or in September when the FED next meets that the betting is has gone really high now that we're up to in September up to 90% of uh participants that participate to this survey feel that we're going to get a rate cut from the uh current rate of about 5.5 um down to around a 5 to 5.25 what that should signal is that um things like mortgage rates will come down but it also signals that car loans may come down credit card loans may come down loans may come down so affordability could could actually start to look more positive going towards the back end of the year so that is where all the excitement is right now is that while um while the job numbers are looking weak in parts of the economy that actually could mean that while unemployment is ticking up and it's showing some signs of a recession looming the the prospects of recession is still treated as really low and the interest in in the speculative markets is actually that the lowering of interest rates over the next potentially over the next uh 3 to six months we could see a couple of cuts even going out into 2025 that that's going to stimulate the economy uh in various areas and in particular the housing market so uh that's where it's really positive