저자: YoutuBest For You · 외국인
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oh double dip procession is coming we think that there's a double hump in inflation coming which means it's coming down to come back up and there's the problem is that most of this rallying has been because of a bunch of short covering by folks that who are pretty pessimistic and negative after the last few inflation prints so this is not really net new buying that we saw over the last couple days I've been telling all of our startups that you need to plan to have money through the first quarter of 2025.
you must yeah okay absolutely must and the way that I framed that out to them is nine eight or nine quarters of cash ideally nine and the reason is that we have all of this positive news in the offing but but the but the problem is again there is still a lot of risk to the downside we haven't seen David's second you know dip in the recession right so that double dip is going to be expensive and again the sharps think that inflation will come back at some point in the next six months that will keep the fed's foot on the gas maybe it's two or three more 50 basis point hikes the point is Jason you could be at five and a half again we said this last week we're going to get to a point that's probably higher than what people expect that's probably around five and a half and we'll stay there longer than people want that's probably through the middle part of 24.
and if you don't don't prepare for that worst case scenario you're doing yourself a disservice I think the market can start to Rebound in the second half of 24 but if you're a company you need to balance and and plan for the first quarter of 25 because you know again most Venture investors are going to want to see six months of data on the ground that things are better before their sentiment changes and we're just starting to see the drawdowns we're just starting to see the impacts in people's portfolios that will drive Behavior change I mean this SPF thing is the tip of the iceberg in terms of the money at risk you know I went and by the way I did it in analysis since 2018 through 2021 and including an estimate for 2022 we have injected one trillion dollars into venture capital and if you look at historically how money has been lost in periods like this and you layer that into 2018 to now what it basically tells you is about 500 billion dollars of that trillion from 18 19 20 21 and 22 is going to be destroyed we haven't even started to see that yet right and then if you factor in another 100 billion or so from older vintages we're talking about a 600 or 700 billion dollar destruction of paid in capital so there's still for all the good news there's still a bunch of these unfortunate pieces of bad news that have to work its way through the system and for people who are looking at the chart right now you just take a look at 1997 the the peak tvpi was you know seven and a half acts seven and a half times you know cash on cash money and what actually I realized was 5x right so what paper said and what got distributed were two different things anecdotally what I'm seeing in the startup world chamoth is people are taking the medicine and a lot of people are shutting their companies down they're giving up on raising money and then asking me which portfolio company can I get a job at because I on my personal balance sheet have been you know taking a 5k draw a month and I had I have two kids I need a job can you get me a job at Amazon or another portfolio company and a lot of Aqua hires have started to happen and so what's happening is the consolidation of talent people who would be a great number three or four person but maybe they weren't suited to be the number one person are now consolidating into startups with these layoffs at meta and other corporations we're starting to see very talented people who had Peak comp of 300 700k a year are going to go to startups or go to smaller companies and that is also positive more consolidation of talent stronger companies so this is basically what we're dealing with which is like if you look at and these are just a couple of examples but this is meta Amazon snowflake datadog versus Gilead Raytheon and Exxon what is the point of this the point of this is just to show you that we have had a massive rotation away from our industry is the point right where normally the things that we would work on were just so well received by so many different kinds of investors that unfortunately just isn't the case anymore and I think it just goes to show you that the reason why this is happening is because people are hedging their bets about how long the economic pain lasts that's why you know they'd rather be long Health Care stocks industrial defense companies and oil companies because at the end of the day they're banking on oil and War and sickness versus social media and e-commerce and SAS software and if we look at this chart just no matter how good by the way so this is not an indictment on these companies go watch the prediction episode from last year I think that was a prediction episode yeah we got you and I nailed it on crypto we both said crypto is going to Crater these four horsemen here datadog meta Amazon snowflake down 23 to 27 and then the Gilead Raytheon Exxon cohort a eight to Twenty Eight percent up I think chamoth what this says also is we don't think your management style and how you're running these businesses is appropriate for this moment in time please consider uh some austerity measures and some thoughtfulness in how you treat shareholders well I mean it's just watching the number you know how people are running companies I think we took it too far in Silicon Valley we took it too far whether it's okay I I know that I know it's sort of a pet issue of ours because we have to deal with some incredible hubris and arrogance sometimes on the boards of these companies because folks don't want to listen to to reasonable advice and we come off as wet blankets but that chart to be honest is is because of what we explained last week which is when rates go up the value of a dollar that you earn today is just meaningly meaningfully more worthwhile than a dollar that you may earn even two or three years in the future that's why that chart looks the way that it does and if you believe that David's forecast of a double dip procession is accurate which again most of the sharps do and then you also layer in this idea that inflation could come back you have to be really defensively positioned you know you can't take a lot of risk which is why startups have to expect that if that's the dynamic and 600 billion dollars is going to get destroyed in Venture Capital portfolios how open are VC is going to be for business they're probably not going to be that open and so you have to plan I think for the middle for the early part of 25.
here's this really interesting setup we have a bunch of very positive news that I think we all have to process first positive news was that inflation ticked down now here's what I'll tell you there's a caveat here I talked to a bunch of pretty smart Sharps on Wall Street and oh double dip recession is coming we think that there's a double hump in inflation coming which means it's coming down to come back up and there's a bunch of reporting vagaries that may cause that so keep that in the back of your mind but positive news number one is inflation ticking down number two Jason we talked about this a federal judge basically stayed Biden's attempt at giving student loan relief now that would have been a 500 billion dollar transfer payment from the government into the hands of individuals it is deflationary to not put give that money to people it's effectively taking stimulus away from folks number three it looks like we're headed towards a split government which means that we are not probably going to see any more stimulus over the next two years number four Ukraine wins and curs on number five the United States uh announced yesterday through the Wall Street Journal that they had essentially said no to Ukraine's request for advanced drones and they said to Ukraine essentially you need to go and negotiate an end game here and number six China has started to relax as covet policies and G is pivoting to economy first these seven things are macro level things that affect everybody and I think if you take them together what it says is that wow there's there's the potential for a lot of great positive developments over the next six or nine months and I don't think that that was adequately priced in the market but here's the problem and this is what's why we've been rallying foreign
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