원문 보기
A very warm welcome to all of you in this brand new video from Nessus Investor Academy. Nowadays, most festivals in India are being celebrated for two days, Holi is also the same, meaning in most places it was celebrated yesterday and in many places it is being celebrated today as well. So once again, Happy Holi to everyone.
So, in this video, we will learn about Doctor Doom. Doctor Doom says that retail investors should completely exit whenever the stock market goes up even slightly from here because due to recession, the market may not perform well for many years to come. So, we will learn in detail what this Doctor Doom has to say, what is the relevance of whatever he is saying for us.
Also, if you are a new investor, then for you also, in the last portion of this video, I will tell you that if you want to start your investment in equity mutual funds, then with which type of fund should you start your investment. As always, this is an informational video. Do like and share it. For the first time, because today is Saturday, so what's the point of the market?
Update: Of course, the Indian market was closed, but all the markets outside were open, let's see because when the market opens again on Monday, it may have some impact. So, if you look at the stock markets everywhere, the atmosphere has been very good on Friday. The US markets performed very well everywhere, through out the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 500.
Very good returns everywhere. The European markets again saw very good returns. We are also discussing that money has started flowing into Europe as well, that is why returns have been visible there for some time now. The performance of the Asian markets itself is very good. In the Asian markets, the Hong Kong market is also very good.
We are also discussing that money is flowing there as well. That is why, in fact, the Hong Kong market has been doing very well for quite some time. After that, let's look at the pre-market. The US futures are performing well, so that means there is complete positivity in equities. If you look at most of the markets and bonds, the US rate has gone up a bit, it has gone around 4.32.
Gold and silver, yes, very good performance. Gold had crossed 3000 per US dollar, it went down a bit, yes, it is around 3000, silver is also performing very well, it has crossed 34 US dollar, performance is going well at both the places, only the performance of oil is good, it is around 70, generally three types of people invest in the stock market, one is bull or bullish, they think that the market will go up, second are bears, they think that the market will go down and there is a third category of people who do not know anything, yet they invest, they do not have any thought process, okay, it is like this, so see, the bull market has been doing very well, very good returns in the Indian stock markets since the time of Covid, after that, currently for the last five months, the situation is bad, so in the bull market, most of the people think that the market is doing well, it will do well in the future too, so most of the people buy, that is why it does well, after that it is negative, after that there will be some bearishness, then most of the people think that enough is enough, now the market performance will be bad, so most of the people are negative.
They will try to sell, that is why the performance of the stock market gets affected, the same is happening right now. People in the third category are always confused, they do not know what to do. For the last few days, we have discussed both the bull and bear views. In the bull scenario, we discussed some reports like Morgan Stanley is saying in optimism that the Sensex can cross Rs 1 lakh this year and in the base case, they are saying that in bullish scenario, they are saying a return of around 40 per cent, in the base case they are saying a return of around 25 per cent and even in the bear phase, that is, when there is a feeling that there will be some problem in the world, then also they say that no, the Sensex will fall only to 5-6 per cent from here, that is, they are giving these three scenarios.
Apart from this, Goldman Sachs is also positive. Goldman Sachs also feels that the Indian stock markets will perform well. Citi is also positive. The report of Moody's is also positive about the Indian economy, so these people are bullish on the Indian markets. Regarding the economy or whether its performance will be good in the coming times, what is the reason, of course, we have discussed many times, the government's initiative, the central bank's initiative, inflation is decreasing, a lot of positive things are happening, okay, so all this is there, after that, who is Beris here, we also discussed that some time ago that there will be no returns for five years, I told you, I had made a detailed video on this also, after this, another Beris call has come from Mark Farber, Mark Farber is called Doctor Doom, so who is he, so see, there is a very well known report called Gloom Boom and Doom, okay, this is a report, its editor is well known worldwide and mostly he takes contrarian calls, that is, he speaks against whatever is going on, but yes, he is well respected, he has very good knowledge, of course, we should listen to what he is saying, we should try to understand what is his relevance for us, so first of all, his statement which is going on nowadays, that brother, he has told the retail investors that the market If it goes even slightly higher from here, sell and get out.
There will be problems for years to come. This statement is very popular. You people also commented that I should give at least my view on this, what I think about it. So, for this you have to understand exactly what he said. Don't form any opinion just because of one statement. Let me first clarify that whatever negativity Mark Faure has, mostly it is about the US.
There is more negativity regarding the policies being implemented in the US. Regarding the US, he says that look, mostly it is speculative Bitcoin. He says that all these things went up very fast and of course it should not have gone up as much as it did. So we are also discussing that, brother, there was a lot of appreciation, I mean, it went up a bit too much, Tesla went up a bit too much, crypto, so well, there is nothing to say about it.
The same thing he is also saying that it should not have gone up so much, speculative trade is like this, is n't it? Going too high is beyond the fundamentals and that is why if we look at the last one or two months, Tesla has fallen to around 30. Tesla's stocks had gone up very fast due to Trump's arrival, after that it is falling very fast again.
Avia has fallen to around 17 in the last one or two months. Bitcoin has fallen to around 13. There is a decline everywhere and many investors have invested here in these stocks or cryptocurrencies, they are facing a setback. It has been facing a severe setback for the last few months, especially you are seeing the US market, that is, the world's most overvalued market market cap wise.
If you look at the market cap of all the stocks in the world, then the US market alone is plus 50, so it is a very big market, very overvalued due to the fall and due to Trump's policies, especially the tariff game, it seems that there may be some problem in the US market and that is why there is a decline there, so this is what they are saying, they are saying that see if all this If this continues, this problem will persist for a long time, and that's true.
I mean, there's nothing wrong with it. We're discussing this on a daily basis. Look, they're saying that it's absolutely true that if we look at the US GDP, the economy is growing around 2.5 percent on an average. But the way US debt is growing, its debt growth is much higher than GDP growth. So, they're saying, " Your debt is growing so rapidly that GDP growth doesn't matter in comparison.
Yours is contracting. If you look at it that way, it's a kind of view. And this is also true. The debt there is growing very rapidly, and if it's not controlled, then of course, there will be problems in the US in the coming years." This is what they're saying. Apart from this, they're criticizing Donald Trump, saying that his policies are not good.
If he continues with these tariffs, there will be a lot of problems in the world. They're disrupting global trade. Economic investors will naturally say equity will rise for many years, otherwise they will say brother, whenever equity goes up a little, get out completely. There may be more problems in the future because overvaluation is also high.
Whenever your equity is overvalued, it needs an excuse to fall. Right now, due to Trump, they finally got an excuse for equity, that is why equity is falling. It may fall further in the coming times, so where is that positive? So, the same natural hedge, what is a hedge? Whenever there is a problem in the economy or there is a fear of rising inflation, what is the hedge?
Your gold is the hedge. After gold, if you want to look at other places, then they are saying silver and platinum. Gold, silver, platinum are saying that there will be positivity here in the coming years. They are completely negative about equity. There is a very interesting view regarding inflation as well.
They mean, you know in the US, inflation has come down below 3, but they say that this 3 is not a realistic figure. They are saying that if we look at inflation, it will be 10 in the US. But there is inflation around, I mean in India. Whenever I talk about inflation, you people generally write in the comments that this inflation is given by the government, inflation is very high, they are also saying the same thing, they are saying it worldwide, okay, you people only talk about the Indian government, but they say that all the governments worldwide do all this, they do not give realistic figures, so this is their view, here this also comes up that if the US market does not perform well, then where will this money go, in which market will it be invested, so they are positive about the emerging economy, okay, they feel that brother, if the US does not perform well, then the money can go to the emerging economy, of course, they are not talking about India in the emerging economy, they are saying that brother, look, India's performance in the emerging economy has been very good, that is why the markets have become overvalued, so at present there are no chances in India, at present there are more chances of going to those markets where There has n't been any significant return for the past several years, like China is saying, China, Hong Kong, these have only seen recent returns, but there have n't been any significant returns for several years, so they are saying that money can go to China, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Indonesia are saying that the performance there could be good as well.
Of course, regarding India, they have the same thing to say, look here, the performance of the markets has been very good, so there has been overvaluation, so in the near future, they do n't think that the Indian markets will perform particularly well, especially in the six to 12 months, they feel that they are not cheap, when the valuation becomes a little attractive, then we will see.
Apart from that, he has said at least a very positive thing, that is, about Indian Prime Minister Modi, he has said that he is a great administrator to me, he is talking about him, he is a genius, that is, even such a negative person can praise someone, it is very surprising, he is saying that generally his view about politicians is that all of them have been incompatible, that is, for the past few years, India has been so He has a huge contribution in the progress we have made, so at least he has given some positivity about India and yes, it does not mean that he is too negative about India, it means that he also said that for years, if you ask me in the last 102 years, which market or which economy I am relatively positive about, then I am positive about India, but yes, he has a concern about valuations, so mostly, whatever I have heard or read about him, it seems that brother, look, he is mostly negative about the US markets, and this is true, if there will be a problem in the US market, then as a knee jerk reaction, there will be a problem in the Indian market for some time, but later when the money will come out, then of course, there will be a problem in all those places, I mean, I can also add my views here now, so I feel that brother, there will be a problem in the US, right now the net reaction will be there, there will be a problem in the Indian markets for some time, there is no doubt about it, but then the money that is coming out will go out, right, Indian markets.
Look at the markets, they have fallen now, and for a few more months, there is scope for mid-cap and small-cap, of course, there could be a little more decline there. Large-cap has become okay, from here it will also fall further by 4-5%, after that it will become even more attractive. This is how we should look at it.
So, large-cap, this year, as I mentioned earlier, it is a personal view, it may or may not happen, there is no guarantee from anyone, you know, it is the stock market, nobody knows what can happen when and where, but the current environment seems to indicate that the large-cap market, which has fallen, will at least come back, yes, it has fallen around 15%, so it will take time for it to come back to 18-20%, so if it reaches around 18-20% by the end of this year, then it will not be bad.
Mid-cap and small-cap, let's see, I mean, I also have investments everywhere, if everyone does well, my returns will also be very good, but yes, nothing happens as per my or your wish, okay, so valuation We have to look at the performance of the economy many times. We have discussed it many times and it is already improving.
So, mostly it seems that there will be headache. Then on April 2nd, they are going to impose more tariffs on the entire world. That is, brother, reciprocal tariffs. Whatever tariff you are imposing on me, I will also impose the same tariff on you. So, there is still some headache left. See, Trump takes it or the market discounts these things.
It bears these things for two-three months, after that it will move on. So, that means there is a headache of one or two months, after that we will see how the market does. Mostly it seems that the market will slowly start recovering from here because the performance of the Indian economy will improve in the coming time.
Now you have a query, I mean, I am a housewife and want to start investing or want to learn. So, look, there are many avenues for learning, of course, read books, do online courses, there are some good quality channels, follow them. This can be a way of learning and I mean, for you or for those investors who are new.
Investors, right? You want to start investing in equity. Okay, I am talking about pure equity, not hybrid funds, that is different. If you want to go into pure equity funds, then you should not go directly into stocks. Start your investment with equity mutual funds, not even with large cap funds like Nifty 50 index fund.
Start your investment with Nifty 50 index fund. See what happens after a few months of investing. Before investing, keep in mind that suppose whatever money you invested, if the market falls, then your principal amount can also fall by 10-20% and sometimes even 30%. Be mentally prepared. Okay, right?
There is no scope that everything will be positive after investing in the stock market. This does not happen, so be mentally prepared that in the long term, long term means 5, 10 years, that is, 10 years, 20 years, at least five years. If you invest there for large cap, then there is no guarantee of anything.
Equity I hope that the returns will be good, but yes, in between when the market falls, whatever your investment amount is, it can fall sometimes by 5, sometimes by 10, sometimes even by 20. The thing is that if you hold it for a long term, then after averaging out, you will get mostly decent returns.
By having this kind of mentality, if possible, check your risk profile first. Visit our website fsinvest.com, you can check your risk profiling for free there. Investment Horizon: Decide for how many years I want to invest. For large cap, keep a minimum investment horizon of five years for flexi cap.
For mid cap, small cap or multi cap, keep a minimum investment horizon of 10 years. If you are a new investor, have no knowledge of the market, sector funds, thematic funds, stay away from these things, it will be very dangerous for you. So datchi
Comments 0