저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 그랜섬은 현재 시장을 세 번째 거대 투자 거품의 한가운데로 보며, 단기적으로는 2000년과 유사하게 전개되다 이후 70년대와 같은 디플레이션성 장기 침체로 이어져 자산 가격이 크게 하락할 것이라고 주장한다. 시장 현황: 나스닥은 고점 대비 약 27.5% 하락, 러셀2000 약 23%, S&P500 약 15.5% 하락 상태이며 연초 개장 흐름이 1939년 이후 최악이라고 언급한다. 거품 진단: 가격 수준과 투자자 열기가 실제 거품 수준이며, 연초부터 거품 붕괴를 알리는 희귀 지표가 점등됐다고 본다. 과거 리포트 '대무도회 시작(Let the wild rumpus begin)'의 후속으로 '우리는 이미 그 안에 있다'는 입장이다. 하락 전망: 하락 폭은 매우 클 것으로 보며, 초기에는 2000년처럼 전개되고 이후 70년대식 디플레이션 국면에서 모든 자산이 현재보다 훨씬 낮은 가격이 될 것이라고 주장한다. 비트코인 및 ARKK: 비트코인은 약 3.2만 달러대로 하락해 주목할 만하다고 언급. 캐시 우드의 ARK 펀드는 2018년 수준으로 돌아가 고점 대비 약 75% 하락했고, AMC도 75% 하락했으며 밈 주식들은 붕괴 상태라고 설명한다. 인플레이션 및 자원: 단기 인플레이션은 과잉 통화·재정 부양 때문이라는 데 동의한다. 자원(원자재)은 인플레이션 헤지로 단기에는 유리하나 10년 단위 장기 상관관계는 음(-)이라고 본다. 자원 자산 배분을 권고한다. 자원 공급 리스크: 2011년 이후 중국 성장 둔화로 철광석·석탄 수요 증가율이 0으로 떨어져 자원 업계 CAPEX가 사실상 없었고, 리튬·코발트·구리·니켈 등 녹색 금속의 대체 공급원이 없어 공급 부족이 구조적일 수 있다고 강조한다. 석유·가스 투자도 지난 10년간 크게 부족했다고 언급한다. 출연자 전망 요약: 거품 붕괴 후 장기 디플레이션 침체 가능성을 경고하며, 자원 투자는 단기 인플레이션 국면에서 유효하지만 장기 보유는 신중해야 한다는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
and since i find myself unexpectedly in in the third great investment bubble of my career uh in in basically in the u.s so um i can't avoid it and this is a wonderful day to be having this discussion it's not only victory over hitler in russia day but it's it's also a day where the market is showing signs of breaking down through yesterday it's the worst opening of a year for the s p since i was one year old in 1939 i am a pre-war baby unlike ray and um and of course the nasdaq is down as we speak 27 and a half percent from its high and uh and the russell 2000 about 23 s p about 15 and a half so it's getting to be interesting and as we were saying before um bitcoin from some point in the last 24 hours is down 10 to 32 000 and change so that is getting interesting and arc um kathy wood's wonderful instrument is back to it where it was in 2018 i'm not kidding you uh it is back below this entire event now which is quite remarkable down 75 percent uh from from its peak uh as is amc down 75 percent from its peak and and the other meme stops are in ragged disarray so this is the real mccoy seems to be playing out pretty close to 2000 and so by early this year it seemed clear to me that this was not only the real mccoy bubble which had been clear for a year or so in terms of pricing and enthusiasm but it had triggered this very rare uh indicator of impending doom in other words now and so uh our piece of a year and a bit ago was called waiting for the last dance and our equivalent follow-up this january was let the wild rumpus begin i.e we're in it dudes and i do believe we are and i i i believe the declines will be very substantial this is the third year of the expansion with a very aggressive monetary policy and um so we're in the part of the typical expansion where there's um a lot of inflation pressures because it happened in a giant big way and we everybody's long the world is at it's the end of a paradigm because everybody uh believes that uh they want everything to go up and of course that creates a dynamic where policy is long everything goes up and of course that happens by creating money and uh credit debt which creates debt we we have a market today which feels superficially like and i think it's going to play out initially like 2000 and then unfortunately is going to phase as he suggests into the 70s where the deflationary effects on the economy and the stock market uh will will result in a world rather like the 70s where all assets are simply much lower price than they are today um a word on on inflation too i completely agree with rey on on the short term problems which i i would summarize as monetary and and general federal reserve over stimulus for 30 35 years and there's only one where as the time period lengthens the correlation drops and that is resources and resources drops to such good effect that based on the last 80 years of data every rolling 10-year period that the 10-year correlation is negative so if you believe in inflation you know that resources do very well you also know that in the long run it's strongly negative it's negatively correlated modestly with the rest of the portfolio as we're seeing today when they do well it puts a burden on the rest of the economy and they do bad so there is a very strong case here for a resource portfolio um on resources just a point that um the last time we had a a super bubble in commodities there were very large new mines waiting to come online what has happened since the 2011 crunch when china slowed down in its heavy industrializer and the growth rate on on of for iron ore and coal dropped from double digit to zero dead flat for three years in a row are breaking the back of the of the resource industry they have not done any capex it takes five to fifteen years to bring on a mine they have not been doing this there are no great reserves of lithium cobalt copper nickel even iron ore to come online this time and everybody knows it if you look at the need for these particularly green metals greening metals there are it doesn't compute there are no backup resources and that applies right across the length and breadth of resources they have not been capexing even in oil and gas uh for uh for the last 10 years to a remarkable degree i
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