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arkhamvest is an investment firm which focuses on disruptive and innovative technology from gene editing to robotics and 3d printing kathy wood is the founder ceo and chief investment officer at arc invest she has gained famed recently as her fund outperformed the market she even caused a lot of controversy by suggesting that tesla stock would hit fifteen thousand dollars per share tesla is currently the largest holding of ark innovations etf here is an exclusive clip from an interview she had at cnbc wall street is getting serious about industry disruption and there are a handful of etfs focused on just that arc invest products are built to capitalize on disruptive forces like artificial intelligence perhaps robotics genomics next generation internet you name it and the woman behind them is here with us today kathy wood is the founder ceo and chief investment officer at arkhanvest she joins us here now at post 9.
kathy thank you so much for being here take us through the strategies we mentioned that you tilt towards the disruptive type technologies what exactly does that mean how exactly do you hone in on the stocks that go into these actively managed exchange traded funds sure well our screen is not a benchmark our screen is our research our starting point is from the top down and we're looking for learning curves or cost curve declines that are associated with technology and they're fairly consistent over time depending on the technology and from a timing point of view we want to make sure that we're ready for prime time so we ask the question once we figured out the cost decline okay for every percentage point decline in price how much does demand increase are we ready for prime time so in the late 90s if we had asked that question about most of these technologies the answer would have been no and yet investors were were chasing them and valuing them on eyeballs and other such things today they are happening we're ready for prime time and the fear i see out there when it comes to volatility or disruption or anything that's not in an index is palpable that's the real opportunity the dream was too early anyone who chased it got burned today they're afraid they should be moving into it for better or worse because there's always two sides to a story you at arc invest have become very closely associated with one stock in particular and that is tesla because you made a lot of waves by attaching a four thousand dollar price target to the shares at one point yes this means that you are obviously very bullish on tesla and you do hold it in the funds is that correct and if so is it just a buy and hold hope it pans out for the next 20 or 25 years or is it something different the way that you approach this particular holding in tesla uh we it is our largest position but before i go into that and we are and i'm uh our conviction has increased in the last year or so it's our largest position it's down about 29 this year and it's always been our largest position this year and yet our fund is up 28.
how is that how does that happen yes how does that happen it is because last year when genomics was under assault because of reimbursement concerns and pricing concerns and so forth we were leaning into those heavily so you buy low right we were leaning into those and so our second largest position in vitae which we think is one of the most important molecular diagnostic companies out there writing down the cost curve of dna sequencing it's up 125 it got as low as five dollars last year today it's 18 so leaning into that has really paid off and it's true with the entire genome sector we're doing the same this year with tesla but our conviction level there is so high that it never left our top position how could it be so high i mean tim this is a stock that is if you look at a chart of tesla over the course of the year to date and the one year period this is at best been a roller coaster ride at worst been one that's trending lower in april 2019 kathy wood stated that tesla stock would go to four thousand dollars per share back then it was just 270 dollars per share and today is close to 900 just over 12 months later so if you would have listened to her back then you would have tripled your money so what makes arkhamvest innovation etf so special well one of the main reasons is it's actively managed and as kathy wood states it's traded daily which is very unlike the majority of etfs which are more passively managed and have fixed holdings over a long period of time so tim had earlier mentioned this idea of actively managed etfs the ones that don't necessarily attract just the s p or some broader index is it fair to characterize arc invest as one of those actively managed types etfs yes yes we trade practically every day so we're very active so what does that mean when you trade every day because there's this idea that passivity or index tracking is what etfs are all about they become synonymous but that's not necessarily the case right in 2013 i thought the same i didn't think etfs had anything to do with what i do and we started looking into the rapper and found there was no reason as long as we were willing to disclose our holdings at the end of every day there's no reason we couldn't do an active etf active equity next guest thinks tesla has room to run in fact she thinks tesla could hit thousand dollars a share within the next four years let's bring in arc invest ceo and founder kathy wood kathy welcome i know 15 000 a share is not your base case it's your it's your reach case what is your base case base case where this 700 stock is in four years yes the base case uh it's a five year target so the end of 24 uh it's seven thousand dollars and we have we've arrived at that price by weighting the probabilities of 10 different scenarios including bankruptcy to be honest so we've been tried to be as fair and balanced as we possibly could be but our confidence level that this is this stock is heading for 7 000 over the next five years is very high so you take out your lowest probability scenarios you take out uh the ones that you think are just aren't going to work or the highly outlandish ones where everything has to click exactly right on what bricks is this seven thousand dollar foundation founded is it improving margins is it the lowering the cost of production of the vehicles as they get up to scale or what yes the there are three sources for the increase in our estimate our estimated price target one is as tesla killers entered the market last year we expected uh tesla's market share to go down from 17 globally that includes china to something lower instead it went up to 18 percent and the reason is 17 in electric vehicles or in all vehicles no electric electric vehicle electric this is global there there are many electric vehicle manufacturers in china very low quality but very so what we're learning is tesla is just so far ahead of the pack and i'm talking about the bmws uh the mercedes uh as far as range and other important metrics when it comes to electric vehicles their battery cost is three years ahead three to four years ahead of any other auto manufacturer in terms of the cost declines and so every other auto manufacturer will if they want to be competitive with tesla uh will and i'm including bmw and daimler and all if they want to be competitive like for like they will have to sell their cars at a loss at the same time they're losing their internal combustion engine business take tyler's question to the next level is it do you dig in and get granular on the opportunities when you look at the some of the parts is it going to be panels autonomous drive or batteries that are the new breakout because when we look to to tyler's point when we look at the cars in production everyone thinks they're an expert on what they can and can't do with tesla but is there going to be shockers going forward where there's going to be a breakout valuation on batteries because their technology is so far advanced yeah i think they uh acquired a company called maxwell technologies and they've been very secretive about what that is going to do for their battery technology so what i just said to you does not even incorporate maxwell so yes we do think there are surprises on the battery front they have their own ai chip for autonomous the only auto manufacturer to have one and james wang who worked at our analyst who worked at nvidia for eight nine years uh took a look at those specs and said four years ahead of anything that nvidia is going to be able to produce can because a single purpose is not general purpose so we think they're going to be way ahead of the game on autonomous and that's where the real surprises are going to be because autonomous is a recurring revenue very high margin almost software as a service-like opportunity autonomous taxi networks and uh what what you have baked in the cake from the street primarily are low margin gross margins uh more like auto you know in the 25 30 range we actually think gross margins because of their battery technology could head for 40 on the ev itself and then the incremental revenues from autonomous would be in the 80 plus range and we think that's what people are missing and in our seven thousand dollar target so the scenario testing we assume only a 25 chance that they're going to be up and running uh with autonomous within two to three years so quickly and this is you know near-term do you expect volatility around earnings there was in the last couple years but like for instance they sold cars at a 450 000 annualized rate last quarter right and when you look at their net income it all came from selling tax credits do you expect that to be a big component of it and does it look like that at other places around the world we're expecting really a lot of growth to come quickly subsidies yes they're going to get a lot of credits from companies like fiat chrysler who's paying them 500 to offset so we think that but that's not in our models we never include subsidies in our models what we're talking about right now is tesla is ready for prime time as an av and ev and av manufacturer kudos to you i mean you had what i thought was an outlandish target two years ago or one and a half years ago and here we are and so you have another one maybe outlandish maybe spot on but let me ask you when you get to this 7 000 to pick your more moderate case what's it trading at as a multiple of earnings or as a what will that what will that valuation then be so in five years again we we don't really operate like that we're just trying to figure out the cash flows and the do and then discount them but one of the things that i'd like to focus on is the reason this is such a is going to be such a big upside surprise is because tesla is riding the convergence of three major innovation platforms convergence it's very hard to analyze this in the traditional world right auto analysts are not robotics experts they are not artificial intelligence experts or battery experts we have three analysts working on this model together all of them are characterized by exponential growth during the night we are ready for prime time the sodium the seeds for what uh we're about to witness now not just with tesla but with genomics with 3d printing with everything we do right guys so diving into the charts here we can see if i compare arc innovation etf in red with the vanguard s p 500 etf we can see that year to date it's up by 52.92 percent whereas the vanguard s p 500 is only up by 15 so it's clear that the ark innovation etf has absolutely smashed it to pieces over five years the results are even more incredible arc innovation etf is up by over 200 percent compared to just 47 over the past five years over 10 years it's up by over 475 percent compared to the s p 500's 173.58 this is truly an etf which has completely obliterated the market pairing arc innovations etf to berkshire hathaway warren buffett's investment firm it's clear to see that warren buffett's firm which is based solely on value investing actually didn't outperform the s p 500 index and was absolutely smashed by ark innovations etf this is even true over a 10-year period the seeds were sown during the tekken telecom bubble the costs back then were way too high to play out for for those those platforms to play out the costs have been coming down for 20 years we're ready for prime time these are three exponential growth trends that are converging and that is why this is so difficult for traditional analysts to value this is all we do we do nothing but disruptive innovation because we have never seen as much disruptive innovation evolving at the same time ever you have to go back to telephone electricity internal combustion engine diving into the numbers it's clear to see that tesla is a very volatile stock which has seen its share price skyrocket to a record highs up by nearly 300 percent over the past five years they have seen fantastic revenue growth by nearly 30 over the past five years however they have just started to generate positive free cash flow in the last five out of six quarters while net income is expected to be positive within the next five years i do have a small position in tesla and i would buy more shares in the stock but i do feel at the moment it has an unjustly high valuation given the current economic situation however i will be waiting to buy more shares of tesla on the dips it's clear to see that the fund has a high amount of speculative stocks but also those with large growth potential despite many of these stocks currently being unprofitable it seems arc invest tends to focus on stocks with major growth potential now this type of investment seems more risky however it only takes our invest portfolio to have a few winners to outperform the index in my opinion this is mainly driven by three of my favorites tesla square and illumina in future videos i'll be diving deeper into these stocks and some of the others in the top 10 holdings so be sure to hit that subscribe button to be notified yeah yeah yeah coming in yeah i just wanna win l.a who we running with
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