저자: Nick · 외국인
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9월 FOMC를 앞두고 금리 인하(25 또는 50bp) 기대가 높아 변동성이 클 것이라는 진행자의 진단. 금리 인하 자체는 시장 악재 신호로 해석되나, 과거 연준 피벗 이후 증시가 급락·조정한 사례(2000, 2007, 2020)를 들어 2007년과 유사한 타이밍·경제 신호를 지적. 다만 2007~08식 폭락은 단정하지 않으며, 단기 조정 후 급등(파라볼릭) 가능성을 열어둠. 비트코인은 금리 인하가 강세 요인이라고 언급. 워런 버핏의 은행주 매수와 JP모건 다이먼의 경기침체보다 나쁜 시나리오 경고도 인용.
다듬은 글
we are actually 48 hours away from understanding what the Fed is set to do and the consequences it's going to have on the markets. In this video we're going to be addressing this. Welcome to the channel, everyone. My name is Nick. For those of you new here, hopefully by the end of this video you'll become a subscriber.
Let's take a brief look at what is happening. The FOMC meeting is right here. It starts on September 17th, but the 18th is when we get all of those fundamental decisions, and this could truly have vast results on the markets. In fact, this whole week is going to be filled with a ton of volatility.
Right now, if we look over here, we'll see that the Federal Reserve is now probably going to reduce interest rates by 50 basis points at this week's FOMC meeting. In my opinion, I'd love to see 25. Even though this is quite dovish, 50 absolutely shows that something is broken, which might suggest a bad effect on the general marketplace.
But outside of simply the FOMC meeting, we also have some key activities to be aware of this week. These include the August retail sales statistics, the building permits statistics, the Fed rate decision, which does appear on Wednesday, like I said, and the Fed press conference, which also takes place on Wednesday, the Fed Manufacturing Index on Thursday, and the prevailing home income information as well. It is formally a Fed week, and yes, it does come with enormous volatility.
The best way to prepare for FOMC meetings, or FOMC weeks, is to have stable cash on the sidelines. I usually like to buy after the dust has settled, so if we do start to see some important swings in the marketplace, just take a breath, try to relax, and try to keep your emotions at neutral.
But beyond this, let's talk about some things to be cognizant of. Number one, Warren Buffett. We've been hearing a lot about Warren Buffett selling a ton of shares of Apple, for instance, and now also Bank of America. He bought another billion in Bank of America, and that is, you understand, making people think, oh, banks are done, banks are completed, they're screwed.
One component I really take from this is that we're starting to witness drama building up around the markets, worry building up around the markets. Everyone is at that point in time where they may be like, nothing is going to stop us, we're just going to keep the sell-off going. We are actually officially in a recession, that's it, we're done. I want absolutely everyone to understand that I personally consider that we're already in a recession. What we're witnessing right now could be capitulation of the markets before one of the biggest swings to the upside, in my opinion.
Over here we've got JP Morgan Chief Jamie Dimon, who has warned the US economy faces an outcome worse than a recession. I would say the worst outcome is stagflation, recession with higher inflation. Now, numerous people are going to say, well, JP Morgan, Jamie Dimon, they've pushed nonsense in the past, where if we did the opposite we would make a ton of cash. I absolutely do agree with that. Jamie Dimon is 100% accurate in this, but the trouble is the timing. When is this definitely going to appear? And anyone right now is still pushing some bullish charts around what the Fed is doing, but we're also seeing some fear-mongering. In fact, I trust that we see more fear than bullish data and bullish outlooks with regard to what the Fed is about to do.
Over here, the Fed is about to cut 50 basis points in four days from now. Again, recall what I stated: 50 basis points is technically bearish, because it spotlights something going wrong. Remember, the last time they reduced rates, the bull market began. This is incredibly bullish for Bitcoin. Now, the problem here is that everyone is looking at this in a way where there is only one path forward. This means we have to crash, or we need to pump hard.
I want to show you guys a short chart here. We've got the Federal Reserve and financial crisis, which shows us all the recessions, the federal funds effective rate, the Fed balance sheet, exponential growth trend, the S&P 500, and also rate cuts. Rate cuts are in red. If we look at this, we should see the first legitimate rate cut in this chart, going all the way back to around 1981, and we may want to see what happened right after we noticed a good-sized sell-off in the S&P 500. You might not say it's that significant, but it was. From that point on, it did begin to jump. But recall, this is a lagging indicator. It started to bounce up until 1985 or 1984. Technically, when we saw the next major cut, markets went up in price instead of selling off. Then we get another rate cut around 1989, and we have a bit of a flat line in the S&P 500, and then we sell off, and then we go crazy at some stage in the dot-com bubble. This takes place all the way until more or less 2003. Rate cuts in between, nothing too sizable, until the last one, where a recession hits and it became a moderate recession. We sold off heavily in terms of the S&P 500, one of the worst sell-offs in history, as you guys are probably all aware. Then we pump into the 2008 crisis. Here we have 2007, and then boom, we crash with the credit crisis. The S&P 500 crashes heavily, everyone's panicking, and so on. Then we move all the way to 2020, where we did see another rate cut, but do you guys see what happened? We get the rate reduced, and they technically stated that it became a recession. Going off this chart from actual funding recommendations, however, we sold off heavily in the S&P 500 and then we rebounded. So whether we consider it bullish or bearish, sure, we can be in a territory where we're about to pump hard. However, do not overlook the short-term max, which may want to appear.
Everyone reportedly wishes the Fed to cut rates. There is a widely famous idea that a Fed pivot is good for markets, and that is patently false. After the Fed pivots to rate cuts, the market nearly always crashes and corrects. Let's look at history: yield curve inversion, then normalization, blue Fed pivot, purple recession, and bottom. Black maybe, this time is different, maybe not. Here we have the pivot. We have the location of the pivot. We also have the yield curve inversion, and then also the recession, as you guys can see. So the pivots are in red. We have one right here, back around 2000, and in 2007, just like I mentioned. We also have one in 2020. And if we are about to see it all over again, there's another one here. It is questionable what happens next. Are we going to have a sell-off, or are we going to pump? Because what may want to appear now is a first-rate correction, and then we pump. Everyone is simply watching for that, and that is a massive hassle. Even over here, we've got four days until the FOMC meeting, where the Fed will likely reduce by 0.25. Odds are currently 50% for 0.25 and 50% for 0.5. The similarities between 2007 and 2024 are wild. Charts and comments, and yeah, that is simply a very good insight. Now, this is quite bearish technically. This post isn't calling for a 2007 crash. I'm sincerely stating the intriguing similarities in timing and economic signs, and yes, it is very comparable, I will say that right now. But the big thing to focus on here is what took place leading up to 2007, and what has happened up to now, up to where we are currently. The primary thing I want to take from all of that is how parabolic things went leading up to the crash in '07 into '08. We have not begun to genuinely see that occur around these markets. I recognize that you men are likely going to mention, well, what about stocks? Yeah, technically stocks have had a pleasant run-up, but we have not seen something parabolic occur that would justify a huge crash and a 2007-08-like big flow to the downside.
But over here, we have this week, which is going to get exciting. Powell is predicted to announce a rate cut during Wednesday's FOMC meeting, with a 50/50 risk of either a 25 or 50 basis point discount. Get ready for the mega crash. Everyone is almost waiting for a major crash, and that's why I do believe we probably correct a bit, and then we pump. The reason I say this is that, once again, I recognize you guys are going to say, well Nick, I don't understand what you're calling for. You mentioned a couple of periods in time where we did correct and crash. Yes, I did, but the trouble here is that there's a lot of negativity around the Fed reducing rates. If we do have a crash, in my opinion, it's going to be a correction that everybody will call for, lots of lower-rate motion. A much larger crash, they're going to be calling for a 2008-like crash or a 2000-like crash. I suspect this time, in relation to a Fed cut, we can possibly correct slightly, everyone will overreact, and then we can go parabolic. And I want to go back over here to what Jamie Dimon...
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