저자: CliveThompson · 외국인
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마이클 베리의 2023년 기사 인용 후 시장 고평가 지적. 금리 상승과 주가 정체로 약세장 가능성을 언급하나 폭락은 확실치 않다고 함. 고평가 업종(AI·반도체) 회피, 재무 건전성(저PER, 무차입, 배당, 성장) 기준 스크리너로 방어적 종목을 찾는 방법 소개. 투자 자문 아님을 명시.
다듬은 글
Hello dear friends. My name is Clive Thompson. I read somewhere that Michael Bur, that's the man who predicted the 2008 financial crisis and made a lot of money from it, is once again predicting the mother of all stock market crashes. Apparently, we're in for a major crash or a bare market just around the corner.
At least that's what I thought I'd read until I went to look at the article. Well, I found the article and and here it is. Uh you can see that on the screen. Um and then I noticed something as I scrolled down the article. This is what I saw. The article is dated August 16th, 2023. That's 3 years ago.
As far as I remember, the stock market has not crashed and we haven't had a bare market, at least not since 2022, the year before he said there was going to be one. And I wonder, did he get it wrong or is the bare market just around the corner? Well, I wonder what he's saying today. So, let's go and have a look at that.
And I've got I found it seems that he has reduced his bearish bets on two stocks. Uh he's become a little bit less bearish. He's sold his put options. uh and get that put options or bets that the market will go down. He's sold the put options and turned them into cash. So, it seems he's no longer betting quite as much that the market will go down or maybe he's turning bullish.
But I think the answer is we don't know the answer. We we do not know what the future holds. So, it's possible that the market might continue going up for several years, just as it did in 1996 after Alan Greenspan used the words irrational exuberance. The market was very overvalued then, just as it is now.
Yet, and those words caused a blip in the stock market very briefly, and then the market carried on upwards for several hundred%. So the answer is you never know whether the market's going to go up, down, or sideways. But it's certainly true markets are a lot higher. They are overvalued now. And that does increase the probability that they'll either go up more slowly in the future or that we might see a bare market.
So that's what this video is all about. What can you do if you want to be in stocks, but you're worried there might be a bare market or a crash just around the corner? What kind of stocks should you be in? Today's video is about the stocks you should own if we go into a bare market. Around the world, the yields on 10 and 30-year bonds issued by governments are rising to in many cases multi-year highs and in other cases multi-deade highs.
The stock rally that we've been seeing right where we've seen rising stocks for multiple years seems to be stalling. In some cases, it's stalled for several months since about May. Some cases just a month or two. But stocks seem to have stopped going up and look like they're going down. Now, we don't know this, but it could be the start of a bare market.
It could be a prelude to a stock market crash. And the question we need to ask is what stocks will be best to hold in such a scenario. Whether the market goes up or the market goes down, if it crashes, there's nothing on the planet which won't go down with it. Everything will go down together. But some things will go down less than others.
And as is usually the case, the highest flying stocks are the ones which fall fastest and the rest don't fall so fast. But within that rest, there are some which are better than others and we'll be looking at that today. Before we start, let's start with the usual risk warning. Speed it up. I am not an investment adviser.
Nothing in this video is meant to be investment advice. It's for my fun and amusement only, and all the opinions expressed are my own. The price and value of stocks can fall as well as rise, and you may not get back the amount you invested. The risk of total loss is always possible. Before you invest anything, always consult with a qualified investment adviser who understands your personal situation and can take these into account when giving you advice.
In addition, you should always do your own due diligence. Never invest more money into any one thing or anyone stock than you can afford to lose. If you have invested too much money, you risk being driven by emotions in your buy and sell decisions. Then you should reduce the size of your position so that you can base your decisions based purely on the fundamentals and economic circumstances.
In this video, I will answer several important questions. Is it too late to buy stocks? Are stocks overvalued? What does overvalued actually mean? Is a crash or a bare market coming? What stocks should you buy if you fear that the crash or bare market's coming? And how can you find the best stocks to buy?
For the last bit, finding the best stocks to buy. Don't worry, it's not complicated, and I'm going to show you how I can do it really quickly, really fast, with very little effort. And you don't need to be an expert in stocks to find the best ones for this situation. So, to fulfill that question, that last question, how to find the best stocks to buy, I'm going to demonstrate Simply Wall Street's stock screener.
Below this video, you'll find a link to the Simply Wall Street stock screener that I have made for you so you can use the exact parameters I use quickly and easily just by clicking on it. So, let's go through the questions. The first question is, is it too late to buy stocks? Well, my answer is no. Whilst some parts of the stock market are very overvalued and it's a very large part.
It's to do with the technology, the AI sector, there are huge numbers of stocks which are not overvalued at all. They're very fairly priced. Maybe some are a little bit expensive and some are a little bit cheap, but there's plenty of reasonably priced opportunities still to be found. The next question is, are stocks overvalued?
Well, my answer to that one is yes. The overall US stock market in particular does appear expensive. However, this does not mean that every stock is overvalued. Valuations do vary considerably between different sectors between large, medium, and smaller companies. So, currently larger companies appear more overvalued than many middlesized or small-sized companies.
And there's particular concern about certain sectors of the market, particularly artificial intelligence, semiconductors, technology, media, and communications. Next question, what does overvalued actually mean? Well, one way of measuring valuation is with the price earnings ratio. We can compare the price earnings ratio of an index such as the S&P 500 with the historical averages to find out if we're higher or lower than the historical average.
A price earnings ratio or PE ratio as it's known is simply taking the price divided by the earnings and that gives you a number between let's say one and 100. It can be much higher actually sometimes. But a a good price earnings ratio sometimes lies in the area of 10 to 30. But you don't need to understand too much about it.
What you need to know is that a high price earnings ratio means that the stock is relatively expensive and a low price earnings ratio means that the stock is relatively cheap. Of course, you can't just look at the price earnings ratio to say uh it's expensive or cheap on its own because you've got to take into account other factors such as its growth.
But when you look at an index which is comprised of let's say 500 stocks as is the case with the S&P 500, those good and bad, high growth, low growths start to average themselves out into some sort of average. So, what we look at uh what I'm looking at now is the average price earnings ratio of all 500 stocks in the S&P 500.
Since 1980, the average trailing price earnings ratio of the S&P 500 has been around 20 times. That is to say, the price is around 20 times its the earnings of the entire index. And the forward-looking price earnings ratio, which is the uh uh when you're taking into account the earnings which are expected to be earned in the next 12 months, has typically been around 14.6 times over the last uh well since 1980.
So that's about 46 years. Currently, the trailing price earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is about 26.1 times compared with the historical average of 20 times. And the forward price earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is 20.9 times compared with the historical average of about 14.6 times. So on those measures, the S&P 500 is currently well above the average and significantly more above the lower lower than average that occurred over the the 20 odd year the 46 years.
Uh which makes it not massively expensive but pretty expensive I would say. Next question. Does this mean that a crash or a bare market is coming? My answer is no. Not necessarily, but it is possible. A crash is always possible, although it's a very rare thing. But a high price earnings ratio doesn't necessarily predict a crash.
What we can know is that historically when price earnings ratios have been high, and they're high now, the future returns have been lower than when price earnings ratios are low. So, as we're at a high price ratio, we shouldn't expect the historically high returns you've got from the S&P 500 to be continued, the future returns over the next decade or so are likely to be lower than, let's say, the previous decade, but a crash, no, it's not guaranteed.
It's not necessarily going to happen. It might. So, this is what the video is about. It's about being prepared for the crash or the bare market in case there is one, although it might not happen. But I I think personally and this is my personal opinion that I should stay invested whilst reducing my exposure to the vulnerable parts of the market but not being not reducing my exposure to the more fairly valued parts of the market.
So if like me you believe that stocks are overvalued and you fear that that means there's going to be a bare market or a crash then there are some stocks and types of stocks you need to avoid and there are some stocks which and types of stocks which are better to own. So the first thing to know is if there's a crash, the stocks which tend to come down the fastest are those which have risen the most, the most volatile stocks because those are the stocks where people have borrowed money to buy more of the stock and they're leveraged.
And so when they start to come down, the margin calls hit and they're forced to sell those high-erforming stocks very very quickly. And they can those high performing stocks can come down a lot. But there are several other stocks that people get very nervous about in a market decline and they'll sell those stocks quickly too.
And the these include companies like the following. First of all, highly leveraged companies. That's companies which have got a lot of debt relative to their equity. The second type of company which will come down a lot are the lossmaking companies. These are companies which are not yet making a profit and particularly loss-making companies which are technology companies.
They could come down a lot in a bare market or a market crash. Another type of company which could fall a lot, it's a very obvious one. It's the most overvalued companies. And uh we know that that's a very relatively small group of companies, very very large companies uh in the involved in the AI technology semiconductor areas.
And the last type of companies which can fall more than most are the ones which have been relying on a very optimistic view of their future growth. And that would typically include the same companies I mentioned in the previous sentence including the data centers and AI and so on. So what kind of companies can you own when the markets decline?
Well, there there are some obvious sectors which I'm not really going to talk about that today because that's going to be in another video. But some sectors are doing going to be quite robust and this would include things like food producers, household product companies, manufacturers of necessities such as toothpaste, soap or cereals, the health care companies at least the reasonably valued healthcare company.
Another area which can do very well in terms of sectors are the defensive uh types of companies utility companies like water, electricity utilities, insurance companies and companies whose revenues are reasonably assured. Good example that would be defense companies. Governments are probably going to keep spending money on defense whatever happens.
So today I'm not going to be focusing on the actual sectors but rather on the various qualities you want to be looking for in companies which should survive or rather do better than the crashing stocks or the severely declining stocks. Um so I'm putting up on the screen um the the main features you need to look for.
Uh you need to be uh and I'm going to show you don't have to remember all this uh because the screen I'm going to give you in a few seconds does it for you instantly. But what we're looking for are companies with low price earnings ratios. That means companies which are not expensive. Uh companies which have got positive free cash flow because you want to see those earnings turning into cash.
You're looking for companies with a good track record. So past sales and past earnings growth. That's an indication that they've done something right in the past and hopefully can continue to do it in the future. You want a company which has got little or no debt, not too much anyway. And you want a company which pays dividends ideally.
This is my view because you've got to eat. And I like to see past dividend growth. All of those things that you see on the screen are things that people value. And if the market goes down, that's what they're going to be looking for when they come out of the AI technology stocks and they want to put their money safe.
It won't be safe, but they're going to look for companies which seem to have less risk. And the companies I just described, those five features you see on the screen behind me, uh they are the kinds of things which people will value and probably they won't fall as much as the other stocks. So now we're going to switch over to the screener that I have built for you and you'll be able to use this by clicking on the link below this video.
So here we go. We'll go to Oops. Oh, brought it up. And let me put that a bit clear, easier to view for you. So, I'm now on Simply Wall Street. And what you're going to do, wherever you are on Simply Wall Street, you move across the top to the far right hand side of the top of the screen where it says, it's in on the middle of my screen actually at the top where it says screener and click on screener.
And from there, you can start to put in the parameters that you need to to find the best companies uh with the parameters that I'm going to suggest to you in a minute. You don't have to do this cuz it's already put in with the link you'll use below this video. The first thing I put into this is when you've clicked on screen at the top in the middle, you're going to have see several parameters here.
There's markets, industries, and metrics. I've clicked on the markets section to start with, and I put in the countries that I'm interested in. Basically, I've chosen the United States, Canada, United Kingdom, all of Europe, Scandinavia, Hong Kong, Japan, and South Africa. Those are the only countries I want to look at because they're the only countries which I personally can invest in.
If you can invest in more countries than that, you can choose them. If it's less, just choose the countries you're allowed to invest in with your broker. Um the second parameter I put in um it come I put under industries I put no industries at all. I have that doesn't mean say no industry. It means every industry is included.
Uh but if you want to restrict your research to certain industries such as the food industry or the insurance industry or something like that, you can just go into industries and choose the industries that you're interested in. And there's a very large choice. Um and it will restrict your answers to the companies in those industries.
And the last thing I've dealt with is what's called the metrics. It's this section on the far right hand side. You click on that and I've got nine different filters in the metrics. Um, the first one is a market capitalization filter. I set the filter to between 2 billion and infinity. In other words, I'm looking for companies of a certain size.
Now, you can pull this slider back to any other number you like. Uh, but in my case, I'm leaving it at 2,000 million or 2 billion. I've also set I I mentioned to you that I want companies to have a low price earnings ratio. So, I've set the uh price settings ratios which are acceptable to me to 20 and below.
Remember, I said that the long-term average uh since 1980, the trailing PE ratio has averaged around 20 times. So, I'm looking for things which are at or below the average, not above the average. So, I've set the P ratio to 20 times. I also said that we want companies with with positive cash flow. So, I've only looking for companies with a price to cash flow ratio of 15 or less.
Moving down, I've put in a few other parameters. You can put in any parameters you like, but I've looked for companies which are growing their earnings. So, I've chosen any company growing their earnings by more than 4% and so more than between 4% and infinity. I'm looking for companies with growing earnings.
That's a good sign in a company. And I'm also looking for companies with revenue growth, as you can see here, between 3% and infinity. Scrolling on, I'm looking for companies which have got a low debt to equity ratio. Uh here I've chosen companies which have got debt to equity ratio of between zero, which is really good.
I no debt at all, and 35%. Now to put that in perspective, most companies in the S&P 500 have a debt to equity ratio of something like 90%, which is in my opinion much too high. So 35% is the maximum I'm willing to accept. I also said I like companies which have got dividends. So I put in a minimum dividend of 2%.
You can choose another number higher or lower. And the last parameter I'm looking for is some dividend growth. So in the dividend growth I'm looking for companies which over the last few years have produced dividend growth of 4% all the way through to infinity but 4% or more. So let's click on done and see what that gives us.
All right. So, it says here that it gives us 45 results and we can scroll through the companies to see what they are here. I'm not going to look at these individual companies. That would be something that you can do if you've got Simply Wall Street using the link below. But uh basically 45 uh around the world from Chinese companies.
I see Japanese companies. I see UK companies. I see USA companies. I see companies from various parts of Europe here, Norway and Sweden. that there seems to be quite a big choice. Now the in the columns here you can see some extra information for example you can see what the growth rate expected is or what the dividend yield is.
Um you can click on other parameters as well. So it's sorted according to the future score but you can sort on past performance on its health on the dividend score on the value uh and earnings per shell various other ratios. You see all the options to sort the list on. You have a lot of choice there as to how you look at these companies.
But now with 44 companies, you can now start to click on any and each and every one of them to see what it looks like. Now, I like a nice big green blob here. So, this one, the first one, it's got a nice big green blob. And if I put my cursor on the name of the company, I can see what it does. I won't go into what they do, but we're scrolling through here.
And that was Harmony Gold. You can see looking at each company a little story about what it does. And if you want to know more information, let's say I I want to know what this company Genpacked does, I would click on it. Uh obviously I can see that is an Aentic advanced technology solutions company.
But clicking on it here will take me to all the further information that you want and it's all there in simply Wall Street very easy to look at. You can see the valuation how that was calculated. So, for example, we see that this company has a fair value of $121 uh with a current price of $34. By the way, this isn't a recommendation for the company or anything like that.
I just want to show you um the kinds of things you can look at. You can look at the future growth and see what the growth of earnings or sales will be in the future. You can see what the past performance has been like. You can see what the financial health is like. You can get other information on the company.
There's a lot of information you can get. You can might even find that there's been some community narratives written about the company saying what other people think it's worth. So, as you saw, the filter or the screener produces a list of 45 stocks. Now, those stocks aren't necessarily recommendations as such.
Uh they're all good stocks in a certain sense because they got lots of attractive features, the sorts of features people would be looking for in a a negative market. If you use the link below this video, it will take you straight to the screener with exactly the parameters I've just used. So, you'll be able to see your own very own list of stocks, probably the same stocks as I just showed you.
But, if it's the free version you're using, for which you don't need a credit card, you'll only be able to see four stocks in all probability. Uh, if you want the full list, you'll have to sign up for one of the plans. But if you've used the link under this video, Simply Wall Street will give you a 30% discount when you go to the paid version.
And I'd like to thank Simply Wall Street for sponsoring this video. I have personally been using the the fully paid, the unlimited version of Simply Wall Street for more than 5 years now. Um I'm not getting any discount at all cuz I signed up before this discount code was available, but it still costs me less than a cup of coffee a week.
So, as far as I'm concerned, I find it to be very good value for money. And with the discount, you'll be getting it even less than I'm paying. And before I go, I'd just like to say everybody, please would you like and subscribe? And if you do like this video, have a look at the little trot books which I wrote myself.
Uh you can see some pictures from the books behind me. They're great presents for child children of any age. Um and uh if you're going to a birthday party for of a child, it would be a great present. much better than some of the other things that children are getting these days. So that's the little trot tr o t books available on Amazon
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