저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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Grantham은 Fed의 급격한 금리인상과 AI 붐에도 불구하고 1년 내외 내 경기침체가 올 것이라 주장하며, 침체 시 주가가 크게 하락할 수 있다고 경고. 기존의 연착륙 낙관론을 비판하고 Fed 정책이 자산버블을 만든 결과라 봄. 금리는 이전보다 높은 수준으로 장기간 유지될 가능성을 언급. 영상 후반부는 침체 대비 개인 재무 관리(예산, 비상자금, 부채상환, 커리어 관리) 조언.
다듬은 글
I I suspect that they will once again Dominate and we will have a recession running perhaps deep into next year and and an accompanying decline in stock price the term recession often comes with a lot of negativity but the truth is that it is a natural part of the economic cycle the key is to be prepared and to plan wisely with proper preparation and knowledge every economic downturn can become a market opportunity people have successfully built and managed wealth in tough times without a doubt anyone has the potential to become significantly wealthy even in times of an economic downturn while many on Wall Street have shifted Focus away from a recession Jeremy Grantham remains concerned this shouldn't come as a surprise to those familiar with Grantham Mayo van ottero and C's co-founder in today's video we'll explore grantham's insights and discuss how we can prepare for potential challenges despite nearly 2 years of recession predictions from wall Street's top mines billionaire investors and former Federal Reserve officials the US has not experienced an economic downturn some experts have become optimistic about a robust labor market and inflation diminishing due to assertive interest rate hikes they argue that fed chairman Jerome Powell has the potential to orchestrate a soft Landing for the economy even the FED staff economists have abandoned their initial forecast of a mild recession earlier predicted Jeremy Grantham suggests that investors should disregard the more optimistic views of his peers and the Central Bank staff the seasoned investor gained recognition for predicting the dot crash in 2001 and the global financial crisis in 2008 however he's also known for making some off base or at least premature market bubble forast cast in recent years this time he argues that the fed's interest rate hikes still affect the economy raising borrowing costs for households and businesses impacting real estate prices and putting pressure on growth focused stocks yeah I think the fed's record on these things is is wonderful it's uh almost guaranteed to be wrong they uh have never called a a recession and particularly not the ones following the great bubbles they PR themselves in in stimulating the Bubbles as a longtime critic of the FED Grantham contends that Central Bank officials prided themselves in stimulating the bubbles through near zero interest rates and aggressive purchases of mortgage back Securities and government bonds since the global financial crisis especially during covid Grantham now argues that the economy however is bearing the consequences of these unsustainable policies according to Grantham the prolonged unsustainable growth in asset prices primarily driven by fed policy and insufficient investment in producing essential raw materials globally will eventually usher in a new economic era Grantham cautioned that inflation is unlikely to remain as low as the average of the last 10 years noting the under 2% yearly inflation rate in the past decade Grantham strongly believes that we are now in a phase of somewhat higher inflation leading to moderately increased interest rates but when rates are low asset prices go up when rates are higher asset prices go down Grandam is not the only respected figures on Wall Street expressing a bearish view of the US economy David Rosenberg an experienced Economist and founder of Rosenberg research also shares a similar view Rosenberg has stated that we are far from having a robust economy the recession has been delayed it has not been derailed he remarked highlighting that it typically takes about 2 years for a recession to commence after the fed's initial interest rate increase according to the central bank's timeline the current hiking cycle began approximately 16 months ago lately Rosenberg has consistently cautioned about various challenges facing the US economy his concerns extend to China's economic issues in in a property crisis soaring youth unemployment and the potential for lasting deflation which he fears May impede global economic growth additionally he expresses worry that the conclusion of the US student debt relief program will impact American consumer spending and that fiscal policy might be limited following fit's recent downgrade of US Government debt Rosenberg went as far as asserting that banks are increasing their loan loss provis Visions because in his view they anticipate impending challenges in the economic landscape it's worth mentioning that Rosenberg foresaw a recession hitting the US economy in 2022 in May of that year he explained that increasing interest rates would result in lower home prices and a wealth shock leading to a significant drop in consumer spending like others in his field Rosenberg had to delay the timing of this recession prediction over the past year however he still firmly believes that sooner or later the economy will face challenges due to the growing burden of rising interest rates likewise Grantham has been sounding the alarm about an epic stock market bubble since January 2021 and predicting a looming us recession since early last year however he like others had to adjust his forecast according to Grandam the recession is now expected to arrive this year so is AI the big complication and explain uh what's going on with AI and and why it is interfering with the normal course of events as bubbles unravel yes well Lord knows this was complicated before AI raised its ugly head because we had inflation the FED how quickly would rates go up how far would they go up how would the war play out oh my hat goes on and on so it was complicated enough and now we have since chat gbt and October November of last year we have a new little flurry of of Interest very concentrated although the Advent of AI has also helped to slow things down Grantham revealed that it will not prevent a recession the legendary investor Jeremy Grantham suggests that the economy might face a decline anytime soon in a conversation with Bloomberg's DAV David Rubenstein Grandam cautioned that the federal reserve's most aggressive interest rate hiking cycle in decades could stifle growth and pull down stock prices for a while now the surge in interest surrounding chat GPT and similar Technologies has propelled stock prices The Benchmark snp500 has risen by 177% and the tech Focus NASDAQ Composite has experienced a remarkable 34% year-to increase in 2023 positive economic news continues as inflation cools unemployment remains stable at under 4% and second quarter growth surpasses expectations Grantham who previously stated this year that the S&P 500 might plummet by 50% in the face of an inevitable recession continues to express concern about the prolonged effects of the fed's Swift tightening efforts the central bank has raised borrowing costs from near 0 to over 5.5% in just 18 months meanwhile the recession doesn't have to be a disadvantage to you whether grantham's predictions are accurate or not you can brace yourself for any changes by doing the following because we are basically running out of resources we're getting very tight on both labor and important raw materials you know the cheapest copper ores and lithium Cobalt nickel the stuff you need to Electrify the system they have all gone we have no great capex projects up our sleev since China slowed down in 2011 the capex has dwindled way down there aren't plentiful reserves so as we gear up to decarbonize we're bumping our head almost guaranteed on shortages from time to time of these critical metals and then you have the problem of Labor which in a short-term basis everyone's saying where have they all gone but in a long-term basis I can tell you where they've gone they were never born there is no improvement in the baby output over the last 20 years we have slightly been declining number one pay close attention to your budget every month regularly evaluate your budget every month take time to review it and identify expenses that no longer benefit you if you need more money on clothing consider reducing that expense stick to purchasing what you genuinely need and choose generic brands instead of name brands to save a few extra dollars number two invest more in your emergency fund an emergency fund is a financial safety net for unexpected events or expenses follow a general guideline of saving 20% of your income for this fund and allocate 30% for extra expenses such as subscriptions and memberships this helps Safeguard your finances and ensures you're prepared for unforeseen circumstances as an alternative approach consider skipping additional expenses and aim to save up to 50% of your income this ensures you're better prepared for significant Health emergencies or loss of work allowing you to cover everyday expenses from your emergency fund a typical savings Target for an emergency fund is usually 3 to 6 months worth of expenses number three clear out any highin debt during a potential recession reviewing your debt accounts is crucial noting current interest rates rates and outstanding balances prioritize allocating as much of your income as possible toward highin debts mainly on tax deductible accounts like educational loans this strategic approach can help you manage your financial situation more effectively during uncertain Economic Times number four consider your career opportunities during tough Economic Times Like recessions unemployment rates tend to rise it's crucial to think about how these challenging situations impact your job and it's a good idea to have a backup plan in case you face a layoff Begin by reconnecting with Professionals in your network think Beyond just colleagues and include connections outside your current workplace building relationships across different organizations can significantly benefit your job sir you can also reach out through social media or propos in person coffee meetings to strengthen your network additionally consider updating your resume and job hunting tools proactively while reviewing your work history identify gaps and explore further education or training opportunities expanding your skill set is valuable to enhance your worth as an employee whether or not you face a recession related job challenge if you're concerned about a potential layoff consider taking on a side gig like freelancing having an additional income Source provides a cushion in case of a layoff and facilitates building up your emergency savings while you're still employed will grantham's predictions come to pass in 2024 let us know what you think in the comment section below remember to subscribe if you found this content valuable we'll see you in the next one
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